THURSDAY'S GAMES IN NEW ORLEANS
BYU VS. FLORIDA: Sharps really liked the Over here at the opening total of 146.5. I'm seeing all the way up to 149 as I write this. They're expecting a lot of pace, and they see both teams scoring well against the other team's defenses based on the personnel matchups. There was slight support for Florida at -2.5, as it's up to -3. The public may come in on Jimmer Fredette in the afternoon before tipoff. But, sharps who liked Florida didn't want to take the chance that they wouldn't and stepped in early.
BUTLER VS. WISCONSIN: Not much interest in the openers. Wisconsin went from -4.5 to -5, but nothing more. The total opened at 123.5 and went to 124. This Butler team isn't as good as last year, and hasn't yet caught the fancy of sharps with any sort of passion. The totals guys I know want to see what the first game looks like in the Super Dome in terms of three-point accuracy and tightness of the rims. Both of these teams shoot a lot of three's. The game probably won't have much tempo...so shooting accuracy from a distance means everything on the total.
THURSDAY'S GAMES IN ANAHEIM
CONNECTICUT VS. SAN DIEGO STATE: The biggest early move here was on the total. Over 128.5 and 129 was bet, and we're now seeing 130 in most places. San Diego State opened as a 1-point favorite, but was bet down to pick-em. Some painful memories for sharps with these two teams. Most everyone had Temple (+) vs. SDSU in the last round, and got hosed in double overtime. So, they were right in going against SDSU but lost anyway. A lot of sharps really loaded up against UCONN in their opener vs. Bucknell and got blasted. I'm sensing more support for UCONN in my discussions with sharps. But, it's far from unanimous.
ARIZONA VS. DUKE: Sharps were surprised to see an opener of +9 for Arizona, and stepped in right away. I'm now seeing +8.5. Sharps know that the public prefers favorites, and the public likes betting Duke. So, that's actually a meaningful early move. They liked Arizona so much they didn't want to risk the public getting scared off a high number. If the public does come in on game day on Duke -8.5, there will be more sharps ready to take Arizona at +9. Sharps aren't impressed with the ACC powers, who are 1-3 ATS so far in the Dance and barely won last Sunday in Greensboro.