Originally Posted by
solobass
ok, i am only going to post this one time and here goes. here is my writeup regarding the SP analysis and if the criteria can be expanded to include more games without sacrificing the current 82% success rate.
so basically, we all know what the previous criteria are for these games and if not, please take the time to find out somewhere else in CK threads. please excuse my disdain for capital letters.
the premise (all CK's knowledge and idea) is to take games that are potential blowouts and bet the first half as it has a higher percentage of cashing and avoiding the backdoor late cover by the underdog against an inflated line. now, talking strictly men's ncaa bb my criteria for a game with blowout potential is this. opening line -15.5 or higher, and most importantly an opening ML of -1800. the 1st H must be at least -8.5. if any of these fall below the criteria it falls outside of the model i have been working on and you are on your own there. the biggest indicator and most important factor is the percentage of the 1st H ML to the game ML. divide the 1st half ML by the game ML and this number must be under 32%. if it passes this criteria than you have a play. if it is under 32% that is the threshold for statistical relevancy as related to our current SP knowledge what is the success rate? the answer is two fold. this play (remember only in ncaa bb) has historical data success rate of 70%. the other component is this. we are talking about potential blowout games and in nearly every case if the underdog does cover the 1st half resulting in a loss, the favored team covers the 2nd half at such a high percentage that posting the number here might make heads explode. using this system yesterday you would (i did) have gone 5-2 (.714, slightly lower than the 82% of the pure SP) but 2nd half plays were 100% (florida and louisville) for those not covering in the first half. so on the night out of 9 halves of ncaa bb the success rate would be 78% and the 2nd half plays affords you to make back money plus vig to ensure a positive result all the way around. yes, occasionally you will lose both halves but the percentages are in your favor.
conclusion: there are games out there that can be included that cash at a very high rate of success. my next mission is to combine all of these numbers someway and use them to create a "blowout potential index" that will give us a better look at the probability of success and a tool for ranking games to ensure best selection. the initial play (1st H) has a lower success rate (70% vs the current 82%) of the current secret play formula, but the opportunity to play the 2nd half makes the prescribed method above affords you the luxury of making your money back, or doubling down and making your initial profit. the 2 half strategy success rate in relation to the discussion here has a winning percentage comparable to the pure secret play.
use this information at your own discretion and always remember my quote (see quote)!