1. 02-20-12 01:23 AM #1
    TruthTables
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    Truth Tables College Hoops Part II

    Hoping to have some end of the season success.

    UConn...-2.5
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  2. 02-20-12 02:13 AM #2
    Roosterfosho
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    Uconn can't shoot for shit. You're really throwing cash out there on that one.
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  3. 02-21-12 08:48 AM #3
    TruthTables
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roosterfosho View Post
    Uconn can't shoot for shit. You're really throwing cash out there on that one.
    Thanks for that, but they covered the -2.5 (although line moved to either 3 or 3.5 for most people who got on it). I would've taken 3, but not 3.5.

    Picks for 2/21:

    Georgetown...-2
    UNC...-6.5
    KState...+9
    New Mexico...-5.5
    Virginia....-2
    Valparaiso...-11.5
    Michigan...+2.5
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  4. 02-21-12 09:00 AM #4
    TruthTables
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    One more:

    Kentucky...-8.5

    KenPom says they win by 13. It could be up to 20. Expect dominance from Kentucky
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  5. 02-21-12 10:51 PM #5
    TruthTables
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    Updating:

    Quote Originally Posted by TruthTables View Post
    Thanks for that, but they covered the -2.5 (although line moved to either 3 or 3.5 for most people who got on it). I would've taken 3, but not 3.5.

    Picks for 2/21:

    Georgetown...-2
    UNC...-6.5
    KState...+9
    New Mexico...-5.5
    Virginia....-2
    Valparaiso...-11.5
    Michigan...+2.5
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  6. 02-21-12 10:52 PM #6
    TruthTables
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    Quote Originally Posted by TruthTables View Post
    One more:

    Kentucky...-8.5

    KenPom says they win by 13. It could be up to 20. Expect dominance from Kentucky
    Update overall through Truth Tables Part II:

    5-3-1
    Last edited by TruthTables; 02-22-12 at 09:43 AM.
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  7. 02-22-12 09:31 AM #7
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    2/22 plays:

    Hofstra...-2
    Mich St...-5.5
    St. Bonaventure...-6.5
    USF...+14
    Wyoming...+6
    Delaware...-9

    Play o' the Day: Hofstra. William & Mary has been playing decently of late (lost close game on road vs. Drexel and beat Northeastern at home the game before), but they have been consistently awful this season (5-24) and Ken Pom has them as the 301st worst defense in the country. Hofstra is similarly bad (9-20), but at least they have wins this season vs decent teams (Iona, Cleveland St., Long Island), and are coming off a 12 point win against Siena (not too shabby).

    If W&M are only getting 2 points in any game, they'd have to be facing one of the real bottom feeders (i.e. Liberty, Towson, Colgate, etc) for me not to take the line. I say something along the lines of Hofstra 62 W&M 54.

    If anyone is looking to throw down a little bit to win a lot (say a three team parlay), go for USF as your ML upset. I'm expecting a pretty close game.
    Last edited by TruthTables; 02-22-12 at 09:52 AM.
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  8. 02-22-12 11:49 AM #8
    TruthTables
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    Wow, almost every line has since changed in my direction. I don't have any individualized comments, but the half point/full point movements may be enough to change people's minds.

    Hofstra...-2 (NOW -3)
    Mich St...-5.5 (SAME)
    St. Bonaventure...-6.5 (NOW -7)
    USF...+14 (NOW +13.5)
    Wyoming...+6 (NOW +5.5)
    Delaware...-9 (NOW -9.5)
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  9. 02-22-12 10:57 PM #9
    TruthTables
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    Update:

    Hofstra...-2
    Mich St...-5.5
    St. Bonaventure...-6.5
    USF...+14
    Wyoming...+6
    Delaware...-9

    3-3 for the day, so now 7-7-1 on the year.

    Wyoming loses in UT, Mich St by half a point, and Del by two. Rough.
    Last edited by TruthTables; 02-22-12 at 11:41 PM.
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  10. 02-22-12 11:01 PM #10
    Ca$hfloW
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    I'll be checking back tomorrow, BOL
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  11. 02-23-12 09:32 AM #11
    TruthTables
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    2/23 picks:


    BYU...+6.5
    Stanford...+5
    Eastern Washington...-1

    Play o' the Day: Eastern Washington. Sure, Idaho St. plays decently at home and EW plays more poorly on the road, but with the talent gap between these two teams, I'll take EW, especially when I can't lose as long as they don't.
    Last edited by TruthTables; 02-23-12 at 12:04 PM.
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  12. 02-23-12 10:15 AM #12
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    More:

    Arizona...-12

    Also, check out Twitter and Google News for updates on BYU's Noah Hartsock. If he can play, you want to grab the +6.5 BYU is getting ASAP. If not, you may want to let the line go (or bet on Zags).
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  13. 02-24-12 12:41 AM #13
    TruthTables
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    Quote Originally Posted by TruthTables View Post
    2/23 picks:


