[jcubs55]

Hey guys,

I've only posted 3 NBA plays (2-1) in my season-long NBA thread so far this year but I think I've found a great play for Tuesday that is worth posting. I watch every single Bulls game as the die-hard fan that I am, and while I may be biased as a fan, I'm not biased as a bettor. I have only bet the Bulls a handful of times this year. Tomorrow, the Bulls play host to the Charlotte Bobcats who just steamrolled the Lakers tonight in Charlotte for their biggest win of the season (and also the Lakers biggest loss). You can be sure that this win took a lot out of the Bobcats who have played very well against contenders lately. A key contributor to the team's recent success is Stephen Jackson, who had averaged 26.7 points in the three games previous to Monday's game against the Lakers, in which he scored only 9 points. Don't expect him to rebound Tuesday against a Bulls team which has held him to 35.5% shooting this season. Now Jackson and the Bobcats have to hit the road and play the very next day (the Bobcats are 4-12 in the second of back-to-back games) in Chicago against a team who can't wait to get on the court. The Bulls are 0-2 so far this year against Charlotte, with one game played at home for each team. The Bobcats took the first game 96-91 in Charlotte in what was an "off" game for Derrick Rose, who shot just 5-17 for 17 points. The Bobcats also squeaked out an 83-82 win in the United Center after Derrick Rose missed an attempted buzzer beater. Rose scored 33 in the second game, but one thing to note is that Carlos Boozer, who played well in the first game (28 PTS, 13 REB), had to sit out with an ankle injury. The top performer for Charlotte in both these games was D.J. Augustin, who is now playing with a sprained wrist and has been shooting just 31% while averaging 9.1 PPG over his last eight games. Discounting Rose's off game and Boozer's absence, the public is seeing a Charlotte team that is 2-0 against Chicago being "gifted" about 9 points, and they are jumping all over it at about a 70% rate. Big mistake. This is a much better spot for the Bulls than the last time they played at the UC after flying back from a road game the night before with little time to prepare. The Bulls are a conference best 23-4 at home, while the Bobcats are only 10-17 on the road this year. This is a double revenge game for the Bulls, and you can be sure that they've spent the last two off days resting, planning, and gearing up for payback while the Bobcats had to worry about and battle a very good Lakers team and will be playing their fourth game in five nights. Simply put, this is a horrendous letdown spot for the Bocats, and a terrific two-day rest/home/double-revenge game for the Bulls who should have BOTH Rose and Boozer playing to their capabilities in this one and be able to generate enough offense to distance themselves from the Bobcats who average under 94 PPG and have to face an outstanding Bulls defense that allows just over 92 PPG. Chicago takes this one 98-84.

Chicago Bulls -9 -110 risking 3.3 Units to win 3.0 Units

As a sidenote, this line opened at -9.5 and dropped to -9 with the public backing the dog at a pretty high rate early. If this doesn't even out, you may want to wait to see if you can lay even less points with the Bulls, but IMO the spread shouldn't come into play. Good luck everyone!

[face]

good info, bobcats have a special thing with the lakers going, having won 6 out of 8 last meetings. I don't think bobcats are that great, they just matchup well against lakers. You're probably right, but 9 is so many, i'll take your advice and tease bulls.

[TeamTT]

Nice info but 9 points is quite abit...

[BernardMadoff]

Nice info but 9 points is quite abit...

Exactly. And b2b don't affect teams like people think they do. Besides the Lakers game was over in the 3rd quarter.

[hawley]

Nice write up

Agree that its a lot of points but I dont imagine the line is that far off where it should be

GL

[jcubs55]

I understand that you guys think 9 points is a lot... heck, even I almost never take steep favorites, but I told my friend on Sunday that this is exactly what would happen. I told him the line would come out at -9 (technically it came out at 9.5 but dropped pretty quick), and that everyone would think that is astronomical for a team to be favored by over a team they've already lost to twice. Well, think about it... why are they such steep favorites if the lines makers know they could set it at somewhere around -6? Because they know this is a great spot for the Bulls as I have already mentioned, and the public will ride the dog and fall. This game has a double-digit blowout for the Bulls written all over it. Good luck guys!

[secret007]

Your explanation makes sense but laying 9 points? Not betting any side on this game might be the best option. GL

[twelvejewelz]

lots of D ill take the under no side for me either.good luck

[NYSportsGuy210]

After reading this I am leaning on playing the UNDER here. Nine points is a lot for me. An informative write up nonetheless.

