1. 02-11-11 11:22 AM #1
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    30K NBA System

    I will be posting my NBA system picks here for the rest of the season. I developed a regression model a couple weeks ago and have been using it to select NBA ATS picks and totals. It has gone 14-9 so far. I know this is a small sample period but let's see how it does moving forward.
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  2. 02-11-11 11:24 AM #2
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    All bets are to win 1 unit.

    Two system picks today:
    Twolves/Pacers Under 218 (-110)
    Clippers/Cavs Under 206.5 (-105)
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  3. 02-11-11 01:51 PM #3
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    Adding
    Suns +6 (-105)
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  4. 02-13-11 11:51 AM #4
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    1-2

    Twolves/Pacers Under 218 (-110) L
    Clippers/Cavs Under 206.5 (-105) L
    Suns +6 (-105) W
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  5. 02-13-11 11:52 AM #5
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    2/13/11

    Lakers +1.5 (-105)
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  6. 02-13-11 12:28 PM #6
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    2/13/11

    Adding
    Clippers Under 208.5 (-105)
    Cavs Under 206.5 (-105)

    I just noticed Lang is on the Lakers so looks like I'm screwed now.
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  7. 02-13-11 02:33 PM #7
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    Final Card

    Lakers +1.5 (-105)
    Nuggets +3 (-107)

    Raptors Under 208.5 (-105)
    Cavs Under 206.5 (-105)

    There was a lot of movement on the Cavs Under. I wish I locked it in last night, but I like it as low as 206. I have the Lakers and Nuggets winning outright, but I'll take the points. Good luck today.
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  8. 02-14-11 10:25 AM #8
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    1-3 (-2.17 units)

    Lakers +1.5 (-105) L
    Nuggets +3 (-107) L

    Raptors Under 208.5 (-105) W
    Cavs Under 206.5 (-105) L

    Nuggets win the award for most pathetic 4th quarter performance
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  9. 02-14-11 11:00 AM #9
    allison13
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    GL with your system
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  10. 02-14-11 01:02 PM #10
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    One system play today

    Clippers +6 (-108)
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  11. 02-15-11 11:15 AM #11
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    0-1 last night (-1.08 units)

    Clippers crapped the bed 4th quarter
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  12. 02-15-11 11:17 AM #12
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    There are a couple totals that fit the system today. The spread lines are too sharp IMO and don't fit the system.

    76ers Over 190.5 (-109)
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  13. 02-15-11 01:53 PM #13
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    Adding

    Bulls Over 183 (-105)
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  14. 02-15-11 04:56 PM #14
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    Adding

    Pacers Under 206 (-110)
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  15. 02-15-11 04:56 PM #15
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    2/15 Final Card
    76ers Over 190.5 (-109)
    Bulls Over 183 (-105)
    Pacers Under 206 (-110)
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  16. 02-16-11 12:07 AM #16
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    2-1 +0.9 units
    Take it to the bank

    76ers Over 190.5 (-109) W
    Bulls Over 183 (-105) W
    Pacers Under 206 (-110) L
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  17. 02-16-11 10:08 AM #17
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    2/16/11
    Big Card Today

    Lakers -11 (-105)
    Golden State Warriors +5.5 (-109)
    Pistons Under 197.5 (-105)
    Celtics Over 185 (-105)
    Lakers Under 203.5 (-110)

    Leans
    Bucks Under 201 (-105)
    Mavs Under 200 (-103)
    Magic Under 201.5 (-105)
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  18. 02-16-11 10:40 AM #18
    bozeman
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    what do you mean by regression, what's regressing i mean?
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  19. 02-16-11 11:23 AM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by bozeman View Post
    what do you mean by regression, what's regressing i mean?
    Regression is an approach to modeling the relationship between a variable y (example- pts scored) and one or more variables denoted X (example FG %, TO, Avg pts scored,...etc).
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  20. 02-17-11 08:32 AM #20
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    Lakers -11 (-105) L
    Golden State Warriors +5.5 (-109) W
    Pistons Under 197.5 (-105) L
    Celtics Over 185 (-105) L
    Lakers Under 203.5 (-110) W

    Leans
    Bucks Under 201 (-105) W
    Mavs Under 200 (-103) L
    Magic Under 201.5 (-105) W

    2-3 system picks
    2-1 leans
    4-4 overall

    Should've just stuck with my leans!
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  21. 02-17-11 08:32 AM #21
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    2/17

    Spurs +2 (-105)
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  22. 02-22-11 11:47 AM #22
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    2/17
    0-1 -1.05 units
    Spurs +2 (-105) L
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  23. 02-22-11 11:48 AM #23
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    The season finally picks up again today. There are a few system plays. Good luck.

    Raptors+7 (-107)
    Wizards Under 208.5 (-105)
    Lakers Over 189 (-110)
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  24. 02-22-11 12:07 PM #24
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    good luck with your plays
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  25. 02-23-11 11:29 AM #25
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    0-3 (-3.22 units)

    Raptors+7 (-107) L
    Wizards Under 208.5 (-105) L
    Lakers Over 189 (-110) L
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  26. 02-23-11 11:29 AM #26
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    2/23/11

    Rockets -5.5 (-108)
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  27. 02-24-11 05:29 PM #27
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    0-1 -1.08 units

    Rockets -5.5 (-108)
    missed by a half pt...
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  28. 02-24-11 05:30 PM #28
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    Here goes nothing

    Nuggets +4.5 (-102)
    Bulls Over 192 (-103)
    Nuggets Over 204 (-103)
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  29. 02-24-11 05:35 PM #29
    spankie
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    i like the overs.. dont like the nuggets. gl sir.
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  30. 02-25-11 02:58 PM #30
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    The ones I felt good about lost, and the one I didnt' like won. That's how it usually works out. The nugs had the highest system score though. Overs were close to leans.

    1-2 -1.06 units
    Nuggets W
    Bulls Over L
    Nuggets Over L
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  31. 02-25-11 02:59 PM #31
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    2/25/11

    Jazz +6 (-109)
    OKC +6.5 (-108)
    Knicks -7.5 (-108)

    Bobcats Under 201.5 (-105)
    Heat Under 204 (-105)
    Pacers Under 208 (-110)
    Lakers Over 193 (-105)

    It also likes Nuggets +6.5, but I'm leaving that out due to back-to-back
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  32. 02-28-11 02:48 PM #32
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    3-4 -1.26 units

    Jazz +6 (-109) W
    OKC +6.5 (-108) L
    Knicks -7.5 (-108) L
    Bobcats Under 201.5 (-105) L
    Heat Under 204 (-105) L
    Pacers Under 208 (-110) W
    Lakers Over 193 (-105) W

    It also likes Nuggets +6.5 (lean) W
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  33. 02-28-11 02:52 PM #33
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    At the moment the system is not working out too well. It probably needs some fine tuning. I'll continue to post the plays for monitoring purposes.
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  34. 02-28-11 02:53 PM #34
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    2/28/11

    System picks for today are:
    Wizards Under 195.5 (-110)
    Kings Under 206.5 (-105)
    Nets Under 205 (-108)
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  35. 03-01-11 10:43 AM #35
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    2-1 +0.92 units

    Wizards Under 195.5 W
    Kings Under 206.5 W
    Nets Under 205 L

    Nets game went to OT and we still almost had the Under. Oh well you can't cap overtimes...
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