[kobstopa]

Welcome to my picks and analysis for tomorrow, in this thread I'll add extra miscellaneous sections; Euroleague Basketball and a few regular NHL picks, updating bit by bit as it goes.

On with the NBA projection of only 2 regular games:

Orlando at Miami 95 103
Denver at Utah 106 100

Let's break it down and see what we have in store,

Orlando at Miami 95 103
As I recall the last time these two teams had played, it was Miami at Orlando on 3 Feb 2011. James put a clinic 51 points, all at will & i was watching that game and couldn't believe what i was seeing with that shooting performance. Orlando had just brought in 3 new traded players. They had a reasonable performance at home, double digit scoring load spread amongst 6 or 7 players, they would had crushed a lot of winning records teams at that time, on that day.

Finally result was
Heat 104 (35-14, 17-9 away) James 51 +Wade 14 + Bosh 13 = 78, the bench = 26 points
Magic 100 (31-19, 18-7 home)

Having said that, don't expect another 51 points performance from Labron here. It will be a balance scoring load along the line of James 28 + Wade 36 + Bosh 8 + Anthony 1 (15 rebounds) + Dampier 8 + Bibby 10= 89 points
the rest = bench = Jones 8 + house At el. = 23

Orlando is taking average 27 3's per game or less coming to this game, depend on how effective is the low post and pick 'n' roll allow Miami defense spread out & give them a good open look. In the last game against NYK, when Quentin Richardson was used in place of Hedo's who was ejected from the game. They pressured the Knicks forced turn over, turned into explosive fast break's & 3's shooting in the 2nd half helped them back in the game, but on the road at Miami could be a difficult thing to do.

What trouble me with Orlando's last game was the fact that, had they not put Quentin Richardson in time because Hedo was out, they might as well had not won that game, it was just a big behind to dig themselves in the 2nd half. Also, Billups was playing in pain, thus didn't start today against the Hornets.

Key number:

Orlando's Overall Scoring vs Miami's Overall Defense 100.3 rank 11 94.4 rank 6

Orlando's Away Scoring vs Miami's Home Defense 98.4 rank 13 93.9 rank 7

Orlando's Road Rebounds vs Miami's Home Rebounds Allowed 41.2 rank 13 39.8 rank 8

Miami's Overall Scoring vs Orlando's Overall Defense 102.0 rank 9 94.3 rank 5

Miami's Home Scoring vs Orlando's Road Defense 103.8 rank 9 97.3 rank 9 _______even

Miami's Home Rebounds vs Orlando's Road Rebounds Allowed 43.0 rank 11 40.7 rank 11

Given the hype, the spotlight and attentions that coming into this game could turn it into another statement type of spectacles = step up on defensive stops, shooting disruptions, control the glass and a physical match by both team. Will be plenty of foul shots, half court setups. Very likely to be an under scoring type of game.

I would pick - Heats -5.5/under 198.5 Result: Heats 96 Magics 99 the under pick was correct

Best play is also to wait for a second half to see what's going on, as you may went to see how it all play out first and which direction its heading. After all you want to make an inform decision.


Denver at Utah 106 100
This is a lot easier to pick than the last game, Den got a lot of weapons & assuming a different identity where they will play hard and just be comfortable at home or on the road. They can get it done defensively as well, the with front-line = Nene + Kmart + Birdman which can physically match up well against Jefferson + Milsaps. Denver's back court, Lawson + Arron Afflalo +Felton these guy got quick hands and sure can run like a Cadillac. The entire team is fit description of a poor man's Dream Team II, even come with its original head coach too (or he could be in Dream Team III take your picks).

The Jazz still can play at home, even without Williams now, but just not as good as it once was. Work in progress in rostering to come still.

Play Denver +3.5/Under 210.5 Result: Denver 102 Jazz 101 a BIG Win


feel free to inputs and comment on it

[TechnicallyFoul]

Utah's gonna get manhandled! Take the M/L. This is a no-brainer. Bet the bank roll.

[kobstopa]

Utah's gonna get manhandled! Take the M/L. This is a no-brainer. Bet the bank roll.

good luck, I hope you right

[kobstopa]

For those who interested in out of business hours in basketball actions, here it is
but for me, I am doing it because I am a basketball junkie who love the game in any form. period.

