TOP PLAYS 4 UNIT PLAY
Baylor/ Kansas Over 138: WINNER
This should be a classic game and one that i feel will be high scoring. Kansas does play very good defense (549.2 ppg) But I don't expect that to phase this Bear offense that is 29th in the nation in scoring (76.8 ppg), while coming off a game in which they hung a 106 points on a Oklahoma State team that is 33rd in the nation in defensive FG%, allowing just 39.1% shooting and 65.5 ppg. The Bears have allowed just 59.6 ppg on the year, but in their last 2 games they have allowed 69 ppg and they should have some problems tonight vs a Kansas team that is 43rd in scoring (75.9 ppg) and 29th in shooting (47.9%), plus they have hit 80+ points in their last 2 games. Both eam will look to run some in this one, knowing that it is much harder to score vs both of these half court defenses. Let's also note that BAYLOR is 26-13 OVER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997, while KANSAS is 16-5 OVER in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. I smell a shootout here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh/ Syracuse Under 136:WINNER Defense is key here along with a pathetic Pitt offense that has scored just 59.2 ppg during their slide. Pitt had 1 high scoring game during their streak and that was the Depaul game (165 points), and if we take out that game then each one of their other 5 games have failed to top 131 points, with those games averaging 118.6 ppg. Pittsburgh can't score right now and they know the only way fro them to win is with sold defense. It may not be easy vs this strong Cuse offense, but Pitt has held Syracuse to 67 points or less in 8 of the last 10 meetings. The Orange really have not had a problem on the defensive end as they have allowed just 60.2 ppg on 38% shooting overall and a mere 57.2 ppg on 35.5 % shooting at home. It should be hard for this anemic Pitt offense to hit 60 in this one. Only 1 team can score in a game that will feature 2 good defensive teams. I really don't expect this one to hit 125. KEY TREND--- PITTSBURGH is 25-12 UNDER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997, with just 133.8 ppg being scored in this situation.
MISSOURI -15 over Texas A&M:Winner The Aggies have taken the last 7 in this series, but the time is now for the Tigers to exact some revenge. After their loss to KSU, the Tigers have gotten back on track with a couple of solid wins. The Tigers are 11-0 at home and have won by an average of 25.4 ppg in those games. They average 86.9 ppg on their home floor, while the Aggies have averaged a mere 51.5 ppg on the road and 55.6 ppg in their last 5 overall. The Aggies just can score in any phase of their offense as they have put up 61.5 pg on 43.3% shooting overall, including just 28.6% from long range and they have also hit just 63.4% from the FT line. Although the Aggies have the top defense in the conference, they will have trouble slowing down the Tigers. Missouri has too many capable scorers and a solid point guard to get them all involved. The Aggies just don't have enough offense to keep this one close. KEY TRENDS--- TEXAS A&M is 3-12 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons, while MISSOURI is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons.
5 POINT TEASER--- Austin Peay -1 & BYU/ San Diego Under 152.5 WINNER
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Texas A&M/ Missouri Over 135:LOSER MISSOURI is 19-8 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons.
BYU/ San Diego Under 147.5:WINNER Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BYU) if they are an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) and scored 85+ points in last game and are playing a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG). This play is 47-19 since 1997.
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Originally Posted by mrtsummit
