TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
UTEP +11.5 over MARSHALL: LOSER The Miners come in a bit inconsistent in their last 4 games as they have gone 2-2 over that span, so what better way to get back on track tonight than vs a team that they have dominated, winning 7 of 8 in their series, including 3-0 in Huntington and they have not lost to Marshall since the two became conference rivals. UTEP may be just 3-2 in their last 5 games, but 2 of those wins were vs Clemson and Auburn, while one of their losses was by just 8 points vs a ranked KSU squad. Those 3 games where all played in a tourney in Hawaii and while they are 0-3 in their true road games they are 2-1 ATS with solid covers at UNLV and Oregon. Marshall has had a nice year as they are 9-4 overall and they are 7-2 at home, but heir only notable home win has been Iona as 5 of their 9 home games have been vs No-lined teams, while they are just 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in lined home games. Marshall is off a 16 point home loss to Akron and even at 9-4 they really havent proven that they deserve to be this big a favorite over anyone. Look for a solid UTEP team to keep this one close. KEY TREND--- UTEP is 23-9 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons
4 UNIT PLAY
Indiana State +7 over NORTHERN IOWA: LOSER Gotta like the Sycamores in this spot. They are 9-3 ATS the last 12 in the series, while the dog is also 9-3 ATS the last 12, plus Northern Iowa is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. The stats in this game are fairly even. On offense ISU averages 65.4 ppg on 42.9% shooting overall and they hit 34.4% of their shots from long range, while on defense they have allowed 61.1 ppg on 42.8 % shooting. NIU comes in averaging 68 ppg on 44% shooting overall, including 39.1% shooting from long range, while on defense they have allowed just 60.6 ppg on 43.7 shooting. Let's also note that both teams are in the top 43 from the charity stripe. Pretty even numbers across the board and i expect that it would near a PK on a neutral court, yet the team that has lost their last 2 at home and their last 3 overall is a sizeable favorite here. I don't think so. Indiana State comes in having won 4 of their last 5, which included a win on the road vs Vanderbilt. and they are playing very well right now, while the Panthers are reeling. Look for ISU to get the outright win here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Illinois +2 over NORTHWESTERN: WINNER The Wildcats have gotten off to a nice 11-3 and they are 1-1 in they are 1-1 in the Big 10, but I'm not really sold on this team. They have played great defense this year and their offense has played well also, but thy could have problems vs this tough Illinois defense tonight. Bruce Webber's team allowed Purdue to hit 56.8% of their last last time out and you can bet he is not happy about that, which should make it even harder for the Cats offense to get going vs Illinois tonight. Illinois is 1-2 in their last 3 games and they are off a 15 point loss at but in their previous road game they lost by just 4 at Missouri, so this team can rise up when their backs are against the wall. Northwestern is very talented, but the Wildcats lack the size and inside toughness to compete with the top teams in the Big 10. Illinois is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and they should bounce back fro the Purdue loss with a solid effort tonight
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Kansas/ Kansas State Over 139.5:LOSER There has been some points scored in this series as 8 of the last 9 have put up at least 147 points, with those 9 games averaging 154.3 ppg. This KSU offense has been stellar this year as they have averaged 77.2 ppg overall, including 78.6 ppg in their last 7 games. They have also shot well as they have hit 45.5% of their shots overall and 48.9% of their shots in their last 5 games. Kansas has also been solid at the offense end as they have averaged 76 ppg overall and 82.5 ppg at home. They have also shot well and are ranked 38th in FG% (48.1%) while at home they have shot 51%. This is a big Rivalry game and you can expect it to be a bit chippy, so foul shots could pile up here, which should lead to some free points. Neither team is great from the FT line, but i Expect they will still have a LOT of chances for those freebies, plus thuis should be a close game at the end, which could lead to more FT's. Neither team is a slow down team as KSU is 90th in shots taken (57.8), while Kansas is 154th (55.8), plus Kansas has hoisted up 60.3 shots per game in their last 3 games at home. I expect an up tempo game with plenty of fouls as this one hits 150+.
Memphis/ Tennessee Under 146:WINNER This game has a high OU line due mainly to the recent history between these teams and that fact that earlier in the year neither team was playing much on defense, but that was then and this is now. Through their first 4 games of the year Memphis allowed 85.5 ppg, but remember that 2 of those games went to OT. Now in their last 9 games they have allowed just 64.4 ppg. That's a 19 point improvement. Tennessee started off the season allowing 75 ppg in their first 6 games, but in their last 7 games they allowed just 65 ppg, plus they haven't allowed more than 63 points in each of their last 3 games. Both coaches were upset about their teams defensive play early on and both teams have made the proper corrections. Tennessee make look to run a bit, but Memphis has been slowing the game down of late as they have thrown up just 50.3 spg in their last 4 games. Both offense have been solid and both teams can hit the 3 and their FT''s, but neither coach wants to see 196 points scored like the last time these teams met, so i expect bioth teams to rewally clamp0 it down on the defensive end. I do not expect a run and gun game this time around.
5 POINT TEASER--- Duke -2.5 & VCU -2.5 LOSER
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
Marquette +4 over GEORGETOWN: WINNER The Hoyas are a formidable team, but I still feel they are playing bit above their heads right and they will be inconsistent during the Big East season. The did play well in beating Louisville on the road last week, but then followed that up at home with a 49-40 ugly win over Providence, in a game in which they shot just 30.5% from the field. Marquette has been inconsistent in their last 4 games, but they are still 1-0 in the Big East, after a hard fought 81-77 win over Villanova their last time out. The Golden Eagles are still a team that will be in the thick of the Big East this year and they will look for their defense to come up big vs a Georgetown offense that may be slumping a bit. Georgetown is talented, but a balanced Marquette team will take this one late.
1 UNIT PLAY
Duke/ Temple Over 151: PUSHED The Owls have been more of an uptempo team this year and the Blue Devils will be more than happy to run with them. Duke is averaging 82.8 ppg on 50.3% shooting, while Temple has surprised offensively as they have averaged 74.8 ppg on 44.6% shooting. Temple home games have averaged 159 points, while the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games (3-0 this year). Look for a shootout here.
3-4 night -7.9 units. 15-10 +9.2 units
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Ballsyman's College Hoops Pick with write up for 1/4
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Originally Posted by ballsyman