Euroleague picks

Home Vs Away
Efes Pilsen v Partizan Igokea 77 73 x
Olympiacos v Zalgiris 78 64
Real Madrid v Siena 77 69 x
Valencia v Fenerbahce 73 78 x
FC Barcelona v Union Olimpija 84 64
Lietuvos Rytas v Caja Laboral 77 69 x
Roma v Maccabi Electra 74 88 x
Unicaja v Panathinaikos 66 79

_____________________ 5/5 result

Play

Caja Laboral (8-7) at Lietuvos Rytas (7-8)

play Lietuvos Rytas -1.5. x

A must win for both teams, in Europe, play in your home court is a big deal. Plus in this case Caja is the worse team on the road.
more info link
http://www.euroleague.net/main/resul...w?gamecode=162

http://www.euroleague.net/competitio...E&gamecode=162
http://www.euroleague.net/competitio...S&gamecode=162


Maccabi Electra (13-3) at Roma (6-9)
Maccabi Electra is a Dallas Mavericks equivalent, while Roma is similar to Toronto Raptors. For the entire season Maccabi is loss twice to the same team: FC Barcelona.

As you would have guess, FC Barcelona is Ricky Rubio's team. That's where he had been hiding from the Timberwolves all this time. He's pretty good for a guy who don't shot the ball that well but know how to win a lot of games for his ball club, that's why the wolves gambled away a first round pick on him for nothing. But he is not the first Rookie who doesn't to play for the twin city either,I too, sure doesn't want to sign with them.

Roma is playing its last game for the season & will not progress further due to its losing records, while Maccabi will go on to the final 4.

http://www.euroleague.net/main/resul...w?gamecode=164

play McbiElct -5.5

[kobstopa]

NHL Pick

ST. LOUIS BLUES at WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Road 10-15-5 vs Home 18-8-7

TRENDS
ST. LOUIS
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games ,when playing on the road against Washington

WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Washington's last 19 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games at home

St. Louis has dropped five of last six, while the capitals is winning four of five after going 3-5-2.

Prediction: Blues 1 Capitals 3
play Capitals /under 5.5 Result: Capitals 3 Blue 2 - Win


MONTREAL CANADIENS at FLORIDA PANTHERS
34-23-7 26-30-7

MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games on the road
Montreal is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Florida
Montreal is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Florida

FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Florida is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Florida is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Montreal
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Montreal

Florida has lost two straight and 11 of 15 and has scored six goals in its last five contests.

Prediction: Mon 3 Florida 1
play Mon /under 5.5 Result: Mon 4 Florida 0 Win

PHOENIX COYOTES at LOS ANGELES KINGS
33-22-10 35-24-4

PHOENIX
Phoenix is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
Phoenix is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
LOS ANGELES
Los Angeles is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Los Angeles is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Phoenix


Prediction: PHX 2 Kings 4 Result: Phx 0 Kings 1

the Kings won but did go over.

[sexydude911]

denver M/L

[kobstopa]

denver M/L

the bet for this game is suspended, i wonder why?

[kobstopa]

add NCAABB game

play St. John's -2

[ParlayJunkie]

I really think Heat and Nugs both cover as well. Gl today. I just hope I don't get burned by another Jazz home game in my life.

[Vreston]

BOL on your plays today.

In Euroleague it seems like Macabbi didn't show up tonight. Neither did Real. Those were games without incentive so it's hard to say how the teams will decide to play. Only three games in Euroleague tonight had meaning. Valencia-Fener, Lietuvos-Caja Laboral and Malaga-Panathinaikos.

Anyway, BOL to you. Nice job on your write ups.

[kobstopa]

BOL on your plays today.

In Euroleague it seems like Macabbi didn't show up tonight. Neither did Real. Those were games without incentive so it's hard to say how the teams will decide to play. Only three games in Euroleague tonight had meaning. Valencia-Fener, Lietuvos-Caja Laboral and Malaga-Panathinaikos.

Anyway, BOL to you. Nice job on your write ups.

thx man, you're the King still.

[kobstopa]

What have we learn today,

Despite only 2 games, but it was a hard one to put together to predict which way is correct without bias and distraction by side liners. Key numbers & stat is only telling half the story, one must have a good instinctive feel by watch lot of game itself, the latest team reports etc to keep inform.
But it's a lot of fun.

A spotlight game such as the Heats-Orlando tends to be physical and low scoring, more example was the Heats@NYK, Heats@Boston etc. I pick the heats here as they draw a lot of attentions.
There is no such thing as a sure thing.
Focusing on playing with over/under is probably best in these situation.


The NHL is still a solid results. I hope people take good advantage of these information.

On to tomorrow, with 11 NBA & 5 NHL games to figure out. the post will be out shortly.