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Quad-Limit Chase Hot ATS Fade System
Starting tonight, I'll be actually betting on, and testing a new system
which is easy to understand and implement. I've designed it over the last
3-4 days. The model is a limited martingale which fades hot ATS streaks.
Starting with the smallest unit size is often wise with any chase system,
even if limited. Of course, new members of the set will be introduced frequently, and leave frequently. It is because the population size is not fixed that unit size must be kept in check along with the number of chases. So, we're going to make 1 unit = $2.00. For tracking purposes, I will not take account for juice on every win. Juice can be inferred later by taking 10% return off the number of winning wagers, for sticklers. The bankroll begins at $100.
The target subset is NBA teams which have covered the spread 4 of their
last 5 games. I've noticed that the chances of said teams
continuing to cover 8 of 9 consecutive games is negligible. Still, it is
for bankroll security purposes that I choose to limit the chase doubling
effect to 4 times (the chase vs. that team hits a max 8x (in 4 wagers)
then reverts back to 1x).
Since ATS records are derived from the closing-line, wagers must be placed
on as close to a settled line as possible. Whether each bet needs to be made
right before tip is debateable, because although optimal, it may not be
practical. I would deem getting bets in no earlier than 6:45 EST as acceptable,
if waiting until just before game time is impractical. For posting purposes,
I will post the plays of the day here around that time, although anyone who
follows/decides to play this system will derive the plays from an info sheet
like this (which I am using)
http://stats.sportsbettingstats.com/...otandnot5.aspx
- we wager on the opponent of each member of the subset for 1 unit. If the bet wins, obviously the team we're fading is removed from the target set. If the
bet loses, that team we are fading stays in the set and its next opponent is
wagered on for 2 units. This continues for only 4 total wagers in a worst-case
scenario (quad-limit martingale), capping the largest risk at 8 units (2, 4, 8, 16). If the 4th wager loses, the team still stays in the fade set, but the
wager size starts over again at 1 unit.
- The unit size will stay the same until the bankroll doubles to $200, at which juncture the unit size will be increased by 100% to $4.00.
For every 100% increase in bankroll, unit size will also double.
- If beginning play of the system after its onset, new play starts with 1 unit
per opponent upon attaining 4 of last 5 in above link.
There are a number of variants I am also considering, but I will start with
this model because I think it may be the best. The other possible variants would be subsets composed of the best ATS overall NBA teams, or bubble-teams, or fading the worst ATS, or going long with teams on ATS losing streaks.
If this system works, there will be no need to switch.
initial plays will be posted between the hour of 6-7 pm.
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Originally Posted by lordlord2323
(clips ML for me)
