[Goat Milk]

Play 10: Bucks/Celtics Over 179 risking $220

Play 10: Loss
Results: Bucks score Franchise Low
Results: 4-6 +$410

[Goat Milk]

Today: Jazz underdog at home, success against Philly over the years

SA in Miami: Miami should win, Spurs missing 3s will expose their slow transition defense against the explosiveness of miami

PHX @ Houston: Why is PHX getting that many points? Nash or no nash...

Denver @ NO: I like the Hornets here a little. They are all healthy and together now, this is the same starting lineup that played very well at the beginning of the year. The Nuggets are missing their best overall player (imo) in arron affalo.

[alamo]

Good luck GM!

[Goat Milk]

Heat -5 Risking $330 to win $300

Heat -1/PHX +13 Risking $110 to win $100

Utah +3 Risking $220 to win $200


fuk that is a lot of money thats it for the night. if the heat don't cover

I think giving the spurs 5 is insane but looks like books have made it clear that the Heat should cover

[DrAwInGdEaD]

im with you ...lets cash

[Goat Milk]

don't let me down dexter

[Goat Milk]

adding:

Heat -1/Magic +9.5 RIsking $110 to win $100

[NBA_Brosuf]

I want you to win so you and your heat can cry less.

Looks like you went all in on heat on 3 papers. Kinda dangerous but if heat hits for ya, home run.

[QUEST001]

don't let me down dexter

me either......

[Goat Milk]

don't let me down dexter

dex

Lets get the sweep. out to the bar for the 2nd game

[lyon804]

Nice nite goat. Your boys looked good tonite. I was glad. One of the easiest bets for me all year.

[Anthonyg7]

nice hit goat

[Goat Milk]

update results later


Play #15 Portland +2 Risking $330 to win $300

Portland has dropped 2 this year to the Mavs, both being decided in the final minute of the game. Brandon Roy was not healthy in that game and played poorly in the 30 minutes he played. The Mavs (in the first game) also had Caron Butler who poured in 23 points, 7 boards, 4 assists, and only 1 turnover in the game. Both teams played well and scored most of their points in the paint, though both struggled from the 3. In the second game, with the Mavs winning by 3, both Dirk and Roy did not play (and Butler was injured at this point). The Mavs shot pretty well from 3 point range but Portland missed some key free throws late in the game I believe and that was pretty much the difference. Camby dominated that game with 20 rebounds. Aldrich has averaged over 30 ppg in the 2 games and has grabbed a lot of boards.

The reason why Dallas and Portland typically have very close games is because it starts at the pg position. Kidd and Andre Miller know each other very well--its not a matter of these guys playing good--its a matter of setting the tone on both ends of the floor. I usually like going against Porltand when they have a faster, more explosive pg that can expose Miller. At the PF spot, Aldrich should be able to get his whenever he wants. Dirk is Dirk but I still like the Portland length on Dirk tonight--Wallace should get some good minutes off the bench and I expect him to give both Dirk and Marion some looks. Marion is not a good offensive player but thrives in transition. Wallace in my opinion is one of the more underrated defenders in the NBA, and pretty versatile, so I think we'll see him guard a few different positions tonight.

Portland is a pretty tough team to score on in the paint when everyone is healthy so I think that is one advantage Dallas does have--is they have the jump shooters to have a good chance to win this game. I see a big mismatch at the 2 spot with Mathews guarded by Bubboiau. Mathews should get some looks tonight and some Miller will probably see that mismatch and run some isos for him or something in the post. Chandler and Camby will both play well defensively and on the boards.

As far as the bench, I like Portland's bench tonight. Marion will probably be starting again tonight in place of the injured Peja. Terry, Bearea (who McMillain will counter with Mills), Haywood, and Brewer off the bench is solid here but Portland is countering that with a guy thats the best player on the team in Brandon Roy and is coming off the bench trying to slowly get his knee 100% again. The guy seems to love playing in any spot light--in the past when he's been healthy he is one of the greatest performers in this era whenever playing on TV. I don't see anyone on the Mavs team that can defend this guy except maybe Deshaun Stevenson. With guys like Batum, Fernandez, Gerald Wallace, Camby and Aldrich, that just seems to be a lot of length tonight, especially in the Rose Garden, where guys like Fernandez who were a non-factor in the first couple games will probably contribute a lot off the bench.

