1. 02-12-09 01:23 AM #1
    HustlersAmbition
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    Louisville -3

    any thoughts on Notre Dame and Louisville tomorrow? Both teams have had the last 3 days off. Notre Dame is desperate for a win which kind of makes me a little nervous about this game. -3 for the number 5 team in the country is pretty damn good
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  2. 02-12-09 01:31 AM #2
    HustlersAmbition
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    the line is now at -3.5
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  3. 02-12-09 01:51 AM #3
    gameday10
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    I think I might go heavy on louisville, everything points to take them. Only thing I am worried is ND and they are desperate right now and playing at home.

    -ND against conference opponents 2-8 ATS this year
    -ND after allowing 80 points or more 1-6 ATS this year
    -ND as an underdog 1-6 ATS this year
    -ND when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games 0-6 ATS this year
    -ND versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games 0-4 ATS this year

    -Louisville against conference opponents 8-2 ATS this year
    -Louisville in road games 5-0 ATS this year
    -Louisville after a conference game 7-2 ATS this year

    Not to mention kenpom has them 5 point favorites and I have them capped at 6.5 favs
    Last edited by gameday10; 02-12-09 at 01:54 AM.
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  4. 02-12-09 01:51 AM #4
    yUNeeC
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    I think I'm going to be on this tomorrow, but I'm not positive yet - going to sleep on it.

    I'm looking at this game from a psychological perspective. Notre Dame has been losing like crazy, whereas Louisville has been hot. If Louisville at any point in the game gets on a run, I see ND getting nervous and collapsing. And since Louisville is so talented, I'd almost guarantee such a run will happen.

    If you look at UL's schedule/results, they don't win these games big at all, but they still win them. 3 points may be a close call, and that is why I am slightly skittish, but it's as solid as any other bet tomorrow. Basically, I think it looks good if from no other perspective than "why the hell not?"
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  5. 02-12-09 02:20 AM #5
    WestsidePete
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    I'm throwing all the stats out the window on this one...ND had Lousiville beat on the road and blew it...I think they can at least keep it close at home...a couple extra calls will go their way...hopefully everyone takes Louisville and I'll take ND +4 or more....
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  6. 02-12-09 02:32 AM #6
    gameday10
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    Not sure if I am going to hop on this game just because of doubt I have with ND and how they will play, but a game I do like is UCLA -1.5 right now. Checked it out a little, thrown it into my pr system and there is a filter I have that I have kept track of and it is 6-0 since 1/21(as you can see it does not happen often). The pick is UCLA as of now
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