[Bezerk15]

I am going to lay my cap out here with an adjustment from my previous post on another thread...so after further review...

Take a look at Northeastern riding into William & Mary, sitting currently at -8 or -8.5, depending on your hook...line opened last night -9...Northeastern is riding a four game winning streak and in the midst of a cupcake portion of the CAA (Delaware, W&M, and UNCW) before battling Drexel and George Mason...

My initial view was for: "NU to get out BIG and Early"

I see it playing out a little different...
William & Mary has lost their last five conference games at Home, opposing teams have covered ATS in 4 of 5, the exception being a PUSH against George Mason. The interesting figure is W&M's ability to keep these games close in the 1st Half...

Here is a breakdown of the last five home games for William & Mary and the most glaring statistics that move me to my play...(all statistics are for W&M 1st half and 2nd half)

vs. Georgia St.
1h score GSU 20 - WM 18
FG 1h 38% ----- 2h 40%
3pt 1h 22% ----- 2h 23%
FT 1h 0% ----- 2h 66%
2h score GSU 38 - WM 33


vs. Towson
1h score TU 37 - WM 36
FG 1h 56% ----- 2h 33%
3pt 1h 57% ----- 2h 40%
FT 1h 42% ------ 2h 33%
2h score TU 32 - WM 20

vs. George Mason
1h score GMU 29 - WM 26
FG 1h 34% ----- 2h 38%
3pt 1h 20% ----- 2h 26%
FT 1h 57% ------ 2h 60%
2h score GMU 32 - WM 31

vs. James Madison
1h score JMU 29 - WM 29
FG 1h 42% ----- 2h 25%
3pt 1h 20% ----- 2h 17%
FT 1h 83% ------ 2h 76%
2h score JMU 45 - WM 36

vs. Old Dominion
1h score ODU 23 - WM 23
FG 1h 39% ----- 2h 34%
3pt 1h 37% ----- 2h 40%
FT 1h 33% ------ 2h 100%
2h score ODU 39 - WM 27

This as a team that characteristically seems to just fade as the game progresses, especially to sub-par teams, hence a 1-10 conference record and 0-6 at home. There is one exception, they played a healthy George Mason tight throughout the game...Sitting at the bottom of the CAA with nothing to look forward to but a chance to upset the Conference leader Northeastern - two teams that shared the middle of the pack in the CAA for the past five years - W&M will give them everything they have in a game that is essentially their season....but for 1 HALF ONLY.

My play - William & Mary 1H +4.5

Disclaimer - this package comes with a NO GUARANTEEEEE warning.

[BiffTFinancial]

That's some good intel and analysis. As a W&M alum, I can attest first-hand that this is a trend that dates back at least to the early 90s. I wish that I had long-term stats handy to back up that statement, but suffice it to say that the Tribe's trademark lack of athleticism leading to abysmal second half showings [esp against more athletic opponents] is a tradition that probably pre-dates Lou Holtz's years at the school. Fading the Tribe second half is also never a bad idea, particularly against the likes of VCU, GMU, ODU, etc.

[Bezerk15]

I appreciate the response...that'sthe play on the game tonight - Northeastern with the travel and overlooking a team that they spanked at home early in the season - W&M keeps it tight for the 1H and then load up on Northeastern to finish them off in the 2nd Half.

BOL tonight!

[BiffTFinancial]

Nice - Tribe leads outright at half. Good call. NE 2nd half looks like the second half play. VCU 2nd half has potential too.

[Bezerk15]

Thanks for the LOVE!!! Nobody else gave this a shot!
I appreciate it!

[BiffTFinancial]

No problem. CAA hoops present some great wagering values. Too bad Tribe didn't perform their usual second half vanishing act. My theory is that, the chicks at W&M are so fugly, visiting teams are inflicted with some type of vertigo for the first half adjusting to their surroundings at W&M Hall, an effect that wears off by second half as they get used to it. The only explanation that I can find for NE not covering 2H line is that perhaps it was ladies night - sensory overload and they never adjusted? Oh well, still agree with your analysis and label last night's second half as something of an aberration.