[LT Profits]

There is lots of talk about -5 being a fishy line, but remember that Mizzou had a letdown loss at Oklahoma State after winning at Baylor, and the Tigers' big win over Kansas Saturday could leave them flat tonight, especially after beating Oklahoma 87-49 at home in the first meeting. Now Missouri could still win by double-digits while sleepwalking, but the play I love here is UNDER 145.5 Notice the first meeting only produced 136 points with Missouri playing at their best. They may drop to the mid-70s tonight, and I don't think that Oklahoma will improve THAT much at home because I frankly don't think they are that good. There is also a real chance of Sooners slowing the pace down to give themselves best chance at an upset. They rank 166th in tempo rating.

[jjgold]

Makes sense

I laid off the game entirely

If it is a fairly close game it should go under..if not late fouls can kill it

[FlipsideRM]

Already have OU locked in.

Good luck to you.

[cleaveland]

It's great to have an analysis like this from you. Thanks.

Something I wanted to ask you is why you seem to favor Pomeroy rankings over RPI?

Also, is there a rating system such those that you prefer for NBA and MLB?

[LT Profits]

It's great to have an analysis like this from you. Thanks.

Something I wanted to ask you is why you seem to favor Pomeroy rankings over RPI?

Also, is there a rating system such those that you prefer for NBA and MLB?

Because they are better? Pace ratings are important and tempo usually decides games, and kenpom is great for that. RPI is crap for the most part IMO. As for NBA, Hollinger Ratings try to do the same thing as Pomeroy for CBB. MLB is a totally different beast because its all about the pitching, Sagarin ratings for starting pitchers could be a nice start, but you have to incorporate the bullpens too.

[LT Profits]

Already have OU locked in.

Good luck to you.

I am actually NOT a fan of OU tonight because Mizzou could still win by 10 while on cruise control. The UNDER is my POD.

[hostile takeover]

Yes under. This will be more of a slow slugfest with Mizzou coming off a big hyped up Rivalry game. I can't see either team scoring 70.

[FlipsideRM]

I noticed, Im on the under also. I think it's a good spot to play OU though

[cleaveland]

Because they are better? Pace ratings are important and tempo usually decides games, and kenpom is great for that. RPI is crap for the most part IMO. As for NBA, Hollinger Ratings try to do the same thing as Pomeroy for CBB. MLB is a totally different beast because its all about the pitching, Sagarin ratings for starting pitchers could be a nice start, but you have to incorporate the bullpens too.

Thanks!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah a side in this one, I would not touch. Mizzou's road defense has been pretty leaky, but OU isn't in their class all things being equal. I think the total is going to be close. OU has good enough shooters to beat a flat Mizzou and OU's three point D vs. Iowa State was atrocious.

[sweethook]

looks good i think your spot-on LT. gl man

[MJT1212]

well i would bet it but i can't because I play with betislands.............................. ........................................

[No coincidences]

There were 136 points in the first meeting, yet they set the total at 145.5 for what reason exactly LT? That doesn't make any sense. Under juiced like crazy overnight at Pinny as well.

This is probably one of those games where the under will look golden for 37 minutes, then Oklahoma will start fouling down by 7-8 and there will be 30 points down the stretch where the total miraculously lands at 147.

[LT Profits]

There were 136 points in the first meeting, yet they set the total at 145.5 for what reason exactly LT? That doesn't make any sense. Under juiced like crazy overnight at Pinny as well.

This is probably one of those games where the under will look golden for 37 minutes, then Oklahoma will start fouling down by 7-8 and there will be 30 points down the stretch where the total miraculously lands at 147.

That's usually a positive sign.

[FilletMaster]

HUGE play on MIZZOU ML for me... Cannot see them losing this game. Not happening. GL to all

[RyanLeafOfBets]

GL LT...

I'll be pulling for a 70-56 final w/ Missouri winning.

[TPowell]

Missouri is a short handed team who just played a very emotional game at home, going on the ROAD against a team who lost at home as a favorite in their last game. Oklahoma wins this game straight up I think

[LT Profits]

Missouri is a short handed team who just played a very emotional game at home, going on the ROAD against a team who lost at home as a favorite in their last game. Oklahoma wins this game straight up I think

That logic usually works better when two teams are close talent wise, which these teams are not. Then again, Mizzou was a lot better than Oklahoma State too so who the **** knows.

[TPowell]

That logic usually works better when two teams are close talent wise, which these teams are not. Then again, Mizzou was a lot better than Oklahoma State too so who the **** knows.

Oklahoma can make Mizzou very uncomfortable with their pace if they can slow it down. Oklahoma has the ability to score the basketball, just need more energy on the perimeter defense

[Letsgobows]

Thanks for the write-up LT. Mizzou -5 is my POD. OU not playing very well as of late and have no momentum going, even at home. I'd also take the over. OU will try to up the tempo to keep up, which will backfire completely.

[DavieVegas]

I love the under as well tonight

[MJT1212]

I got the under 145.5 JUST before it changed down to 145. I've been tailing some of your plays lately LT and doing well. Keep up the good work, your off to a great start this year!

2012= The Year of THE LT

[LT Profits]

Oklahoma can make Mizzou very uncomfortable with their pace if they can slow it down. Oklahoma has the ability to score the basketball, just need more energy on the perimeter defense

Yes and my play IS on the under after all.

[TPowell]

Yes and my play IS on the under after all.

Mizzou can light it up and OK isn't great at defending the 3 ball lately. Saw the Pinny line action though and thinking about playing it

[LT Profits]

Mizzou can light it up and OK isn't great at defending the 3 ball lately. Saw the Pinny line action though and thinking about playing it

Yes and that is where i am counting on them being a bit off after Kansas.

[Puppy]

does missouri really have some players out?

[No coincidences]

That's usually a positive sign.

For the under? Umm, no.

[LT Profits]

does missouri really have some players out?

No, nobody got hurt recently.

[RyanLeafOfBets]

Ok, I convinced myself to tail the under. Got it at 145. Let's see a 66-50 Mizzou win. Cool? Cool.

[LT Profits]

For the under? Umm, no.

Of course it is, Pinny lines are usually on auto-pilot overnight and system moves juice but not points a lot of times. Sharps kept pounding the under until live line manager got in early AM and moved total a full point.

[No coincidences]

Of course it is, Pinny lines are usually on auto-pilot overnight and system moves juice but not points a lot of times. Sharps kept pounding the under until live line manager got in early AM and moved total a full point.

When Pinny's juice goes above -135 overnight, the + side is almost always a cash. Take a look at Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Missouri State Saturday as the most recent examples.

I guess I don't know if the same rule would apply for totals, but that's the case for sides.

[LT Profits]

When Pinny's juice goes above -135 overnight, the + side is almost always a cash. Take a look at Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Missouri State Saturday as the most recent examples.

I guess I don't know if the same rule would apply for totals, but that's the case for sides.

No it is the total opposite going back through the years. And I already told you why. Why do you think on only see crazy stuff like -146 overnight?

[Bcatswin]

Im on Missouri

[HoulihansTX]

Laid the points.

[convick]

I was skeptical initially but after looking at some numbers I am on board. The under is the play here. Thanks for the heads up.