[kobstopa]

I got 6/8 with head to head win projection yesterday:

1. Golden State at Indiana 104 113
2. New York at Orlando 94 108
3. Dallas at Philadelphia 104 95
4. New Orleans at Toronto 97 106
5. Detroit at Milwaukee 91 96
6. LA Lakers at Minnesota 103 96
7. San Antonio at Memphis 101 94 X
8. Houston at Portland 94 102 X

A disappointed result for Portland which had been consistent in the past for its toughness at home & grind out opponents scoring average to 89 points or less. By inserting 2 starters in Camby and Wallace could have something to do with it or could be a continue bad chemistry between Andre Miller & B. Roy. It had been known that Portland had tried to move Miller earlier on to keep Roy happy. Also, both LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews had performed somewhat just average output efforts. Fernandez got 0 mins in the last game.
In any-case, their 2 losses at home had put 2 eggs in my face for endorsed favorably these 2 games.

on to tomorrow, we have 10 games:

1. Chicago at Atlanta 93 87
2. San Antonio at Cleveland 110 100
3. Golden State at Washington 105 100
4. Phoenix at Boston 101 98
5. Minnesota at Detroit 99 103
6. New Orleans at New York 93 105
7. Indiana at Oklahoma City 98 107
8. Charlotte at Denver 94 110
9. Portland at Sacramento 96 102
10. Houston at LA Clippers 99 92

_________________________________

Chicago at Atlanta 93 87
Without Josh Smith in the middle, the Bulls physical front-line will have a field day even though 110% efforts from Zaza Gabor, Al Horford and Marvin Williams won't do it.
These 2 teams will have almost identical defensive style of play, will play a lot half court setup, draw fouls in the lane. Expect a few bounds off shots & low %.

Chicago:
CHI are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Under is 15-6 in CHI last 21 vs. NBA Southeast.

Atlanta:
Under is 7-1 in ATL last 8 overall.
Under is 11-3 in ATL last 14 vs. NBA Central.
ATL are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Chicago should win by 8 /under 187

Result: Bulls 80 ATL 83 - The Bulls couldn't protect 17 points lead in the 1st. they lost the un lose able. The under total is correct.

San Antonio at Cleveland 110 100
Let's take it on Cleveland & they won't put up much of resistance, even they wanted too. Cleveland will unveil BD and Samardo Samuels a Bob Marley of Basketball.

Golden State at Washington 108 102
The Warriors should end a 4 games losing streak here as David Lee will crash the board & impose some D.
Will have a few miss shots by either teams.

Key numbers:
Golden State:
Under is 7-2 in GS last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.
GS are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 10-3 in GS last 13 overall.

Washington:
WAS are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Wed. games.
WAS are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Under is 38-17 in WAS last 55 home games.

play - G State +1.5/Under 214.5
Result: GSW 106 Was 102 - only 2 points off the Estimate

Phoenix at Boston 101 98
Orlando's ex-convicts and Steve Nash will give Boston a special treat. The Suns have learned from a 2 near missed games at NJersey, & the Pacers will look to close the game out properly. Boston too will have a plan on their own - revenge & just play hard with whom ever they come, even the Greenbay Packers.

Key numbers:
Phoenix:
PHO are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 41-19 in PHO last 60 Wed. games.

Boston:
BOS are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Wed. games.
Under is 18-7-1 in BOS last 26 vs. Pacific.

Head to Head:
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Boston.
PHO are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston.

last 3 games samples for Phx
Date vs Score Line ATS
2/28/11 @NJ 104-103 (W) (OT)
2/27/11 @IND 110-108 (W) (OT)
2/25/11 @TOR 110-92 (W)

Boston
2/28/11 @UTA 107-102 (W)
2/26/11 @LAC 99-92 (W)
2/24/11 @DEN 75-89 (L)
2/22/11 @GS 115-93 (W)
2/16/11 NJ 94-80 (W)
2/13/11 MIA 85-82 (W)
2/10/11 LAL 86-92 (L)

Phx +7.5 (a lower risk) Knowing that I can't win but yet picked it this way anyway !!!

higher risk/higher return then take Phx +7.5 /Over 197.5

Charlotte at Denver 94 110
A new improved Denver, plus a motivated K mart & bird man is back now. They got game, both inside and out. Charlotte will have S Jackson and a lot of miss shoots.

