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CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Friday 2/6/09
Okay I will make my write ups during the day as has become customary in the NCAA threads. I don't really see anything that stands out to me in the college game, with the exception of one total I played as soon as it hit the board. I have already played these games so there's no turning back or line movement watching for me.
Niagra/St. Peters over 132.5 AVG/SMALL
NBA
Orlando-5.5 HEAVY
the nuggets are 4-1 ats the last 5 games in wash, winning by an avg margin of 16ppg. the wizards have gotten hammered 2 home games in a row by below avg teams - not a good sign. projected line of -7.
-nuggets (pending billups)
_______________
the suns will be looking for revenge off of the embarrassing blowout (game was not as close as the final) loss at golden state last game. home and home angle at play for phx who is also 3-1 last 4 at home ats to the warriors (winning by 11ppg). projected line of -9
-suns
_______________
CK cant you see boston coming out strong tomorrow against the knicks pissed off losing to the lakers
2/7/09-
my first college game of the season will be on sat - have to play duke at home off a blowout loss.
-duke
It's time to suck up the loss today and look forward to tomorrow. My pick for tomorrow:
line: lac@** 198
pick: 198 over
Supporting trends:
- The over is 16-8 for the Clips on road games.
- The over is 17-5 for the Clips after 3 consecutive losses.
- The over is 8-1 for the Grizzlies as a favorite.
- The over has been the total for both teams in all their respective games this February (2-0 each).
- The over is 4-1 the last 5 games for both teams respectively.
As I mentioned before, Memphis head coach Hollins wants the team to run and pick up the pace. Both teams are very poor defensively. Let us all join together and be witness to an exciting brand of run-n-gun basketball tomorrow my friends!
CK, St. Marys 36, SF 12, halftime. That was beautiful. You the Man!!
I'm playing the Celt's 1Q, not sure for the game.Originally Posted by maddogmadden86
Here are the 1Q stats for Boston, a game after suffering a loss. Looks pretty decent. Not sure what the ATS lines were for the quarters. My guess is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS.
1. Away vs Hou - W+8
2. Away vs Bucks - W+1
3. Away vs GS - W+9
4. Away vs Kings - W+6
5. Home vs Wizards - W+14
6. Away vs Bobcats - L-6
7. Home vs Houston - W+9
8. Away vs Cavs - L-10
9. Away vs Raptors - W+12
Thank you CK for ur SP's! Keep it rollin!
Denver is also an A bet tomorrow, I believe.
Denver will run all over Washington tomorrow. Billups playing means they win by 20 instead of 10 lol
Some early leans on pucks,
NY Rangers (lost 3 in a row playing Dal who played B2B and are 2-10)
NJ/Atl Over (NJ has been giving up goals last 3 and Atl can score at home)
Still looking at
Montreal (Montreal will start to find their game again)
Columbus/Pit Over (both goalies have been giving up the goals recently)
Hey CK, lot of respect for what you do, trying to jump on the secret plays using the greek and someone mention ** but I have no idea what that is and cant find it on the website. Does anyone recommend another way to put money on the site.
Whatr was the 2h for st marys?
Sounds like a good PM, instead of a public post.
No love for OKC tomorrow night getting points at home versus Portland who they've bet 4 out 5 at home? OKC have been covering machines at home, 12-2 last 14 games.
36-22 actually.
Close till the end but that'll happen with these plays, a win is a win.
I use **, real easy. But i'm not with the greek.
Yes but I have read previous posts about a specific amount of posts before he even reads it so I was just trying to find an answer.
Typographical error....I got these huge fingers and they kinda tripped over themselves.
I believe in CK!! Thanks man
This is the thread for Friday, gentlemen. let's get some info on today's action. Time to get back to work.
i dont think Niagra is gonna be a ck secret play but how do feel about nigra first half it will prolly be -8 or 8.5 they @ home vs a struggling St. Peters team
seen orlando at -5.5 earlier tonight, waited and just looked and it's at -6. Went ahead and grabbed it at -6 because I figure it will only go up.
like i said yesterday:
**PHOENIX BIG FOR ME**
i know, i am no one...but this is too good in my green-ass, humble opinon.
much like phoenix has had little to no luck lately in oakland, the warriors have had little to no luck lately in phoenix, going 1-4 in their last 5. to add to that, this is also the back end of a home and home in which the suns got embarrassed on the road in oakland. for one to assume that golden state will repeat their success two games in a row is lofty. i have seen a thread already popping up on the nba forum about how much they like the warriors in this one. no disrespect to them, but it's just not there at all for me. i had a writeup on wednesday's thread about why i liked golden state...forget it now. not tonight. not in front of a friday night phoenix crowd that just saw their beloved suns get their shit pushed in by a well-below .500 warriors team. phoenix has shown that they are the epitome of an up and down team this year, and the warriors well tends to run dry quick. phoenix is now due for an up, and golden state is due for a letdown. i will now repeat, this is the back end of a home and home in which the home team embarrassed the road team. the road team that got embarrassed is the phonix suns, featuring shaq, nash, hill, even barbosa, and let's not forget former warriors barnes and richardson. now they're at home, and they're going to be hungry. with this wager, i hope to go 5-0 in the last five games involving the warriors. phoenix -9.5.
and orlando. if ck's breaking away a little early from the ncaa picks to take a team heavy, then so am i.
