[JR007]

FRIDAY'S GAMES IN NEWARK

MARQUETTE VS. NORTH CAROLINA: Same story here, as sharp money came in on a dog right away against an ACC favorite that might have been bet up later by the public. Sharps didn't want to wait because +5 struck them as a vulnerable number. I'm now seeing Marquette +4.5 everywhere. Big move on the total, which has shot up from 147 to 149.5. Sharps generally like Overs with up tempo teams in NBA arenas. This game is being played on the Nets home court, and North Carolina really likes to run.
KENTUCKY VS. OHIO STATE: Some sentiment for the Over here too, as an opener of 139 is up to 140. The team side line hasn't moved yet with Ohio State still at -5.5. As we talked about a lot during football, a frozen line like this often means the sharps like the dog, and are waiting for something better. If they liked the favorite, they would have bet the favorite before the public jumped in on the overall #1 seed in the tourney who looked so great in a TV game that got big ratings. That didn't happen, so sharps don't like the favorite. They'd like to see a +6 before committing to Kentucky.

FRIDAY'S GAMES IN SAN ANTONIO

RICHMOND VS. KANSAS: Not much betting interest in either game in Texas. A reminder here that the San Antonio games are in the Alamo Dome rather than the Spurs normal home court. It's a converted football stadium. Sharps generally like Unders unless great shooters are on the floor. This total has dropped from 138 to 137.5, possibly as a result of that line of thinking. No interest in either team yet at Kansas -10.5. Perhaps this is another frozen line where sharps would hit the dog at +11. Sharps always look for edges all over the regular season board. But, they really didn't spend much time this year with either Richmond or Virginia Commonwealth. They may prefer to pass the Texas games and focus on teams they know better.
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH VS. FLORIDA STATE: The total here has dropped from 133 to 132. Nothing happening on the team side, with Florida State still sitting at -3.5. We at least know sharps don't like the favorite. You get a sense of what those half points on Florida and Wisconsin mean now in the early set. Those were the only favorites that got support! A half point for a favorite seems huge now that we've run through all eight games.

[VicVega91]

Thanks for all of the info !!

[alienware]

i love the write up...i love the marquette ml and vcu with the points tonight..marquette should run through nc. Nc won the nit tourney...Marquette is a true warrior and personally I believe they want it more

[JR007]

I should clarify....this is not mine...but a very good resource....

[CLASSIC ROCK]

Guess I riding along with the sharps like Marquette alot

[0hndycp]

Marquette is down to 4 point dog virtually everywhere now. Think I will play Marquette in the 1st half as well, UNC has failed to come ready to play in almost every game of late!

[TPowell]

sharps didnt spend much time on Richmond or VCU?

[JR007]

sharps didnt spend much time on Richmond or VCU?

yeah, do not know why...I think that they play in the same conference...so maybe no edge there

[JR007]

"The Spiders have won and covered nine straight games, including solid opening-round Tournament wins over Vanderbilt (69-66 as a three-point underdog) and Morehead State (65-48 as a 4½-point favorite). And when you give the Spiders points, they’re money in the bank, going 41-14-2 ATS in their last 57 games as an underdog, including 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight when catching points at neutral sites and 4-0 ATS when grabbing 7 to 12½ points.

Like Richmond, the Jayhawks are rolling, too, winning 10 in a row since their stunning 16-point loss at Kansas State on Feb. 14. But unlike Richmond, they haven’t exactly been a moneymaker lately, as they’ve followed up a 7-1 ATS run by going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight, including 0-5 ATS as a double-digit chalk.

Obviously, if you look at pure talent, this is a major mismatch in favor of Kansas. However, as we saw last year in the Big Dance when Northern Iowa shocked the top-seeded Jayhawks 69-67 in the second round (and as we saw in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals when Oklahoma State came within one final possession of upsetting Kansas), if you can slow the pace down and turn it into a half-court, methodical, low-scoring, defensive slugfest, you’ve got a shot against Kansas.

Well, Richmond has the ability to do that, as the Spiders have held nine straight opponents (and 13 of 14) to 66 points or less, and over this 13-game stretch Richmond is yielding just 61.8 ppg over this stretch. If they continue that trend and keep this one at least in the low 70s, the Spiders will cover easily. If they don’t and this game gets played in the 80s? Well, then all bets are off. But given Richmond’s incredible success as an underdog – not to mention the momentum that comes with winning and cashing in nine straight games, plus the “us-against-the-world/nobody-believes-in-us” mentality – I say the Spiders keep this one close."

[JR007]

Very happy to grab any points available with the underdog Rams as they take on a Florida State team that is also a bit of a surprise to be this deep in the Big Dance.

The Seminoles were out of character a bit in their romp over Notre Dame last time out, as they shot close to 50% from behind the arc, and they also shot over 70% from the charity stripe. With season averages in both areas well below those percentages, look for the Sems to revert back to form which will give the upstart Rams a very real chance at the mild upset.

VCU has been a wrecking ball thus far, posting 3 straight upset wins, as the Colonial rep is now on an 8-1 spread run the last 9 times the linesmakers have posted them in the underdog role!

Florida State can play stingy defense, that is one constant, but VCU has been involved in slow-down-grind-em-out type of games this season, and they are capable of adapting to that style if that is what it is going to take to get them to the regional final on Sunday.

If Seminoles star Chris Singleton was dealing at 100% I might think about backing FSU to get by in this spot, but right now Coach Smith's Rams are believing they can make it all the way to Championship Monday, and the G-Man is not about to go against them this Friday night.

Take VCU plus the points.


VCU (+4) vs. Florida State, at San Antonio, TX grab the points with VCU against Florida State in San Antonio.


OK, VCU has proven that it belongs in the big dance. They’ve taken that hatred all the “experts” threw at them during selection Sunday and they’ve turned it into motivation that has them in the final 16 and with a damn good shot to upset Florida State. That’s why I’ll go ahead and grab the points with the Rams in this strange matchup.

VCU had to win what was basically a “play-in” game against USC, blowing out the Trojans 59-46 as four-point underdogs. Then the Rams went out and destroyed Georgetown and Purdue by identical 18-point margins, dominating the boards in both games and holding both to below 50 percent shooting. Offensively, the Rams have put up 74 and 94 in the last two games and they are making everything. Look for more of that to continue tonight.

Florida State did look good against Notre Dame last weekend, winning 71-57 as 4 ½ -point underdogs. This team has played some lock-down defense ever since that 72-70 loss at North Carolina, limiting the opposition to 62 points or less in each of the last four games.

VCU is on several positive ATS streaks, including 8-2 as an underdog, 4-1 overall, 4-1 in neutral site games, 5-1 against the ACC and 7-0 in big dance matchups. The Seminoles are just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a neutral court favorite.

I love VCU’s attitude and mental makeup right now. They have an “us against the world” attitude that will carry them past Florida State tonight. Grab the points with VCU.