I agree with Rick when he called his team soft. They are a jump shooting team--which may work in their favor at times tonight--but they're not the same team without Butler. The Mavs have had success going into the Rose Garden but that has been in the past when you don't have guys ALL STARS like brandon roy and gerald wallace coming off the bench. Tonight I think Portland will be very aggressive, and will get to the line more than Dallas. I think Chandler and Haywood will commit a lot of touch fouls tonight and just the size advantage now for Portland with everyone healthy makes me pretty confident that if the Blazers don't win straight up tonight the game will at least come down to the wire.

Portland has had a few days rest since their last game. McMillain thought they didn't play well against ATL because of "fatigue." Dallas comes in losing their last game to the Lakers. The Mavs have won nine of 11 on the road as they open a two-game trip that ends Wednesday against Golden State. Dallas is 10-5 in the first half of back-to-backs and 11-4 in the second half.

[ThisGuy]

I agree with you. Dallas is a paper lion and people are sleeping on Por tonight

[obamaismyuncle]

I agree with you. Dallas is a paper lion and people are sleeping on Por tonight

I disagree, I think Portland is the team that looks a lot better on paper than they are, will take some time to get Wallace fitted in and how much will Roy really play? I doubt I play this game but if I do I will be on Dallas small. Good luck to Portland backers. Nice write up, Goat.

[7secondsOrLess]

was leaning por but now i will def make the play

[PAYTON20]

Aldrich is that white goofy motherfukker from Kansas. LaMarcus Aldridge is the star player on the Blazers you're referring to. Good write up and I also think Portland is due for a win. But Dallas is one of those teams that always screws me so I'm still deciding what to do

[nj6]

D Rose

[Goat Milk]

Aldrich is that white goofy motherfukker from Kansas. LaMarcus Aldridge is the star player on the Blazers you're referring to. Good write up and I also think Portland is due for a win. But Dallas is one of those teams that always screws me so I'm still deciding what to do

lol my bad i am not good with spelling

[Pauulzcappin]

Goat you overvalue Brandon Roy too much. He's still a great player but hes only a jump shooter right now. He cant cut to the basket and score like he used to.

[Goat Milk]

Goat you overvalue Brandon Roy too much. He's still a great player but hes only a jump shooter right now. He cant cut to the basket and score like he used to.

I'm expecting a good game from roy, but as you can see from the writeup above thats not the only reason i'm taking the blazers. You might think Roy looks sluggish/slow but thats always how he is. I think this will be a pretty close game. There is going to be a lot of energy in the Rose Garden tonight and Portland's bench will simply outplay Dallas's. Good luck with whatever you decided.

Did you see how fast the books hopped back on the Heat's banwagon?

The Heat are now the favorites (with the lakers) to win the title. Both being offered at the same price.

[demens]

Why is the Rose Garden such a scary place? Blazers power ranking is only 13th for a home team. Mav are #1 on the road. Mav road record is actually better then Portland home record but you're scared of the Blazers because they are at home? Celtics beat them there, Heat beat, Lakers beat them. Why can't the Mavs? Portland does have a win over the Spurs so 1 out of 4 vs elite teams. Mavs battle for home court vs the Lakers is just as serious as the Blazers play-off run, doubt they take this game lightly.

[paco]

I will be on Port also.

Very good write up also

[Joe Sharp]

Good Luck Goat!

[Pauulzcappin]

I will most definetely be on Dallas. Marion can guard Roy, Batum or whoever he is assigned to with the exception of Aldridge.

[Goat Milk]

Why is the Rose Garden such a scary place? Blazers power ranking is only 13th for a home team. Mav are #1 on the road. Mav road record is actually better then Portland home record but you're scared of the Blazers because they are at home? Celtics beat them there, Heat beat, Lakers beat them. Why can't the Mavs? Portland does have a win over the Spurs so 1 out of 4 vs elite teams. Mavs battle for home court vs the Lakers is just as serious as the Blazers play-off run, doubt they take this game lightly.

No one is taking this game lightly. The Lakers didn't beat Portland. Bryant beat them with 3 miraculous shots in the last 40 seconds of the game. Portland was dominate the whole game until Bryant took over the last 2 minutes and the Lakers snuck out a lucky ass win in overtime, which was my biggest play of the season on LA

[Goat Milk]

Marion can't guard Roy. He will probably get some looks on him this game which is good for me Stevenson is the best 1 on 1 perimeter defender on the mavs but its not for sure he will play. good luck pauuly it will be a good game i believe and you will see other guys on portland stepping up like Rudy Fernandez.

