[lyon804]

Been reading alot of post and threads in this forum the last few days. It is comical to say the least. Over 90% of you need to take what you think you know and scrap it completely. If you are down on the NBA season what you are doing is not working. If you are making money than you have a clue. I read the words "trap" "rigged" "fixed" here daily. I read about "sharp" money all day long as if there are TONS of sharps betting. The truth is MOST people lose gambling. Most people lose because they have no idea what they are doing. I read about "head fakes" on line moves and I read about "SHARP" line moves. The majority of it all is just noise and completely false. VEGAS DOES NOT HAVE TO TRICK ANYBODY! They have a built in advantage called the "vig" or "juice". Has any games been rigged? Sure. Is any of the line moves SHARP money? Sure. Is any of the line moves "head fakes"? Sure. But you and I will never have any way of knowing. You may suspect it but you will never actually know. I noticed anytime a "better" team is on the road and slightly favored many of you think it is a "TRAP" That is false. The bookmakers don't have to trap people to win. The difference in home/away is factored in the line and accounts for about 3 pts in the NBA give or take. So next time when you see a "TRAP" ask yourself after you add 6 pts to the trap team to account for what the line would be if the team was at home would that be accurate. Would there be value either way or is the line "sharp"



Today for instance I have read a dozen or so Cleveland Cavs threads saying VEGAS KNOWS because they are now favored. Complete bullshit. The opener was Detroit -2 so if you flip the game and make Detroit the home team linesmakers are saying Detroit would have opened at -8 at home tonite. Last I checked Detroit was not worthy of being 8 pt home favorites over anybody and that includes the Cavs. Cavs are undervalued and "SHARP" money as you all like to say have bet them accordingly. Many people bet large amounts of money and that does not make them SHARP. Not everybody is a peon in this world. Some people bet large money that know very little and collectively they can move lines.



Gambling successfully in the NBA is challenging enough as it is. No need in making it harder by seeing an Indian behind every bush. All the bullshit about RLM, Sharp money, Public money, "head fakes" is just noise and you are making something hard even harder.


You need to give Vegas/linesmakers credit. They are obviously very good at what they do and more times than not put out a very sharp/accurate line. Vegas has models, statistical db's,etc.. Actually, I have no clue what all they have to there disposal, but I do know not one man is sitting around hanging numbers. The numbers are computer generated by man's input.



Bottomline, many of you need to get back to the basics of handicapping 101.

1) Understand the situation
2) Understand team current form
3) Handicap the game so you know value and bet the line accordingly
4) Last, but not least. Bet good numbers. If you can beat closers you will have a leg up. Use multiple books offshore and locals so you are always betting the best numbers you can.



At the end of the days games check sbr odds and look at the line movements for all totals and spreads and see what the difference was between winning,losing, and pushing. You will be shocked at how close many games per week come down to the number and the difference between winning and losing was the number you played.


I have DB's that prove almost everything over time is 50/50 on the closing number. What separates you from winning and losing is beating the closer unless you are a very skilled handicapper and there are only a handful of those around.


Just check Covers ATS numbers for NBA this season agaisnt the closers.


covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/trends/league/season.html



Nothing is profitable just blind betting it. You have to know something and beat closers.

[lunchbawks]

You don't need to beat closing #'s to make money wagering on the NBA.

Just make solid picks, and play small

[raiders510]

thanks lyon

[No coincidences]

This thread is rigged -- a trap to get you to believe lyon's bullshit.

[rkelly110]

Pick a game, flip a coin and use lab lines. Use the KISS method. (Keep It Simple Stupid)

[JR007]

unders are hitting at 54 %...they were at that level last year I believe

if you do not know the math behind the markets..you are just gambling...it is all probability and statistics

and knowing your edge ie +EV

[Ratzz]

This thread is rigged -

lol.. while this is funny quip..

the above post is informative, insightful and bears great fruit,
not to mention it's "good-lookin'-out" for the fellow capper... Four Stars.

[JR007]

You don't need to beat closing #'s to make money wagering on the NBA.

