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Team Rankings + Accuscore + Covers + Human Input Picks....
.... or TRACHIP for short
Ok so I signed up for ESPN insider, giving me access to Accuscore and Team rankings data.
I will be using this data + my own adjustments on the line (motivational issues, recent key injuries, revenge factor etc) as well cross referencing with Covers top 10% consensus to hopefully come up with a winning system
So lets roll TRACHIP into action....
19th March:
1) Nuggets/Heat u206
2) Pacers +9
Best o luck everyone
Good luck...not sure where you got the 206 line since that hasn't been available since about 6am. However, I really hope you win since I'm on it too (at 204.5).
Yeah put the bets on this morning mate(time documented in my NBA thread on two plus two), and that's why I only got +9 on the Pacers(currently at +9.5) so works both ways, but really should've posted these earlier here
Hopefully you still hit at 204.5, literally every capper and scoring service out there is calling this under
Both plays above for 1u btw
Like that Pacers play. Good luck.
1-1 so we lost the juice -0.1u stdOriginally Posted by GarbageMan
19th March:
1) Nuggets/Heat u206
2) Pacers +9
Easy win on the under, but lose the Pacers +9 bet.
Need to learn from this Pacers bet, that teams playing an OT game then flying 500 odd miles to a team fighting for a play off place are in a bad spot.
Computer said Pacers win, but the human logic was lacking here
its alrite mate, we live and learn, prefer logic to the wire any day ! keep it coming !!
keep this thread going. i'm interested..
For anyone following this, be aware it's only in the development stage. I'm only betting small units on these plays, and until the system can prove itself I'd exercise caution
Logic like you say is very important, as is data. Hopefully I can combine the 2 to come up with a winning system....
cool, I like it.
remember me!!, all come to worst, can always dial a friend
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-07-15 at 04:55 PM. Reason: image does not exist
Hahaha nice one matecool, I like it.
remember me!!, all come to worst, can always dial a friend
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-07-15 at 04:55 PM. Reason: image does not exist
Remember to filter out the stat plays with intangibles. Good luck.
March20th:
TRACHIP has spewed out a pick (still waiting for Espn/Accuscore to update their site before any more are made)
3) Pistons/Hawks u190 (1x)
BEST OF LUCK ALL.....
Last edited by GarbageMan; 03-20-11 at 10:29 AM.
Ok it's been updated and our final pick of the night is:
4) Nets/Wizards o194.5 (1x)
Wishing you the BOL man, I may tail on Streak Survivor.
Good luck Garbage, like the new strategy
Not the best of starts, hopefully just some early variance.[/font]
3) Pistons/Hawks u190 (1x)
4) Nets/Wizards o194.5 (1x)
Pistons/Hawks had one huge 1/4 scoring 67pts, and it was an uphill struggle from there.
Nets/Wizards close but no cigar.
Like I was saying earlier, it's still the experimental stage, so wouldn't recommend putting any big $ on the picks let's just see if it can find some winners in the long run, and make us some
1-3 std for -2.3u
March 21st
Ok we got a pick:
Boston/New York o197.5 (1x)
TR Predicts o197.5
A Predicts 54.6% the game goes over 197.5
C Top 10% cappers 55.56% on the over, and their Team Experts 66.67% on the over
HIP No injuries to report of late, and both teams should have plenty of motivation as they are fighting for a conference title and a play off place respectively.
Both teams will want to improve on their recent poor form recently by their own standards as well, which should result in a fiercely contested game and that both teams will never give up.
The last meeting was won by Boston 118-116 so there is potential for a big score.
Here's a quick run down of the abbreviations for future reference:
TR = (TeamRankings Their Similar Games model analyzes 10,198 matchups since 2003 and identifies the 75 historical games most similar to this one. These similar historical games feature:
- Home teams with stats similar to New York
- Away teams with stats similar to Boston
- Similar betting lines and other game details)
A = (AccuScore is a statistical forecasting engine that simulates games, one play at a time, under real game conditions and then repeats the process 10,000 times. In doing so, AccuScore provides clients with accurate game forecasting data based on the past performances of the players and teams that participate in a game.)
C = (Covers)
HIP = (Human Input Pick, this is where the logic is mixed in with the data, things I'll be looking for is recent injuries and motivational issues)
Best of luck to all on this
Tracked accuscore half the season in the NBA under 50%
Everything coming out the the ESPN wormhole is fade worthy, from a betting perspective.
GarbageMan,
the Knicks &Bos screwed our pick big time today, man.
This is the blurb from their website:
The 2009-2010 NBA Season ended with a 174-138, 55.8% +1327 run in the NBA Playoffs. Advisor is having a very strong 2010-2011 going over +2000 on all Advisor Picks and 692-605, 53.4% +2650 on spreads and totals when the simulation line and betting lines are at least 2 points different. Other good trends include:
- Point Spreads when sim and vegas line are 2 or more points different are 281-240, 53.9% +1700
- Totals when sim and vegas line are 2 or more points different are 411-365, 53% +950
- Point Spreads when road team favored are 157-135, 53.8% +850
- Point Spreads when home team is favored by 6 to 7.5 are 78-56, 58.2% +1640
- Western Conference Game Point Spreads are 159-128, 55.4% +1820
- Western Conference Game Totals are 165-135, 55% +1650
- Western Conference Game Side Value are 168-146, 53.5% +2856
- Northwest Division Game Totals are 19-8, 70.4% +1020 and Spreads are 17-11, 60.7% +490
- Totals when the line is 195.5 to 200 are 91-70, 56.5% +1400, when line is 180.5 to 185 are 27-20, 57.4% +500
- All Money Line picks are 734-314, 70% +2549
- Three and Four Star Pick Run 85-42, 66.9% +1606
- Side Value when home line is +101 to +199 are 113-103, 52.3% +2238
- Money Line when home line is +101 to +199 are 132-84, 61.1% +160
Highlighted green line are the picks I'm using, not that you'd believe it with the poor performance so far
Can we make money from just fading them then
Big time mate, wasn't even close
March 21st
Ok we got a pick:
4) Boston/New York o197.5 (1x)
1-4 Experiment to date for -3.4U
March23rd
Celtics -6.5 (1x)
Write up in a bit....
adding:
Jazz/Thunder o203 (1x)
I like this idea- not worried about the slow start...nba is tough....i'm starting with it today...good luck
....
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-07-15 at 04:57 PM. Reason: image does not exist
^^^^^^Just to give to give everyone a look under the hood of TRACHIP
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