play Denver -6.5

NHL Play

Tampa (37-18-7) @ NJ (27-31-4)
NJ's last 10 games are all under (9-1) both team is in the same conference with conference record (30-12-5) & (20-22-3). Tampa is a clearly a better team rank 2nd in the east & both teams look to play a strong all around defensive game.
play total under 5.5
Result: Tampa 1 Devils 2 - Correct

(or higher risk Tampa/under 5.5)

Minnesota 33-24-6 (17-11-3 V)@NY Islanders 23-32-9 (12-15-4 H)
Minn /under 5.5
Result: Minn 2 NYI 3 - only 1/2 right with the under

Penguins@Maple Leafs - /over 5.5

Red Wings at LA Ducks - Red /over 5.5

[pittmatt80]

Thanks for the picks, we'll see how they go. Looking for someone to follow going to keep an eye on you for awhile. Good Luck

[kobstopa]

Thanks for the picks, we'll see how they go. Looking for someone to follow going to keep an eye on you for awhile. Good Luck

thx, you'll find that I do a lot more picks than others per day. been doing separate thread in the last few days, check it out to give u some idea, I like one per day to make it easy for people to read.

I didn't publish a whole data analysis today, been tired, so I just go straight to the pick.

[kobstopa]

have just polished with extra stat details.

Good parlay plays:

try bundle one:

Chicago -2.5
G State +1.5/Under 214.5
Minn /under 5.5

est value = 1.87 x 3.25 x 3 = 18.23
invest $10 return $182.3 loss

try bundle two:

Red Wings /over 5.5
Tampa @ NJ - play total under 5.5
Phx +7.5
Denver -6.5

est value = 2.9 x 1.6 x 1.87 x 1.87 = 16.23
return $162.3 per $10

[bleek88]

I like your picks for today, quiet impressed.

[bleek88]

NO over NYK
BOS over PHX

[kobstopa]

New Orleans at New York 93 105

Result: Orleans 88 New York 107

NYK with their new roster & excellent effort on the road recently, I 'll be very surprise to see them beaten at home here. MSG will be rocked in a post Miami victory, and will be a tough thing for hornets to play, which is a team had good runs earlier on with but lately in a slump, only 3-7 in last 10. They loss the last one to a lowly Toronto.

a set back for NYK as Billups won't be playing, I think Tony Douglas will start or rotate with Anthony Carter at 1 guard.

play New York -3.5 -

[kamzy89]

My bookie is only offering +5 for the tampa bay game!! should i still hit the under?

[NickS8753]

thanks man. lookin good.

[kobstopa]

My bookie is only offering +5 for the tampa bay game!! should i still hit the under?

tricky, flip a coin

20% could go Tam 2 NJ 1 SO
20% Tam 3 NJ 2 SO
30% Tam x NJ x = under
30% Tam x NJ x = over

but under 5 > over rough out and lean to 60/40..... ..... ...............go under 5 - Outcome Correct

[kobstopa]

yuk, a sub-par results at best today,

1. Chicago at Atlanta 93 87 x
2. San Antonio at Cleveland 110 100
3. Golden State at Washington 105 100
4. Phoenix at Boston 101 98 x
5. Minnesota at Detroit 99 103 x
6. New Orleans at New York 93 105
7. Indiana at Oklahoma City 98 107
8. Charlotte at Denver 94 110
9. Portland at Sacramento 96 102 x
10. Houston at LA Clippers 99 92 x

5/5 right

Chicago should win by 8 /under 187

Result: Bulls 80 ATL 83 - The Bulls couldn't protect 17 points lead in the 1st. they lost the un lose able. The under total is correct.


play - G State +1.5/Under 214.5
Result: GSW 106 Was 102 - only 2 points off the Estimate


Phx +7.5 (a lower risk) Knowing that I can't win but yet picked it this way anyway !!!

higher risk/higher return then take Phx +7.5 /Over 197.5



Charlotte at Denver 94 110
A new improved Denver, plus a motivated K mart & bird man is back now. They got game, both inside and out. Charlotte will have S Jackson and a lot of miss shoots.

play Denver -6.5

play New York -3.5 -

the hockey is horrendous.

We'll see how we go tomorrow, shortly will post with Euroleague basketball picks & we'll only have 2 NBA games. So stay tune & look out for my new thread.
gl