TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
Temple/ Delaware Over 138.5: LOST -4.0 units What's this, the Owls are playing the uptempo game these days? That seems to be true. The Owls come in averaging a healthy 75.5 ppg and have averaged 59.8 shots per game, which is 39th in the country. In their last 5 games the Owls have put up 76.8 ppg on 44.1% shooting overall and they have hit over 40% from long range. Normally when ya thought of the Owls you would think of defense, but that is not the case this year as they have allowed 70.8 ppg on 44.5% shooting. The Blue Hens come in averaging 68.5 ppg overall, but that offense really picks up at home where they have averaged 73.5 ppg on a solid 46.8% shooting. Delaware has been average at best on defense as they have allowed 67.7 ppg and 67 ppg, but I see the Owls strong offense being able to tag the Blue Hens for at least their seasonal average of 75 points. The Owls last 5 games have averaged 148.2 ppg and that about where i see this one ending up. KEY TRENDS--- TEMPLE is 11-2 OVER in December games over the last 2 seasons and 16-5 OVER after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NC WILMINGTON -4 over Furman: WINNER +3.0 units The Paladins have started the year as 6-6 but they have been night and day when it comes to playing on the road vs at home. Furman has gone 4-1 at home this year but on the road they have gone just 1-5 in their last 6 and have been outscored by 8.8 ppg in the process. NC Wilmington has spent a great deal of the early part of the year on the road and they have a 3-7 record to show for it. At home they have gone 1-2 but in their 2 losses (Davidson and Marshall) they last by just 3 and 5 points respectively. The Seahawks have also lost by just 9 points at both Wake Forest and Maryland, lost by 2 at Toledo and beat Illinois State on the road, so not only has this team been tested but they have shown that they are not far off from turning things around. Playing at home for just their 4th time all year, vs an inferior foe, should energize this team enough to come up with a big win.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Air Force/ Eastern Michigan Under 113: WINNER +3.0 units Air force has played some higher than normal scoring games of late, but i feel that will change tonight as they play an EMU team that really likes the slow pace as well. Air Force has scored 66.7 ppg on 45.7% shooting overall this year, but away from home they have put up just 60.3 ppg. Eastern Michigan has really struggled on offense as they have averaged just 54.7 ppg overall, including just 53.2 ppg away from home and a mere 49.2 ppg in their last 5 games. EMU has also shot a pathetic 34.9% and that wont get it done vs an Air Force team that hhas allowed just 59.8 ppg on 38.3% shooting this year. EMU has not been too bad on defense as they have allowed just v64 ppg on 43.2% shooting, but that may be due more to the slow pace they play. Speaking of slow pace these two teams really like it as Air Force is 343rd in the nation in shots per game (47.4), while EMU is 308th (50.4). Unlike the Oakland game bellow, this will be a game where the shot clock is in play on just about every possession. I look for a game in the mid 100's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under in a Neutral court game where the total is 129.5 or less - in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game) with an average rebounding team (AIR FORCE) (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game). This play is 26-4 since 1997.
5 POINT TEASER--- West Virginia +6 & Missouri -3 LOst -3.0 units
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
DUKE -21 over Western Michigan: Winner +2.0 units The Blue Devils have been dynamite at home as they have gone 5-0 and have outscored teams by 21 ppg there. Duke has put up 86.4 ppg and have shot 53.2% from the floor in their home games and they will be taking on a WMU team that has struggled on defense away from as they have allowed 82.5 ppg on 46.1% shooting on the road. The Broncos just don't have enough offense or defense to hang with the mighty Blue Devils here. Look for duke to win by 25+.
5 POINT TEASER--- Princeton +17 & Santa Clara +6.5 WINNER
1 UNIT PLAY
Oakland/ South Dakota State Over 173: Lost -1.0 units When these two teams get together they have fun as the last 3 meetings have produced 197 ppg, with the last 2 games topping the 200 point mark. Oakland scores a ton, but due to their style of play they allow over 80 ppg. SDSU doesn't score as much as Oakland overall, but they really play well at home putting up 89.3 ppg, while overall they have allowed 70.8 ppg. This will be a fun one to watch.
College Hoops record 5-3(+4.6 units)
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Ballsyman's College Hoops Picks with write ups.
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