[CappinTerp]

Like Purdue -5 here. Mich. has not played well on the road this season only 1-4 and dont play well @ Purdue. With Ohio St. on deck they maybe looking ahead. Purdue wins by double digits.!!..................GL

[Dom177]

I don't think they are in a position to be looking ahead they haven't been playing consistently enough for that, start out slow and rely on the 3 ball. Purdue could do some damage to them but there's no way Purdue wins by double digits.

[CappinTerp]

Well Purdue may not win by DD, I put that in there because I really like this play and ( if you know my cappin style) I dont use words like pound it, monster play,ect. But if they win by 6 It will be a winner.....GL

[Ckcashmoney]

Purdue wins by double digits. I love this play mostly bc cuse covered last night

[nickspen13]

Food for thought

Michigan heads to Purdue as a five-point underdog, but several on both sides see this as a winnable game for the Wolverines. Boilermakers starters Robbie Hummel and Lewis Jackson are at an estimated 70 percent each, according to those who follow the team, but they’ll all be hungry to avenge a blowout loss at Michigan State Saturday. Here’s a detailed look at Purdue …

The Boilermakers have alternated bad performances (loss at Penn State, loss at home to Wisconsin and at MSU) with winning performances (home against Illinois, win at Minnesota, win at home against Iowa). They’re desperate to hold serve at home, where they’re 10-1 this year but haven’t always played well - and certainly aren’t as dominant as they’ve been in the past.

According to our scout, Purdue is likely to start Jackson (10.7 points, 3.7 assists), Ryne Smith (9.9 points, 43.4 percent from three-point range), Hummel (15.4 points, 6.3 rebounds), Kelsey Barlow and Travis Carroll: three seniors, a junior and a sophomore. Terone Johnson, D.J. Byrd, Jacob Lawson, Sandi Marcius, Anthony Johnson and John Hart are all going to get some time, as well. Some of the time among the subs will depend upon the health of starters (Jackson and Hummel) and match-ups.

On Saturday in East Lansing, Hummel, Smith, Byrd and Johnson, perhaps lagging from a long bus trip due to flight complications, struggled mightily. The Boilermakers shot only 29 percent for the game.

Point guard Jackson is the key. Will he be healthy enough to play 25 to 30 minutes? When he does, the Boilermakers usually have a great chance to win. He was outstanding against Minnesota, taking over that game in the second half. He also made some big plays and free throws in a home comeback against Iowa. He played well against MSU, but it didn’t matter since no one else showed up.

When he’s hurting, he’ll walk around “like Fred Sanford,” according to our scout.

Smith has made big shots for them all season, other than his poor shooting game against MSU. He also is a decent defender and rebounder, having come a long way since his freshman year. He is one of the team leaders along with Jackson and Hummel.

Hummel has not shot well the last couple of weeks, leading some to speculate that the effects of the twin surgeries on his knee are taking their toll as they get deeper into the season. They sit him and Jackson out of practice a lot, so they don’t always have a lot of continuity during practice in terms of having their starters out there together a lot.

All three of the seniors are good ball handlers and the three best free throw shooters, so they will be in the game if the game is close at the end.

Barlow, though, is still an enigma. At times he makes unbelievable plays, using his athletic ability for dunks and blocks and driving layups. Other times he makes boneheaded turnovers of all sorts. He’s a very good defender, and he could very likely guard both Hardaway and Burke at times on Tuesday, maybe sliding over to Burke when Jackson is out of the game. He has turned into a decent (70 percent) free throw shooter after struggling his first two years.

Carroll shows potential at times. He has a decent face up shot from 15 to 18 feet. GoldandBlack.com’s Brian Neubert often comments on how Carroll is good at screening off this defender to open up the lane for drives by Jackson and Barlow and others. He still looks like he has to think about what he is doing rather than just playing, but he is a pretty decent rebounder. Still, he probably won’t play more than 20 minutes.

