[No coincidences]

Tennessee State/Miami (Ohio). Opens at 127.5. Closes at 131. Game is virtually over with 50 seconds left at 62-54. Instead, fouling and scoring like crazy pushes the final to 68-61, which just happens to be right in the middle of the total. 13 points in the last 50 seconds of a game totally out of reach.

Yeah, no sharp double dipped on that one. Totally on the level.

[grizzlies1]

Dude we've been through this before. If a sharp is orchestrating this why on earth is he going to go to the trouble of having to get both teams and possibly the refs involved so that he can win. Why not just pick the over, place all his cash on the over and then bung the ref enough to put both teams in the bonus early and call a foul everytime someone goes to the rim.

There's just no logic in betting the under and the over and allowing yourself a 3 point window to win both. When you add in the fact that some of these basketball players can barely count to 10 it makes the quick math required whether to keep fouling or not literally impossible for them.

I love a conspiracy theory. But you better believe a team will foul down 8 with 50 seconds to go. Teams come back from those kind of deficits weekly. Don't often to win but plenty of times can cut it down get a chance to try and hit a 3 to tie if the other team cant make ft's.

[Inkwell77]

13 points in the last minute happens all the time in an 8 point game. How can one not see this. All the time.

If a true sharp capped this game at 129 and saw the opening number of 127.5 he would most likely make a bet on the over. Then if the number rose all the way to 130.5 or 131 it would just make sense to bet the under using the exact same logic as the original bet. It has nothing to do with the refs or the teams or anything. It has to do with historical analysis and statistics and the individual capper. If you think your number is better than the books you bet it until it gets to your number. Although I ponder whether a sharp would bet much on the under unless he was trying to buy back and hoping for a middle, it all depends on the individual handicapper.

[No coincidences]

Dude we've been through this before. If a sharp is orchestrating this why on earth is he going to go to the trouble of having to get both teams and possibly the refs involved so that he can win. Why not just pick the over, place all his cash on the over and then bung the ref enough to put both teams in the bonus early and call a foul everytime someone goes to the rim.

There's just no logic in betting the under and the over and allowing yourself a 3 point window to win both. When you add in the fact that some of these basketball players can barely count to 10 it makes the quick math required whether to keep fouling or not literally impossible for them.

I love a conspiracy theory. But you better believe a team will foul down 8 with 50 seconds to go. Teams come back from those kind of deficits weekly. Don't often to win but plenty of times can cut it down get a chance to try and hit a 3 to tie if the other team cant make ft's.

All I know is the total got pounded up to 132.5 from open, then dipped down a point and a half to a 131 close. So it did get hit on both ends. If you want to believe it's a coincidence that it happened to land in the middle, be my guest.

I'm not saying a sharp is "orchestrating" this. I am saying it's possible that a sharp knows something about a certain ref or player to feel comfortable double dipping on this total. Why not just pick the over and go with it? Because that's one win. This way, you can win twice on one game.

Teams don't come back from being down 8 with under a minute to go weekly. In fact, it hardly ever happens. Now that doesn't stop coaches from fouling and trying, but a comeback in that actual spot -- given the time and score -- is about a million to one.

Just another very "sharp" total I guess.

[grizzlies1]

I think a million to one is way off. Notice I didn't say come back to win but come back to have a chance to tie the game with a 3. Down 8 with 50 secs to go you only need a 3 and a 2 and for the other team to miss the front end of the 1 and 1. I'd bet something "similar" to that situation happens weekly.

I just don't see how knowing something about one ref or player is enough to risk loosing the juice which for a high rolling sharp can be in the thousands. Can one player really make a total land within 4? No way. Could a ref? In theory but v v difficult to the point of it being impossible for it not to look ridiculous.

Nothing out of the ordinary for it to be hit both ways. Not all sharps think alike.

[ScreaminPain]

Teams don't come back from being down 8 with under a minute to go weekly. In fact, it hardly ever happens. Now that doesn't stop coaches from fouling and trying, but a comeback in that actual spot -- given the time and score -- is about a million to one.

Well, actually the odds are NOT that high. The lead you describe was only 61% safe with :50 seconds left. You can calculate the chances of a lead being safe using the formula below.

§ Take the number of points one team is ahead.
§ Subtract three.
§ Add a half-point if the team that is ahead has the ball, and subtract a half-point if the other team has the ball. (Numbers less than zero become zero.)
§ Square that.


Good Luck on your action...