CK,
I was just looking the over you like and I see for 1st half Niagra is Team Total 63. I would think that 63 would be a considerable amount less that half of the game spread so isn't
Niagra OVER 63 1st Half a good play ?
I am glad to see that some noticed by note about Stanford yesterday. Its all about sharing info and taking the book's money. For those that saw it and made some extra cheese congrats. I am very glad to have been of service to some and more happy to put something on the table for the group good.
Thanks to CK and the mafia for cleaning up the thread. We went to a place we never should have been. Reminded me of covers for a week or so and that is NOT a fond memory at all.
definitely on the suns. They handle business at home against the warriors and coming off an SU loss in a home to home situation, the books had to drop a high number to get people on GS.
PHO -9.5
I took sacto last time the jazz came to town and the game was mine until late in the 4th quarter. This time sacto has had 4 days to stew on the a$$ whooping the suns laid on them on monday and will be hungry to play better. The jazz meanwhile are on a back to back straight off laying an a$$ whooping on the mavs, in the comfort of their home crowd. Now they have to fly to the hostile sacto where they play a team that has done alright against them at home. We all know how good fading jazz on the road can be if done appropriately, well here it is, they should be catching more points than last time for comfort sake too.
SAC +5 (guess)
feeling denver, have to research it more, but dex and morr are good starter points. Also probably have to roll with CK on the magic, been waiting for him to get back to the NBA, because i'm not comfortable laying good money on college.
also, i was leaning on the over in the memphis, clips game, phoenix may have convinced me to lay it.
oh and for what it's worth... i no longer consider back to backs as a hamper to the lakers because of bench depth, they seem to be just fine and fresh. Not to mention, kobe is one of the best in the game at conditioning and performing late.
Last edited by wangichu; 02-06-09 at 04:49 AM.
Hello All,
I am fairly new to the forum. I may have some ideas of betting strategies that may pay off in the right situation. Can anyone tell me how often does a spread go up or down from the initial spread to gametime spread? For example the Nuggets Vs Spurs game where the initial spread was -5.5 and it jumped up to -11.5 at game time?
adding charlotte. they already covered a couple of 8 point spreads in ATL, who couldn't blow them out at home, now (if i'm not mistaken) charlotte gets a shot at the dex double revenge special. the bobs should be catching some points here, but they'll probably win SU, so there should be some good money to be made on this game.
CHAR +3(guess)/ML
that was about as big of a fluke as could happen. The only reason that spread jumped like that was coach pop's late flukish decision to sit the big 3 even though only one of them was hurt. As for general line movement, that really depends on a few factors... which side the public is on, which side the books believe will take, and how much of the public money is for or against the books. Don't really think it's anything that can be acurately or appropriately quantified.
Well anyways incase this ever happens again, I want everyone to take advantage of it. So that Denver and Spurs game I did my strategy which doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out. I was already going for Denver -5.5 so I initially threw some money down not knowing about the other spread with a bookie who also only charges 5% juice. Later the spread went up to -11.5 so I made another bet with another bookie going Spurs +11.5 the same amt wager. Automatically right there i covered all possible outcomes and could not lose any of my bets except Juice for one of wagers and with the possibility of winning both bets. So using random numbers 1000 apples for Nuggets -5.5 and 1000 apples for the Spurs +11.5 i covered all possible game ending outcomes with the extra bonus of only losing 5% of 1000 which is 50 apples and a chance to win 2000 apples(odds 40 to 1) if Denver won by 6, 7, ,8, 9 or 10 (which i believe is better than 1/40 chance). I don't have exact numbers but whenever I see a freak of nature like that in spreads, i have seen the outcome hit many times (personally around 50% even in football). and I remember someone saying 7 hits a lot in basketball, i would even risk a small wager if the juice is not too high if spread was 6.5 and 7.5. Ideally this would be ur side bet and if you really favor a side you would throw a lil more on one spread to cover the juice and make a lil. These situations don't come often but they do occur.
Please comment and advise and help perfect. I want to follow CK's footsteps and one day make this be a Secret Play =)
wow I have NOT been able to get on this site for 3 DAYS,how did you guys? It kept telling me the site was down,it wasnt down for you guys?
CK i assume we will be fading the Lakers heavy in their next game. Are we still doing that after a team beats the Celtics
what are you - the forum police?? lol
thats a great question that im sure many could benefit from.
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