    BYU...+6.5
    Stanford...+5
    Eastern Washington...-1
    Arizona...-12

    Play o' the Day: Eastern Washington. Sure, Idaho St. plays decently at home and EW plays more poorly on the road, but with the talent gap between these two teams, I'll take EW, especially when I can't lose as long as they don't.
    3-1 on the night; updated record overall:

    10-8-1

    Looking good. Let's do it.
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  14. 02-24-12 09:19 AM #14
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    2/24 picks:

    Marquette...+1
    Loyola MD...-3
    Princeton...+10.5
    Cornell...-4.5
    Niagara...-3.5

    Play o' the Day:Cornell. Brown hasn't covered a 4.5 point spread since Jan 27 when they beat Dartmouth.
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  15. 02-24-12 10:48 AM #15
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    Parlay o' the Day:

    Marquette +105
    Cornell -220
    Niagara -175

    Simple parlay tip: anchor your strongest bets with reasonable underdogs. For example, I strongly like Niagara and Cornell to win outright; sure, I can parlay those two and hope to pick up some change, but throwing Marquette at +105 gives me a much better ROI. Obviously it's riskier (and who knows, Cornell/Niagara may lose), but it's a strong strategy for doing parlays.
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  16. 02-24-12 02:53 PM #16
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    Line movements:

    Marquette...+1 (NOW +1.5)
    Loyola MD...-3 (NOW -4)
    Princeton...+10.5 (NOW +11)
    Cornell...-4.5 (NOW -5)
    Niagara...-3.5 (NOW -4)

    3/5 line movements (Niagara, Loyola, and Cornell) are in "agreement" with me, and 2/5 are "disagreeing" with me (Princeton, Marquette). I tend to care 0% about the reasons underlying line changes unless they are based on publicly available information that is causing a market adjustment (e.g. news a player will or will not be playing). I love when lines "disagree" with me, because it means I'm getting more value. Sure, it means that the money is on the other side, but without some data on what that means, I take it as a wash (i.e. the public may be wrong or right, but I'm neutral to it all).

    If I were to change any of my bets based on today's line movements it'd be Loyola MD. I'll take them at -3, but I am much more wary at -4.
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  17. 02-24-12 11:26 PM #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by TruthTables View Post
    2/24 picks:

    Marquette...+1
    Loyola MD...-3
    Princeton...+10.5
    Cornell...-4.5
    Niagara...-3.5
    Overall record:

    13-10-1
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  18. 02-24-12 11:30 PM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by TruthTables View Post
    Play o' the Day:Cornell. Brown hasn't covered a 4.5 point spread since Jan 27 when they beat Dartmouth.
    Quote Originally Posted by TruthTables View Post
    Parlay o' the Day:

    Marquette +105
    Cornell -220
    Niagara -175

    Simple parlay tip: anchor your strongest bets with reasonable underdogs. For example, I strongly like Niagara and Cornell to win outright; sure, I can parlay those two and hope to pick up some change, but throwing Marquette at +105 gives me a much better ROI. Obviously it's riskier (and who knows, Cornell/Niagara may lose), but it's a strong strategy for doing parlays.
    Both the Pick and the Parlay o' the Day hit; picks have been doing great. Will try to keep it up with some good ones tomorrow. If anyone's following along, please let me know so I know what sort of effort to put into all this.
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  19. 02-25-12 12:02 AM #19
    Ron29301
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    You hit on all 3 Truth. I should have tailed that 1. I got stuck with the points.
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  20. 02-25-12 10:33 AM #20
    TruthTables
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    2/25 picks:

    Northern Iowa...-3.5
    Creighton...-1.5
    Georgia St...-8
    Maryland...PK
    UNC...-4
    UMKC...-1
    St.Mary's...-4
    UNCW...+7
    Columbia...-6
    Missouri St...+2.5
    Murray St...-4.5
    (I'm fading Brown hard)

    I should have more throughout the day.

    Play o' the Day: Creighton. This is a team that won by 25 against Indiana St. last time, and KenPom says they'll win by 5.

    Parlay o' the Day:

    Northern Iowa -170
    UNC -180
    St. Mary's -180
    Columbia -265

    Also, if there are any followers out there, please speak up! Would love some feedback/thoughts
    Last edited by TruthTables; 02-25-12 at 10:40 AM.
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  21. 02-25-12 06:17 PM #21
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    Tough day so far (lost Creighton, UNC, and Maryland by a combined 4.5 points), and might lose parlay thanks to Brown (yuck). Some late picks:

    Arkansas LR...-4
    Syracuse...-4.5
    UTEP...+7.5
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  22. 02-26-12 11:39 AM #22
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    2/26 picks:

    Louisville...-8
    Cal...-2.5
    Indiana...+2
    St.Peter's...+21.5
    Fairfield...-3.5
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