[demens]

No one is taking this game lightly. The Lakers didn't beat Portland. Bryant beat them with 3 miraculous shots in the last 40 seconds of the game. Portland was dominate the whole game until Bryant took over the last 2 minutes and the Lakers snuck out a lucky ass win in overtime, which was my biggest play of the season on LA

They dominated Heat too and lost. The result matters more then how they play. They are a good home team, they do have talent but its the Mavs. What category do the Blazers have an edge in this game? People have been hoping on and off bangwagons the last 2 weeks, not me. Mavs have not missed Butler at all, and Roy is nowhere near the player he once was. Mavs are elite and have proven it on the road time after time this year. They will prove again tonight.

Btw, i read that Blazers are gonna start starting Wallace over Camby, not sure if it starts this game though. Also, if Bodeouis has issues with Mathews Mavs have plenty of defenders on the bench to set in, its not like the kid is essential to the Mavs, he is just filling in that token starter role. Kidd has guarded SGs all year anyway.

[JR007]

you are lifting these articles from somewhere...no one has the detailed memory for this in-depth analysis......i will find the origin of these and get back to you

[Pauulzcappin]

you are lifting these articles from somewhere...no one has the detailed memory for this in-depth analysis......i will find the origin of these and get back to you

come on now jr.

Also who the fukk is Bodeouis, demens?

[Goat Milk]

you are lifting these articles from somewhere...no one has the detailed memory for this in-depth analysis......i will find the origin of these and get back to you

i thought this stuff was worthless



this is great stuff!

[Goat Milk]

I have Miami +2.5 right now and everyone in my area is on the Lakers which makes me happy. I booked this a few hours ago after discussing it with my guy (dexter is he tricking me? I dont think) Miami is going to shock everyone in this game. The only way I THINK they will lose is if Bryant/Fisher bury a buzzer beater.

Firstly Wade and James always show up against their big bro bryant. In the last 4 times bryant and wade have meet (la and miami), each game has been decided by 3 or less points. Miami won two of those close games and the lakers won two, 1 of them on a buzzer beater 3 from kobe for the win (last year). In the two times Lebron and Bryant met last year, the Cavs won both. Miami is not an easy place for the Lakers to play. They typically have very close games there.

Everytime Bryant plays against Wade/James, you see great performances. These guys love battling against one another and we'll see great performances from all as usual. Wade is the streakiest player of the 3 but he is in a groove right now after that portland performance. Artest is slow-footed on the defensive end and I think he will be a non factor in this game. Its possible that if no one shows up early, Bryant may be forced into doing too much at times. I see a good game from Bryant but lets see if his teammates get themselves invovled when it matters. The one significant advantage the lakers don't have over the heat's biggest weakness is at the point guard position.

Odom will probably see some significant minutes here to help out on Bosh who I beleive will actually be a factor in this game. As I mentioned in another thread Gasol historically struggles defending PF's that play facing the basket. I think we will find him slow footed, whether its off the dribble or defending a screen. Gasol will get his on the offensive end though. Theres no one on the Heat that can really stop him its just a matter of how many touches he gets. Odom is always the x factor for the lakers. He seems to fade in games like this I will take my chances with Odom and the Lakers bench. Usually Bryant Fisher and Gasol are the ones that step up in these road games. Bynum should play pretty well down low but I don't see him playing more than 25-30 min as he is an easy target for Lebron and Wade to create contact with and get to the line.

Finally I see Miami's bench playing decent. They are getting wide open shots in all these games, its just a matter of knocking them down. In the end, these are still nba players. They're not going to continue missing wide open shots. Mike Miller/Mike Bibby/James Jones only need to knock down 1-2 3s each, with chalmers chipping in his usual 10 points, and Z/Dampier combining for 5-8 points. Thats all the Heat really need. I think the crowd will be rocking in this game and we will see the hit start drilling some 3s and getting their confidence. Lastly, when Wade and Lebron played against LA on Christmas, one thing you noticed about Wade and Lebron was they were not standing around waiting for 1 to make a play. They were moving because they constantly wanted to be part of the action.

I see this being a pretty close game throughout, but I think the Lakers will be trailing for the majority of the game, and will perhaps make a late run. In the end, I expect Miami to execute simply because they are playing the world champs. If the Lakers win this game I think it will really be on a buzzer beater from Bryant. I do not see the Lakers winning by more than 2 if they do.

This is just my opinion.

JR make sure you check to see where this one came from as well

[demens]

come on now jr.

Also who the fukk is Bodeouis, demens?

I dont know how to spell that French fuckers name.

[Goat Milk]

Demons,

Quote from JR "Me and LB have a system. Goat's fantasy league writeups are worthless"

Now its "no one has the memory for these in-depth writeups

[JR007]

paul...you really believe he is writing these......he's taking this info..or a combination..from various sources and substituting it for his own

At least i admit...i use other sources......he ain't that smart