[riskyProps]

The Bulls shouldn't lose this game especially with Charlotte's back to back record. But the Bulls were one of the teams they did beat on a back to back. 9 points seem really high to give up to a team that plays them hard.

[MrShrink]

already took the 9, and i can't say i totally regret it (yet!), but what a great write-up. appreciate it, bro!

[GTS925]

Great write-up! BOL!

[Vreston]

Thanks for the great write up.

You make a lot of sense. Charlotte beat the champs and that puts them in the perfect let down position. I agree with you that they gave it all they had.

BOL on your pick. -9 is not a number that can't be covered by this year's Bulls team.

[oiler]

they should have the number early and coast the rest of the way

[demens]

Hey guys,

I've only posted 3 NBA plays (2-1) in my season-long NBA thread so far this year but I think I've found a great play for Tuesday that is worth posting. I watch every single Bulls game as the die-hard fan that I am, and while I may be biased as a fan, I'm not biased as a bettor. I have only bet the Bulls a handful of times this year. Tomorrow, the Bulls play host to the Charlotte Bobcats who just steamrolled the Lakers tonight in Charlotte for their biggest win of the season (and also the Lakers biggest loss). You can be sure that this win took a lot out of the Bobcats who have played very well against contenders lately. A key contributor to the team's recent success is Stephen Jackson, who had averaged 26.7 points in the three games previous to Monday's game against the Lakers, in which he scored only 9 points. Don't expect him to rebound Tuesday against a Bulls team which has held him to 35.5% shooting this season. Now Jackson and the Bobcats have to hit the road and play the very next day (the Bobcats are 4-12 in the second of back-to-back games) in Chicago against a team who can't wait to get on the court. The Bulls are 0-2 so far this year against Charlotte, with one game played at home for each team. The Bobcats took the first game 96-91 in Charlotte in what was an "off" game for Derrick Rose, who shot just 5-17 for 17 points. The Bobcats also squeaked out an 83-82 win in the United Center after Derrick Rose missed an attempted buzzer beater. Rose scored 33 in the second game, but one thing to note is that Carlos Boozer, who played well in the first game (28 PTS, 13 REB), had to sit out with an ankle injury. The top performer for Charlotte in both these games was D.J. Augustin, who is now playing with a sprained wrist and has been shooting just 31% while averaging 9.1 PPG over his last eight games. Discounting Rose's off game and Boozer's absence, the public is seeing a Charlotte team that is 2-0 against Chicago being "gifted" about 9 points, and they are jumping all over it at about a 70% rate. Big mistake. This is a much better spot for the Bulls than the last time they played at the UC after flying back from a road game the night before with little time to prepare. The Bulls are a conference best 23-4 at home, while the Bobcats are only 10-17 on the road this year. This is a double revenge game for the Bulls, and you can be sure that they've spent the last two off days resting, planning, and gearing up for payback while the Bobcats had to worry about and battle a very good Lakers team and will be playing their fourth game in five nights. Simply put, this is a horrendous letdown spot for the Bocats, and a terrific two-day rest/home/double-revenge game for the Bulls who should have BOTH Rose and Boozer playing to their capabilities in this one and be able to generate enough offense to distance themselves from the Bobcats who average under 94 PPG and have to face an outstanding Bulls defense that allows just over 92 PPG. Chicago takes this one 98-84.

Chicago Bulls -9 -110 risking 3.3 Units to win 3.0 Units

As a sidenote, this line opened at -9.5 and dropped to -9 with the public backing the dog at a pretty high rate early. If this doesn't even out, you may want to wait to see if you can lay even less points with the Bulls, but IMO the spread shouldn't come into play. Good luck everyone!

I think the horrendous let down spot is on the Bulls end here. 1st game back after a long trip is tough and they have the Spurs to look forward too in the next one. I dont think the Bulls are too concerned with the Bobcats or double revenge. If anything, Bobcats winning twice shows that they match-up well with the Bulls which should give them an edge.

I really liked the Bobcats before they beat LA. Now that win, combined with them being below average b2b team makes me less confident. But the look ahead angles have been on fire recently, way more so then let downs after big wins, b2bs or revenge games so i think it'll stick with Charlotte.

[jcubs55]

I think the horrendous let down spot is on the Bulls end here. 1st game back after a long trip is tough and they have the Spurs to look forward too in the next one. I dont think the Bulls are too concerned with the Bobcats or double revenge. If anything, Bobcats winning twice shows that they match-up well with the Bulls which should give them an edge.

I really liked the Bobcats before they beat LA. Now that win, combined with them being below average b2b team makes me less confident. But the look ahead angles have been on fire recently, way more so then let downs after big wins, b2bs or revenge games so i think it'll stick with Charlotte.

