[dwluv3333]

This is a serious question. I never really understand why people are all like "omg 98% of the public is hitting it you better fade..."? Is it because people want to feel smart by not conforming, taking the 2% and winning? Vegas' ideal situation is to have 50% bettors on each side of the spread... I don't see them purposely misleading the odds to make a "too good to be true" line.

[ManBearPig]

This is a serious question. I never really understand why people are all like "omg 98% of the public is hitting it you better fade..."? Is it because people want to feel smart by not conforming, taking the 2% and winning? Vegas' ideal situation is to have 50% bettors on each side of the spread... I don't see them purposely misleading the odds to make a "too good to be true" line.

Some get too caught up in picking sides that aren't the popular side and fading the public is a trendy...trend. It even sounds good when you say it out loud...A lot of people who are just learning get caught in this trap and pay way too much attention to following who's betting on what side (I did) than actually capping the game and making the play regardless of the numbers say. I would be more interested in what the line movement is saying because if you cap something correctly you are looking for the optimal +EV line...if possible.

I highlighted the last line because some books will do this..it's called shading the line and they will do it to take more money in on one side when they know the public will blindly play it. The downside to this is if they get too greedy a smart player with a lot of money will sniff it out and pound the shit out of the other side to exploit this.

[face]

yea just pick the winner, it's the team the public likes lots of times, because the "public" is made up of us, a bunch of bettors.

[albo gator]

I do think there are some classic "public" teams such as the Lakers, Celtics, Yankees, Red Sox, Duke, UNC, etc. that a casino knows no matter what that the public will be on that side and therefore I am sure those books are smart enough to know their clientele and put in a premium on those teams lines. I know a guy who used to run the sports book at a small casino in Vegas and he said they added 1/2 to a full point every time the Lakers play when they opened their lines versus the prevailing off shore books.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

Public WAS ALL over Clevland +1 At Home Vs. Detroit, PUBLIC POUNDED NYK -7 At Home Vs Clip Show

[SR]

It all evens out in the end, books always win.

[Scahom1]

It all evens out in the end, books always win.

Exactly. Although my friend always jokes, never bet on the majority pick because the majority of gamblers are losers.

[MadTiger]

Explanation: contrarian approach.

[LLXC]

Good linesmakers usually already know what the public will take, and thus the line is already adjusted that way.

[riskyProps]

Yup, the lines are set to make the game more of a coin toss. There are so many games that was won and loss right at the spread. It's best to look for plays who lines are not valued correctly and played those regardless of what the public chooses.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

Yup, the lines are set to make the game more of a coin toss. There are so many games that was won and loss right at the spread. It's best to look for plays who lines are not valued correctly and played those regardless of what the public chooses.

EXACTLY!!! Classic Example:

When Miami played @ Clevland and It was LEbrons RETURN, Miami was -6, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

I PUT MY FUCKINGGG House on that Game and so did like 92% of the public bets

[Bradyd]

As with everything, you have to pick your spots. The perception is that the public does little to no research and plays whatever sounds good. There is some truth behind that, but that should not be the ultimate reason for selecting your pick. The public is not nearly as bad as most people think. The "fading the public strategy" is highly overrated by itself, very beneficial when added to other sound strategies.

[vyomguy]

public wins 48% of the times.