Just make solid picks, and play small

yes you do..openers are much easier to beat than closers...why do you think books set limits on overnight lines..it is just the oddsmakers opinion...not allowing for market correction..the closing line is the most accurate

[JR007]

Here we go again

[Tower]

So what's the play for today?

[widebody2]

yes you do..openers are much easier to beat than closers...why do you think books set limits on overnight lines..it is just the oddsmakers opinion...not allowing for market correction..the closing line is the most accurate

Could be wrong but I think line movement is based on more money being on one side of the line compared to the other. At this point the book doesn't actually care if they are capping the game correctly, they are more interested in making sure both sides of the line are equal so they have no risk. They only take their vig.

This would mean that openers, should in theory be more accurate (which I have no idea if they are or not) and that closers are just influenced by the public.

please correct me if I am wrong

[JR007]

I am no expert on this...but the books try to entice the public to bet into bad lines...at least from what I have read.......the vig would be a perfect scanerio..if the market was flat and there was split action on the game..which I believe seldom is....the idea is to generate as much profit for the sportsbook as possible

[sweetjones55]

Completely agree with everything Lyon said. The books ALMOST never gamble. So this whole idea that "the books cleaned up on the Heat backers tonight" is BS. They try to get even money on both sides on almost every game and just collect the 10% juice and the 20-30% juice from people that buy points on the games.

The 90% public plays hit 50% over long term. The 10% public plays hit 50% over long term. They would never make it so easy for us that we could just bet the big non-public plays and clean up. So whether it's a huge public play or not doesn't mean it's going to win or lose. Vegas cleans the public out with juice and the publics lack of bankroll management. They bank on people going all-in which may work 1, 2, 3 times but you will eventually get burned.

[Pensinger1]

Very solid post Lyon. Sometimes we all need a reminder to get back to the basics. Good read.

[lyon804]

Completely agree with everything Lyon said. The books ALMOST never gamble. So this whole idea that "the books cleaned up on the Heat backers tonight" is BS. They try to get even money on both sides on almost every game and just collect the 10% juice and the 20-30% juice from people that buy points on the games.

The 90% public plays hit 50% over long term. The 10% public plays hit 50% over long term. They would never make it so easy for us that we could just bet the big non-public plays and clean up. So whether it's a huge public play or not doesn't mean it's going to win or lose. Vegas cleans the public out with juice and the publics lack of bankroll management. They bank on people going all-in which may work 1, 2, 3 times but you will eventually get burned.

If you guys don't believe me take it from Sweetjones. If I am not mistaken this guy has the highest documented winning percentage here betting NBA.

[Chong Wizard]

Great post Lyon! You always drop knowledge! Breaking down the situation and understanding the teams current form have been working really well for me lately.

[Power Play]

Not easy to bet the NBA; if you break even long term you're a above average handicapper in my opinion. Agree with Sweet Jones Vegas cashes in on the public going all in and "juicing out" betters long term. Fading the public is unreliable in the NBA; if you do it long term you might hit 51%; not enough to profit unless you find a -101 book. Money management is the most important factor in gambling. As for picking games, don't overthink the room (fading public blindly for example), isolate undervalued and overvalued team ats wise and fade/follow them until the value is gone, and play situation (3 games in 4 nights for example. People have a tendency to look at SEASON ats marks when trying to find under/over valued team and I think that's a mistake. It's better to find value based on CURRENT form and if anything FADE season ats marks rather than follow because Vegas will adjust and by the end of the season it will even out. Real nice example (in baseball) is the Padres last year when they were extremely undervalued first half of the season but eventually Vegas adjusted and it no longer made sense to play them much the second half.

[VegasPlayer]

If you guys don't believe me take it from Sweetjones. If I am not mistaken this guy has the highest documented winning percentage here betting NBA.

Couldn't agree more. If you don't believe it & have the opportunity, go sit at a book like the Hilton in Vegas and watch the board and what you can see behind the counter. They are doing everything they possibly can to insure they have even money on both sides. Or better yet, watch mister 10 teamer at the window making his picks off the overnight sheet like a lottery tivket and paying no attention to the board at all. That is how Vegas makes money.

