[DerekMadden]

Found this article online and it has been very kind to me over the past few weeks!


Totals and Bad College Basketball Teams
By Allen Moody, About.com Guide
Filed In:Basketball Betting


Totals and Bad College Basketball Teams

The idea for this article came to me as I was following the San Francisco at Loyola college basketball game on Feb. 26, 2009. Several handicappers I respect were both on the game total to go over 130 points, so naturally, I tagged along.
When you have been betting college basketball totals for any length of time, you soon realize that happens in the final two minutes often makes all the difference in the world. The trailing team will often start fouling to extend the game, and it isn't all that unusual to see 15 to 20 points scored in that time.

So, when I saw a score of 59-57 with 2:44 remaining in the San Francisco game, I figured we would have a chance for the game to go over.

But both teams proceeded to show exactly why they are bad teams and instead of a last-minute scoring flurry, these two teams combined for a grand total of two points during that span, as San Francisco had two turnovers, two missed field goals and a pair of missed free throws before Loyola hit a free throw with 16 seconds left.

Instead of putting up a potential game-tying 3-pointer, San Francisco proceeded to turn the ball over once again.

Simply put, bad basketball teams are bad basketball teams for one primary reason — they can't score. And when two such teams are meeting each other, the under is probably the side to be on.

Making the College Basketball Line

When the oddsmakers make the totals on college basketball games, they will factor in a team's offensive and defensive abilities. And poor basketball teams will almost always have a low scoring average and allow quite a few more points to the opposition.
But when two poor teams collide on the court, the defensive averages don't mean nearly as much, as the opposition is incapable to taking advantage of an opponents' poor defense, as they can't score themselves.

Using the San Francisco at Loyola game as an example, San Francisco entered the game scoring 67.3 points and allowing 70.3, while hitting 43.3-percent of its field goals and allowing 45.8-percent on defense.

Loyola came into the contest scoring a meager 55.4 points per game on 34.9-percent shooting and allowing 72.3 points a game on 46.2-percent shooting.

But, as everybody soon saw, there was good reason why San Francisco was 10-17 and Loyola was 2-26. They couldn't shoot that well or take care of the basketball and it made no difference both teams were allowing more than 70 points a game.

When poor teams meet, the end result is often ugly, which for somebody betting the under, is a thing of beauty.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/b...ncaatotals.htm

[ThingsFallApart]

Good article.

I've come to handle over/unders carefully and have been all right at it. The two biggest factors you have to look at:

1. If the game is two good to great teams and the spread is close, the likelihood of it going over increases. Like he said, you have to account for about 15 points being scored in the last 120 seconds.

2. If there is a mismatch with the better team at home you have to look at the first half. These are usually closer than the full game total but in a full game total you dont know if a team up 20 is going to be taking possessions the full 35 or just simply running their offense and playing poor defense and not running on fast breaks.

Like in football, the overs happen more often in the begining of the year and the books adjust after the first 1/4 of the season.

Hope that helps those out there.