[chiliv5]

Last time I took the time to throw a little write up in with the plays I went 4-0.
So I will try my luck at it again.

Duke -8
Washington is 0-3 on the road. They lost at St. Louis by 13. They did play Marq well in their last game and I am going against that momentum. Number 7 ranked team in the country playing an unranked team.... Duke by double digits for an early winner.

Tennessee -13
This line should be 18-20 IMO. Tennessee dominates every statistical category. Blowout written all over this one.

Creighton -1.5
This should be a good one at St. Joe. However, I think St. Joe is just too inconsistent to not let Creighton cover by a basket. St. Joe lost to a good Iona team, a decent at best Seton Hall team, and at American. I can get past the loss vs Iona, but the other 2 I can't. Creighton will be challenged again today, but they are road tested and good enough to win by 2 or more.

Butler +4
My biggest play of the day. Don't laugh! My biggest play is 0-6 ATS! However, breaking down the numbers and games tells a different story. Ball St has played 2 meaningful games this season. The opener vs Arizona which they played well. I still think Arizona wasn't ready to take that game serious. The second meaningful game was a loss at Indiana St. Outside of those two games Ball St hasn't played anyone worth anything. On the other hand, Butler has played Louisville, IU, Valpo, (I count Valpo as a legit team) and Xavier. Using a horse race analogy they drop down in class today. Their past games have been lined like they are going to return to the national title game, which is why they are 0-6 ATS. I think Vegas adjusted this one too much. I like Butler to steal a win today from the Cardinals. Chalk it.

Kentucky ML -245
I chickened out on laying the points. I probably shouldn't have but I did. I really don't see IU pulling off an upset. I assume the game will go like this.... IU comes out of the gates hot..... draining 3's get up early. Ky settles down, at it is close to a tie game at the half. Maybe IU is up at half. IU realizes they have NUMBER 1 in the country on the ropes and starts playing not to lose instead of win. Turnovers, forced shots, and bad basketball. Ky gets a few easy buckets and gets control of the game late. Does KY cover the number? I believe so, but just in case of some funny business at Assembly (refs) I am playing it safe with the ML.

If Sullinger plays ( which he will) I am taking Oh St as well.

[Goodfella10]

Good luck today. FYI, the Duke/Washington game is being played in New York. I think Washington's ability to control the boards is going to be a big factor today.

[chiliv5]

Yeah I should have edited that.... I didn't realize it until after the post.... I still like Duke though.

Thanks.

[ebbearsfb1]

tennessee playing way to undiscplined to cover right now..

embrassing themselves

[chiliv5]

Not a great start need Duke to open 1-2. Ten is a disgrace.