[demens]

I would be called names for making this post.

[docvinny]

Couldn't agree more. If you don't believe it & have the opportunity, go sit at a book like the Hilton in Vegas and watch the board and what you can see behind the counter. They are doing everything they possibly can to insure they have even money on both sides. Or better yet, watch mister 10 teamer at the window making his picks off the overnight sheet like a lottery tivket and paying no attention to the board at all. That is how Vegas makes money.

[lakerboy]

Lyon what is up with that avatar?



Good read. My way is just playing situationally and looking for games where the bettors think it is easy to take one side.

[BernardMadoff]

Pretty much agree with this, tried to explain the home/away factor to someone yesterday, hope they understood. Many think Vegas is taking sides on many of these games, its just not the case, they dont need to, doesnt make sense for two entities to be gambling, thats what they have us for, why would they gamble also. The key is no doubt getting the best number or what you think is the best number, some like to wait till right before game starts to bet, but youre about 90% of the time getting the worst number and worst value by then.

[t-wizzle]

I would have to agree with pretty much everything you said Lyon. If you are not a long-term bettor who is able to consistently beat the closer, then you have to be damn good, f****** amazing (and lucky) to make money.

[Pauulzcappin]

Great post. For those who don't know lyon is the gambler on the forum who is most up in this nba season -- by far.

[BiePoker]

very interesting.. I just don't like the conclusion.. I'd better say if you are good, you will skip matches like Cavs-DEtroit today and would make money on NBA

[MexicanStallion]

Thanks for sharing. I am no NBA fan to really bet on it much.

[DemoralizdDreamr]

Thanks for the Info Bro

[William Walters]

I would be called names for making this post.

demens.............who's the hotty in your avatar?

[ShogunRua]

Solid post. Vegas leaves me with my head scratching all the time. Trying to figure out why the line is moving, why the line is so high/low. I think more times than not I over think things and it leads to an impulsive bet.

[Whippit]

demens.............who's the hotty in your avatar?

Theresa Correa

demens & I had same discussion long time ago

[Chuck Sims]

I am no expert on this...but the books try to entice the public to bet into bad lines...at least from what I have read.......the vig would be a perfect scanerio..if the market was flat and there was split action on the game..which I believe seldom is....the idea is to generate as much profit for the sportsbook as possible

A linesmaker would be fired within a week if he posted bad lines to entice the public. This is not rocket science fellas.

The empty suits in Vegas said Steeler money would be flowing in by game time. They were wrong.

[lakerboy]

Lyon i have a question. I do agree with much of what you said but i disagree when it comes to the NBA becuase the books have so many games where they can get isolated action.

For example Dallas is only -5 in Sactown tonight. Is that a fair line based on the 6 point home/away thing that i always hear about? The reason i am asking is that they were -7.5 in Sactown last time about two months ago. now of course this is not the be all and end all game but just wondering.


Same thing with the MAgic game.

[t-wizzle]

Lyon i have a question. I do agree with much of what you said but i disagree when it comes to the NBA becuase the books have so many games where they can get isolated action.

For example Dallas is only -5 in Sactown tonight. Is that a fair line based on the 6 point home/away thing that i always hear about? The reason i am asking is that they were -7.5 in Sactown last time about two months ago. now of course this is not the be all and end all game but just wondering.


Same thing with the MAgic game.

Why would they not adjust the Magic line? Orlando hasn't been that good and the 76ers have improved vastly as the season has gone on.

[lakerboy]

Why would they not adjust the Magic line? Orlando hasn't been that good and the 76ers have improved vastly as the season has gone on.

They adjusted it by a point. Hardly much off an adjustment considering how bad philly just beat Atl.

You would think Philly should be favored here.

My question was more in tune with the Dallas game.

[t-wizzle]

They adjusted it by a point. Hardly much off an adjustment considering how bad philly just beat Atl.

You would think Philly should be favored here.

My question was more in tune with the Dallas game.

Didn't Dallas have the best record in the league at the time of the first matchup?