I respect your opinion, but the Bulls are aware of their situation. The last time they came home from their 4-3 "circus" west coast trip (they play 7 games in a row out west while the circus is in town at the UC), they laid a HUGE egg against the Magic, losing 107-78. The team has addressed this and also inferred that they DO want to get on the court against Charlotte, and that they are out for revenge. Here's what Rose had to say:

‘‘The first game [back] is going to be hard,’’ Rose said. ‘‘I think it’s lack of energy when you first come back. If we come out and play very aggressive and with a lot of energy, it should be an easy game — especially because we’ve been wanting to play them, and we want a little bit of revenge.’’

As for matching up well, I don't think that's the case here. Boozer destroyed the Bobcats in the paint in the game he played, which was Rose's off game. Rose went for 33 the second time around without Boozer. We know both can play well against the Bobcats, and they should do so simultaneously this time. I also think we have some other good matchups, and I think Deng should be able to cut and drive to the hoop plenty of times tonight. The team that won't match up well tonight is the Bobcats, as the player who led them to their victories over the Bulls (Augustin) is ailing and struggling, while their most recent leader (Jackson) cooled off last night.

While everyone is saying 9 is too much and taking the points, it has just popped back up to -9.5 regardless... Bulls BLOWOUT!!!

[PorkyPig]

The spread is big but the Bulls will cover that easily. I see a similar setup like Spurs/Nets yesterday.

[swaindexter]

Nice write up. Good luck on your play

[nbarlotta3]

Nice writeup. I feel like 9 points might be too many for 2 teams that have very low scoring games.

[ManBearPig]

Some tidbits related to CHA on their B2B

• Road teams that played at home the previous night have gone 267-288 (48.1%) on this back end of the back-to-back scenario since ’06.
• Teams playing at home the night before having to go on the road are 283-277 ATS (50.5%) over the L3+ seasons.
• Teams playing against non-divisional conference foes on the back end of a back-to-back scenario are 386-414 ATS (48.3%) since ’06. On the front end, they are better, 416-400 ATS (51.0%).
• Road underdogs of +6.5 to +9.5 points are 154-151 ATS (50.5%) in the back end of the back-to-back scenario since ’06. On the front end, even more effective at 128-110 ATS (53.8%).
• When facing the NBA’s better teams, or those with a winning percentage of 60% or greater, teams are 281-276 ATS (50.4%) since ’06 on the back end of back-to-back games. On the front end, they have gone 294-294 ATS (50.0%).
• Teams winning between 40%-60% of their games on the season are 350-334 ATS (51.2%) in the back end of back-to-back games. On the front end, they are 322-340 ATS (48.6%).
• In terms of where a team plays in the back-to-back scenario, the most sound betting strategies arise either when a team plays consecutive nights at home, or consecutive nights on the road. In the home-to-home scenario, the team is a great bet in the first game (66.7% ATS) and a great FADE in the second (41.7% ATS). In the road-to-road setup, the team proves to be a sound bet on both sides, 53.3% ATS on the front, 52.3% ATS on the back.

What does this tell us...that's for you to decide. These aren't my opinions as I lifted them from an article that I would like to share about B2B's, but SBR makes it nearly impossible. So many people think you should fade a team on a B2B, but in reality it's not that simple. As you were.

[jcubs55]

Bulls up 52-45 at halftime... right on pace for that 14 point win that I predicted lol... hopefully they can keep controlling the game and slow down Charlotte's scoring a bit

[jcubs55]

Up 13 with under three minutes left!!! Hold on Bulls!!!!!!!!

[No coincidences]

Nice hit!

[jcubs55]

Nothing more rewarding than finding a gem like this. 106-94 final. Would've had the margin of victory predicted correctly as well if it weren't for a garbage time offensive rebound and score for the Bobcats with 10 seconds left... either way, I'll take the solid winner!!!

Hope some people tailed, always happy to help out!!

[dvnyc]

Well done!!

[demens]

Nothing more rewarding than finding a gem like this. 106-94 final. Would've had the margin of victory predicted correctly as well if it weren't for a garbage time offensive rebound and score for the Bobcats with 10 seconds left... either way, I'll take the solid winner!!!

Hope some people tailed, always happy to help out!!

Come on buddy. It covered by 3 points, 1 possession and it was within 1 possession the whole 4th qtr basically. Luck was on your side today. Congrats.

[hawley]

Come on buddy. It covered by 3 points, 1 possession and it was within 1 possession the whole 4th qtr basically. Luck was on your side today. Congrats.

