[ipickwinners]

im thinking about taking duke ML +310

[LT Profits]

i dont like hearing that from LT, did you take duke +8 lt?


nvm just checked your thread

I didn't take the -5.5 when I had the chance and I am the one that started this thread. By thee time I got around to checking lines again, it was -7.5 and I lost interest. I still think my -4 first half is the best value right NOW, although I envy those that bet -5.5 last night.

[mw00]

-7 now

public all over duke huge here.

osu ml probably best play.

are you a bookie? if you just look in this thread alone, it's giving you an idea who is betting what...doubt the public is heavily on duke. not saying it wont lose but just saying how you know this unless you had access to a big book.

[Serbone]

HUH? Are you new here? LOL It obviously means that sharps are on Ohio State and squares are on Duke. If I have to explain why, you probably shouldn't be betting. (hint: do a search on RLM). Now obviously, RLM isn't 100%, but better to be on the sharp side, so those that bet Ohio State early are on the right side. Those who waited until line crossed -7 probably lost their edge.

No, I completely understand, RLM.
There are weekends when you can find, say 4-5 good RLM's in NCAA football and bet that way and go 4-1. Other weekends, you go 1-4.
I get it, Bania.
BUT the data bases are different, individual, compiled, all LV, all offshore, % of bets, % of dollars.
What was the actual opening line? Not always sure. And when do you decide? Mid afternoon like the guy on this board did? 66%? From where?
I am just saying that if you handicap the game, players, coaches, experience, size, take Duke + 8. I did.
Duke is bigger and more experienced and are deeper at the guard spot and have superior coaching.
Sure Sullinger and Buford are outstanding and OSU could cover.
Reverse line movement and "the public" betting are something to look at, but you have to consider the source. I have seen where one source says 60% is on one team, and another says 65% is on the OTHER, same game.
And RLM? You cannot trust the data all the time, and sometimes you do not know if a huge bet skewed the numbers. Etc.
Too many newbies get into that and get buried. They hear "the public" is on one side and think that they should take the "other" so they are sharp. But the data? Where is it from?
Some times you look at online data and 75% take one side.
Then, uh, a local says 100% took the other side. So?
Not RLM but everyone is betting on Houston in NCAA football... 90+%... practically every game... they keep covering. The public.
DUKE + 8.

[TheLock]

Ohio St. by double digits.

I think so too but were HUGH on Ohio St ML

Got it early when it was -260

[brooks85]

I didn't take the -5.5 when I had the chance and I am the one that started this thread. By thee time I got around to checking lines again, it was -7.5 and I lost interest. I still think my -4 first half is the best value right NOW, although I envy those that bet -5.5 last night.

ya i know how that goes, i stared at the line for awhile last night. And the line movement today is crazy, normally with movement like this, especially on underdogs, Id bet more but im just letting the -5.5 ride.

[LT Profits]

No, I completely understand, RLM.
There are weekends when you can find, say 4-5 good RLM's in NCAA football and bet that way and go 4-1. Other weekends, you go 1-4.
I get it, Bania.
BUT the data bases are different, individual, compiled, all LV, all offshore, % of bets, % of dollars.
What was the actual opening line? Not always sure. And when do you decide? Mid afternoon like the guy on this board did? 66%? From where?
I am just saying that if you handicap the game, players, coaches, experience, size, take Duke + 8. I did.
Duke is bigger and more experienced and are deeper at the guard spot and have superior coaching.
Sure Sullinger and Buford are outstanding and OSU could cover.
Reverse line movement and "the public" betting are something to look at, but you have to consider the source. I have seen where one source says 60% is on one team, and another says 65% is on the OTHER, same game.
And RLM? You cannot trust the data all the time, and sometimes you do not know if a huge bet skewed the numbers. Etc.
Too many newbies get into that and get buried. They hear "the public" is on one side and think that they should take the "other" so they are sharp. But the data? Where is it from?
Some times you look at online data and 75% take one side.
Then, uh, a local says 100% took the other side. So?
Not RLM but everyone is betting on Houston in NCAA football... 90+%... practically every game... they keep covering. The public.
DUKE + 8.

The guy that said 66% in this thread was ME. I PAY for the data, so yes I trust it (Sports Insights). They get their data from a collection of mostly square offshore books, which is precisely what you want for a consensus. And the percentage stated are percentage of BETS, not percentage of money, which is not available anywhere to the general public. But percentage of bets is what you want (especially from square books) because then you know that RLM is almost always caused by sharp money. One big mistake RLMers make though is waiting too long until a line has lost its value, The ultimate goal regardless of what method you use is to beat the closing line, and those who mistime RLM oftentimes take the worst line of the day.

[rup]

duke has played and beat some pretty good teams already this year. ohio st. giving up to many pts this game

[hanziman]

took duke +8.5 -123

[Serbone]

The guy that said 66% in this thread was ME. I PAY for the data, so yes I trust it (Sports Insights). They get their data from a collection of mostly square offshore books, which is precisely what you want for a consensus. And the percentage stated are percentage of BETS, not percentage of money, which is not available anywhere to the general public. But percentage of bets is what you want (especially from square books) because then you know that RLM is almost always caused by sharp money. One big mistake RLMers make though is waiting too long until a line has lost its value, The ultimate goal regardless of what method you use is to beat the closing line, and those who mistime RLM oftentimes take the worst line of the day.

I have no quarrel with you, you are credible, and you clarified your source and that it is % of bets made, not dollars bet.
Still, I say that overall people on this board throw around data and make huge assumptions on line movement based on questionable data. And "the public" is thrown around like a rag doll, anytime one team has the most bet on it... these guys think going the other way makes them a "sharp".
And timing, unless you monitor and graph it, when do you judge? Sometimes you see 90% on a team early... is that the smart money? Then it goes down to 60% by game time.
Things like that.
SO I do not bet based upon RLM unless I have a LOT of info including good history of opening line and everything.
A lot more, but that is it for now. We shall see.
I have Duke + 8.

[Hotdiggity11]

Took the under. So far, so good.

[k13]

+14 live if you still like Duke....

[paco]

Greg Oden at the game. Biggest NBA bust of all time

[romoney]

I like to play games like this...(Huge Named teams) at the earliest available line..like the one I got last night at 1030pm for Ohio St-5.5....i knew this would rise and would lose interest..locked them in 22 hrs early!!

[BIGDAY]

Duke blows.

[paco]

Duke looks lost out there

[ebbearsfb1]

Duke has too many white guys

[k13]

Funny how this thread is so quiet now.....

[lonelynoob]

ohio st's best player tonight --- craft --- WHITE .... hats off st, great game

[Fang-Banger]

nice hit man

[Fang-Banger]

i had the over at 147 and got lucky with that garbage bucket by OSU

[TodayIsForgotten]

Ugh. Listened to my friend on this one and went bigger than normal. Like ohst. Didn't take the under 148.5 and it just hits the under. FML.

[k13]

Hi Serbone, line moves don't matter....

Big difference between an ordinary RLM and this game.

Books gave you the winner ahead of time and people still don't want to take it...

[905prodigy]

Still can't believe how many people were on Duke

[HoulihansTX]

Ohio St. by double digits.

Duke is soft. Great fade on the road vs a team w/ a clue.

[TheLock]

Duke is soft. Great fade on the road vs a team w/ a clue.