my point SK, (and it is illustrated here with these posts) is to get people to evaluate picks and not blindly trust a capper without questioning their reasoning.
I have noticed in the past, many people losing large quantities of money blindly following Elbie's picks; failing to understand that he wagers high on what he
'wants' to occur, rather than what is
'likely' to occur. I don't care personally which team wins and which does not. I do not have a favorite team that i root for.
His last foray into the large wagers ended quite poorly with a substantial
15X bet on the Lakers (-3.5) versus the Spurs in LA. He is chasing a personal buzz and that makes him a dangerous person to tail (imho)... lotta people followed him off the cliff on that one. Spurs won 89-88. He really wanted his team to beat the Spurs.. but placing a large wager will not affect that.
More money does not make a wager more secure, it makes it weaker.
I routinely observe Elbie dive into waters with only a passing glance regarding the safety of the waters. I think he did that the
Jazz on Friday after
Jerry Sloan debacle.. he jumped on the Jazz as if Sloan had been fired.. (teams always come out gangbusters after those) but he
'resigned'.. totally different. Breaking up with a girlfriend and her 'leaving' is very different energy signature. The former creates sense of freedom, the latter an emotional hangover. The latter occurred and the Jazz lost easily to the Suns. It was a modest wager, hardly worth mentioning, but in light of this one it becomes so.
i think this massive Net wager is dangerous, because the observations here are surface. Spurs had a
great game over the Wizards,
but that does not necessarily mean that they are shot out, and will play poorly.
Gambling is a game of numbers. Right off the bat, the Net bet looks bad.. placing money on 17-45 over 45-9. That translates to
26-90 SU chance of winning that game. I know this is ATS, but people usually like better SU numbers than 1 in 3.5 chance of winning that game. Granted the Spurs will not shoot as well this game as they did in the last, but there are 50 more levels of stats to look at, that may have been ignored before designating this as
his "Play of the Year"
My wish is for everyone to make money, except bookies (really don't like them), and i hope this comes in for him. I always side with the Capper over the dreaded books.
I simply wish that people asked more questions, and that cappers posted their recent records, to show people what they are up to. People are obsessed with the stats of the teams in the matchups. Why not the stats of the capper?
The matchup in
any wager is really not the teams playing but the Capper vs. the Book.
"Cap your cappers like cappers cap their teams."
Good luck on this bet, i wish i did not think this was a coin toss, but i do.
At 25X, this bet should win outright, not win or lose by a bucket.
Folks, remember that a good bet is no longer in question with 4 minutes left.
If you won or lost by a single score, it was a bad pick.