I like you Demens but you can be a real c*nt sometimes

[demens]

I like you Demens but you can be a real c*nt sometimes

True.

Been getting the short end of the stick in these 1 possession covers this month.

[No coincidences]

True.

Been getting the short end of the stick in these 1 possession covers this month.

It's gambling.

Wins are wins -- losses are losses. Bottom line. A cut-and-dry poster like you should appreciate that more than anyone.

[hawley]

True.

Been getting the short end of the stick in these 1 possession covers this month.

Amazing how spot on the line is in the NBA huh, and I seem to be on the wrong side as well

Im sure everyone gets their fair share of bad beats though

[jcubs55]

Come on buddy. It covered by 3 points, 1 possession and it was within 1 possession the whole 4th qtr basically. Luck was on your side today. Congrats.

HAHA... I love when the biased losers come out from the shadows and try to bring down the winners with them... the Bulls led by 6 after the first quarter, 7 at half, 5 after the third, and took a double digit lead with over 9 minutes left in the game and never looked back... from then on the Bulls led by 8-15 (10+ for the entire last half of the 4th quarter), and were never in doubt... only reason Charlotte cut it to twelve at the end was because the Bulls stopped trying to score and stopped playing defense... put in the subs and ran down the clock... that "3 point cover" was really never in doubt for the last 10 minutes of play... don't be bitter just because things didn't work out for you. Hopefully you didn't lose too much money on this play, better luck next time.

To those who shared points and kind words, I appreciate the gestures. Best of luck to you all.

[demens]

Amazing how spot on the line is in the NBA huh, and I seem to be on the wrong side as well

Im sure everyone gets their fair share of bad beats though

Games i've had this month have not really been that close actually. Consistently beating closers just helped 1 time in 27 games so far. 7 of those were within the 1 possession cover though and 5 of those lost .

HAHA... I love when the biased losers come out from the shadows and try to bring down the winners with them... the Bulls led by 6 after the first quarter, 7 at half, 5 after the third, and took a double digit lead with over 9 minutes left in the game and never looked back... from then on the Bulls led by 8-15 (10+ for the entire last half of the 4th quarter), and were never in doubt... only reason Charlotte cut it to twelve at the end was because the Bulls stopped trying to score and stopped playing defense... put in the subs and ran down the clock... that "3 point cover" was really never in doubt for the last 10 minutes of play... don't be bitter just because things didn't work out for you. Hopefully you didn't lose too much money on this play, better luck next time.

To those who shared points and kind words, I appreciate the gestures. Best of luck to you all.

Relax buddy. Last time i checked leading by 7, 5 or 6 doesn't cover a 9 point line. The Bulls lead by 15 all of 40 seconds in this game so dont go too crazy celebrating the "easy" winner. Luck was on your side, nothing biased about it. I made my post in here earlier about what i thought on the play so not sure what shadows you think i'm coming from.

[jcubs55]

Games i've had this month have not really been that close actually. Consistently beating closers just helped 1 time in 27 games so far. 7 of those were within the 1 possession cover though and 5 of those lost .




Relax buddy. Last time i checked leading by 7, 5 or 6 doesn't cover a 9 point line. The Bulls lead by 15 all of 40 seconds in this game so dont go too crazy celebrating the "easy" winner. Luck was on your side, nothing biased about it. I made my post in here earlier about what i thought on the play so not sure what shadows you think i'm coming from.

You're right... leading by 7 after the first quarter doesn't cover the 9 point GAME line... it only paces them for a 28 point victory... lol. Didn't know teams were supposed to be covering the whole game by jumping out by double digits early and then playing point for point for the rest of the game. The Bulls covered the 1st quarter line, the halftime line, and the game line. There is no such thing as luck, that is just a naive person's term for variance. Show me any major betting angle in this game that resulted in a winner by betting Charlotte's side. When the better team is winning by 8-15 for the last 10 minutes of the game, they are extremely favored to cover, as any loss would would have to be squeaked out in the minimal end of their win margin range.

If it helps you sleep tonight, the Bobcats were covering for a grand total of 2:57 in the 4th quarter of today's game, and 1:48 of that was to start the quarter.

Please go take your crying somewhere else because you're not going to accomplish anything in here picking arguments with people who are smarter than you. Have fun trying to find your next "unlucky" play... when you get sick of losing you can OBSERVE one of my many winning threads, just don't post in them... gl.

[head_strong]

nice hit on da bulls gl to you tomorrow...

[playboy_1]

nice call.and write up.