Originally Posted by
adam3248
I also like the Under here.. If Batum is cleared to play he will aso bolster the Portland 'D'. When you look at opponents Dallas have faced that are similar to Portland in terms of their defense and preference to dictate a slower tempo you have to favour the 'under' 189.5 tonight. I also think that Dallas, being involved in some high scoring games lately has influenced the line and books have slightly over-adjusted tonight's posted total. (Dallas have scored 100+ points in 19 of their last 22 games) But when you look at some of the teams they have faced (uptempo teams) such as the Knicks, Wolves, Pacers, Suns, Kings, Rockets, Nuggs.. you can understand why they have topped 100 points on so many occasions recently.
If you look at some of the games where Dallas have failed to score 100+ points..
96-91 vs Lakers (187 total)
92-93 vs Hornets (185 total)
99-96 vs Cleveland (195 total)
87-86 vs Nets (173 total)
77-82 vs Bulls (159 total)
84-81 vs Blazers (165 total)
87-99 vs Bucks (186 total)
Average total across these games = 178.5
I understand this is a small sample size. But generally when Dallas faces a team that plays with similar defensive intensity to Portland's (I believe the Blazers will play BIG defense tonight on their home court after 2 consecutive losses, look to dictate the pace of the game, (relatively slower) and hold the Mavs to under 100 points) the total fails to supass 190.
Portland have also held 6 of their last 8 opponents to under 100 points. (average of 88 points allowed in those 6 games)
Portland have also averaged just 86 points allowed in their last 10 games including opposition such as Miami, Orlando, Houston, Denver, Lakers..
The Blazers have averaged 94ppg on offense their last 10 games overall.
The previous matchup between these two also resulted in a 84-81 dallas win (165 total points)
I see value with the 'UNDER' 189.5 here and I believe the score will be roughly 95-90 to Dallas..