Johnson is turning out to be the slasher they needed to replace E’Twaun Moore. He’s not as good an outside shooter, but more of a scorer. Someone on the Big Ten Network described him as having an old man’s YMCA game … but his free throw shooting is dreadful, so you won’t see him in at crunch time for that reason. He’s also shown some pretty good ability on the defensive end. He had offseason knee surgery that slowed him earlier in the year, but recently he looks to be healthy and his minutes and production have gone up accordingly.

Byrd, often hampered by injuries of his own, is one to watch. He had a great five or six game run in the Big 10 where he averaged over 10 points a game, but he did not play well against Iowa or MSU. He hit some deep ones against Minnesota, though, that helped. They put him in for Hummel at the four position, so depending on which lineup U-M is using, he could check Evan Smotrycz or Zack Novak at the four at various times. He is a good ball handler and free throw shooter, and a decent rebounder for his size. Sometimes they will go “big” and put him in at the three with Hummel still at the four.

Lawson is a real wild card, a freshman center who tore his Achilles last year. They are getting more out of him than anyone imagined, but he seemed to hit the freshman wall a couple weeks ago. He’s very athletic, can jump out of the gym, but can also get called for a moving screen or a dumb reach in foul. He started a couple games earlier in the season but comes off the bench now. He probably should play the four, but since he has no outside shot, that hurts them on offense when they do that for limited time, so primarily he plays the five.

Marcius has been hurt by a bad calf, but played well for a couple minutes at MSU, scoring three points in the post. But he is also a moving pick call waiting to happen, as well as a dropped entry pass in the post waiting to happen. He started some games early in season … Neubert said earlier in the year that the coaches are high on his potential, but he still seems mechanical and ponderous when he plays.

Johnson, a redshirt freshman guard from Chicago, had some nice moments earlier in the year, can also make some floaters in the lane as well as hit the outside shot, but he is still pretty underdeveloped in terms of strength, which was evident a couple times against MSU when he went into the paint and bounced off Draymond Green or one of the other bigs.

Hart is another wild card. There are games he won’t play due to how well other guards are playing. He is not a very good ball handler or defender, but he can shoot the deep three and has helped them out a couple times doing just that. He has also been hampered by foot problems during most of his Purdue career.

Overall as a team, the Boilers handle the ball very well. They are in the top five or so in the country in terms of not turning it over. On the flip side, this is a very bad free throw shooting team (62.9 percent). For most of the season, rebounding has also been a problem. They miss E’Twaun Moore as a rebounder from the guard position, but at times Smith and Barlow, even Jackson do give them some rebounding help for Hummel and the three headed center of Marcius, Carroll and Lawson.

If U-M starts Douglass again, our scout predicts Hummel would guard Novak with Carroll on Morgan and Barlow on Hardaway, Smith on Douglass and Jackson on Burke. If Smotrycz starts, Hummel would guard him and Smith would guard Novak.

[BoutDemCowboys]

soooooo................................. ........................?

[LockPickMaster]

I hope this is close. Mich +5

[Dom177]

Nick, wtf are you talking about dude? What is your play?!

Terp- How many units do you have on this or whatever you use?

[CappinTerp]

Dom177 I have 4 units on this game and if you have ever visited by baseball thread it is a big bet for me.! In the "off season" (non-baseball) its mostly just 1-2 units a game for me.......GL I know you just joined up 9/11/11 but you may have gone to threads before.

[Dom177]

Nah I haven't been to your threads yet but good luck. I haven't really ever bet baseball because I'm just getting into it. How do you do in baseball?

[CappinTerp]

Dom177 baseball IMO is the sport were one has the highest probability of making $ in the long run.!! I mostly do well in baseball. I have done two seasons on SBR . Season #1 20 games under .500 and up + 50 units and season #2 15 games over .500 and up + 101 units. So one can see that I bet mostly dogs and am very conservative. Just 2 top plays last year 6 units( 2-0), year before just 3 top plays 5 units ( 2-1)....GL

[nickspen13]

Nick, wtf are you talking about dude? What is your play?!

Terp- How many units do you have on this or whatever you use?

Just a scouting report on purdue. No play for me, as a Mich grad hate betting against my own team. Just a little info for people jumping all over Purdue. I think Michigan keeps it with a bucket at the end.

Enjoy the game!