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$800 on the Heat +2.5
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I have Miami +2.5 right now and everyone in my area is on the Lakers which makes me happy. I booked this a few hours ago after discussing it with my guy(dexter is he tricking me? I dont think) Miami is going to shock everyone in this game. The only way I THINK they will lose is if Bryant/Fisher bury a buzzer beater.
Firstly Wade and James always show up against their big bro bryant. In the last 4 times bryant and wade have meet (la and miami), each game has been decided by 3 or less points. Miami won two of those close games and the lakers won two, 1 of them on a buzzer beater 3 from kobe for the win (last year). In the two times Lebron and Bryant met last year, the Cavs won both. Miami is not an easy place for the Lakers to play. They typically have very close games there.
Everytime Bryant plays against Wade/James, you see great performances. These guys love battling against one another and we'll see great performances from all as usual. Wade is the streakiest player of the 3 but he is in a groove right now after that portland performance. Artest is slow-footed on the defensive end and I think he will be a non factor in this game. Its possible that if no one shows up early, Bryant may be forced into doing too much at times. I see a good game from Bryant but lets see if his teammates get themselves invovled when it matters. The one significant advantage the lakers don't have over the heat's biggest weakness is at the point guard position.
Odom will probably see some significant minutes here to help out on Bosh who I beleive will actually be a factor in this game. As I mentioned in another thread Gasol historically struggles defending PF's that play facing the basket. I think we will find him slow footed, whether its off the dribble or defending a screen. Gasol will get his on the offensive end though. Theres no one on the Heat that can really stop him its just a matter of how many touches he gets. Odom is always the x factor for the lakers. He seems to fade in games like this I will take my chances with Odom and the Lakers bench. Usually Bryant Fisher and Gasol are the ones that step up in these road games. Bynum should play pretty well down low but I don't see him playing more than 25-30 min as he is an easy target for Lebron and Wade to create contact with and get to the line.
Finally I see Miami's bench playing decent. They are getting wide open shots in all these games, its just a matter of knocking them down. In the end, these are still nba players. They're not going to continue missing wide open shots. Mike Miller/Mike Bibby/James Jones only need to knock down 1-2 3s each, with chalmers chipping in his usual 10 points, and Z/Dampier combining for 5-8 points. Thats all the Heat really need. I think the crowd will be rocking in this game and we will see the hit start drilling some 3s and getting their confidence. Lastly, when Wade and Lebron played against LA on Christmas, one thing you noticed about Wade and Lebron was they were not standing around waiting for 1 to make a play. They were moving because they constantly wanted to be part of the action.
I see this being a pretty close game throughout, but I think the Lakers will be trailing for the majority of the game, and will perhaps make a late run. In the end, I expect Miami to execute simply because they are playing the world champs. If the Lakers win this game I think it will really be on a buzzer beater from Bryant. I do not see the Lakers winning by more than 2 if they do.
This is just my opinion. I'm going to think about making a small $200 play on the ML tomorrow. I will post it in the newly created thread if I do.
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Originally Posted by NBA_Brosuf
