[RoadDog]

How's everyone feeling on this one?

[szyy604]

Santa barbara +7.5, no? I'd consider the over as wel.

[RoadDog]

yea, I actually hate the card today. one of the worst ive seen in a while. I'm leaning UCSB but this would be my 4th or 5th favorite play of the day any other day

[szyy604]

agreed, yesterday's was better. haven't made any yet, but leaning sb+7.5, Ecar-5, Web st+15.5, that will probably be it...and i'll throw in a couple teaser/parlays most likely. If i'm truly degenerate i'll play central michigan -9.5, idaho st. -2.5

[Thunders77]

Agree on UCSB + the points here and also the schedule this week.

[testertips]

i'm laying off this one and 152 is a lot of points to be playing the over on...

[Sacdaddy05]

Roaddog whats your plays today

[RoadDog]

Thinking about laying off right now. Nothing stands out. Anything would feel like a force. Plus I absolutely love Saturdays. So much value on the card. If I do play something (which I'm certain I will because im a degen haha) I'll make a thread.

[testertips]

i'm laying off this one and 152 is a lot of points to be playing the over on...

if there was a gun to my head - washington st -7.5

[RoadDog]

Veeeeery early leans are UCSB and Weber St. I'll have to choose because I only make one play a day.

[szyy604]

Be a degenerate road dog, u noe you want to....the card isnt THAT bad if you don't look heavily into the stats and just bet with Vegas like I do.

[Sacdaddy05]

Im thinking its another 10 pt teaser night for me again. Just gotta figure out which teams i want. Won 3 units off last night teaser. Maybe it will work out the same tonight. Im thinking cal -8 or webb st +22 ? / washington -1/2/ cen mich -2 small play.

[RoadDog]

Haha, I cant be a degenerate, I only make one play a day, thats my rule.

There's a lot of factors I look at, and as you know Vegas is one of them. Even still, I cant get a great read on these games.....yet

[RoadDog]

So basically, I make 7 plays a week (one a day) with the goal being hitting 5-2 or better each week. Some people dont like that, but its all about selectivity.

[szyy604]

It's a good rule if you can stick to it lol. I can't, I noe I can't, so I try to be as accurate as I can be when betting a full card like today, you should see me n Saturday's lol

[RoadDog]

Yea, I've been doing this a long time and have tried multiple approaches. I find for me that its impossible to win when playing upwards of 4-5 plays a day. Like IC said once, the more you butt heads with vegas, the smaller % you're giving yourself to win. So 1 unit to me is 100. If i go 5-2 every week, thats 300 profit excluding the juice. Now, I cant go 5-2 every week, but if i go 3-4, its not the end of the world. This type of wagering keeps you in the game much longer. So far my picks this weeks have been

12/12 Fordham +7 W
12/13 Florida Atlantic +13 W
12/14 UL Lafayette +13 W
12/15 Savannah St. +27.5 L

[gwills]

RoadDog that is a solid approach

[szyy604]

Lol, exact opposite of me, I cannot stand losing 1 play a day if I only play the 1. I play around 4-5 a day at least, even with today's shit card. On Saturday's I split the times up, so I treat the morning games like 1 day, aternoon as 1 day, evening as 1 day, I have 9 days in my week lol. However I have to say, until recently when I started to figure something out, I was losing the majority of the time, so is might not hve been the best approach

[szyy604]

Take weber + points if your gonna teaser, and also take ucsb + the points

[RoadDog]

Lol, exact opposite of me, I cannot stand losing 1 play a day if I only play the 1. I play around 4-5 a day at least, even with today's shit card. On Saturday's I split the times up, so I treat the morning games like 1 day, aternoon as 1 day, evening as 1 day, I have 9 days in my week lol. However I have to say, until recently when I started to figure something out, I was losing the majority of the time, so is might not hve been the best approach

I used to be like that. For example, i would place 1 unit on a 6pm game. It would lose. Then I would be so upset that i would put 2 units on the next game, because i felt whats the point of just being even?!?! I actually had to take 3 months off and really evaluate what was the right approach. It may win here and there, but in the end, you're always gonna get buried doing that. Selectivity and discipline are the two most important things.

[szyy604]

It is, and I have it, I don't chase, I have a quota I wanna hit per day, money wise I mean, and if I hit that quota in the morning I dont bet the afternoon, If I don't hit it, I don't, its all about being abe to control your Loss aversion. But this is my first year betting, so I'm still learning a lot. Profited in MLB, lost in ncaaf and NFL, so as long as I'm progressing toward the end of the season I'm ok

[RoadDog]

Well I can give you one piece of advice. And of course this is just my opinion. Stay away from the NFL! hahaha

[szyy604]

Trust me, I've learned that, at most ill bet total, but that league is unreal. Props to anyone who can win successfully in the NFL

[RoadDog]

You know what, Canisius is kinda sticking out to me. UMKC has no business laying 7 to anyone. Also liking the RLM right now. Im gonna dig deeper into this one.

[szyy604]

Love it, if you go into one of the other guy's post, youll see that I proclaimed canisuis is the best play that no one is playing, you have almost 3x the bets laid on the east Carolina game. 75% against and line drops form 7-6.5, plus you add in the fact the home faves in cbb LOSE most when favored between 5.5-7.5, kinda like the 4.5-5 line in the NFL. See? Todays card isn't that bad is it? Lol. I have to go study for a genetics final, but I shall be back in 3 hours to check your final plays, so far I think were on the same page

[RoadDog]

Went with UC Santa Barbara +8 (bought the hook) Total degen action on my part, but I'm gonna stick to my one play a day philosophy.

[RoadDog]

Noticed the line went down to -6.5. Glad I put it in earlier

[CollegeOverUnder]

good luck today

[blackeyeshamus]

watching RLM on UCSB right now.
and I'm on UCSB +7.5 2x but I've been cool lately...
good luck, gentlemen! thanks for the discussion.

[RoadDog]

I'll feel more comfortable if the % of bets on Washington gets up to around 60%.

[testertips]

good luck .. i'm gonna throw some on washington st if my book ever hits -6.5

[str8killa]

[str8killa]

I put Washington in a 5 pt teaser but thats all the more confident I am in this team

[HOT WINGS]

Locked in UCSB +8 earlier. Also liking Cal and under in that game.

[str8killa]

Love Cal. Think they win by 20+

Locked in UCSB +8 earlier. Also liking Cal and under in that game.