[lakerboy]

Didn't Dallas have the best record in the league at the time of the first matchup?

They might have i cant remember. Havent they won 9 in a row and are a top 4 team in the league right now? Sac is still a .250 ball club. The line has no need to drop 2.5 points from then. Books want Dallas money on this game- plain and simple.

[t-wizzle]

I think the number is pretty much dead on but I like Sac if that's what you're getting at. They've played good teams tough at home.

[Pauulzcappin]

They might have i cant remember. Havent they won 9 in a row and are a top 4 team in the league right now? Sac is still a .250 ball club. The line has no need to drop 2.5 points from then. Books want Dallas money on this game- plain and simple.

THey do? Did they also want SA money when they were only 4 point favs on Sac town less than a week ago?

Sac is an improved ballclub but they still lose tonight.

[lyon804]

Lyon i have a question. I do agree with much of what you said but i disagree when it comes to the NBA becuase the books have so many games where they can get isolated action.

For example Dallas is only -5 in Sactown tonight. Is that a fair line based on the 6 point home/away thing that i always hear about? The reason i am asking is that they were -7.5 in Sactown last time about two months ago. now of course this is not the be all and end all game but just wondering.


Same thing with the MAgic game.

Yes it was Dallas-7.5 last time, but keep in mind that Sacramento did cover that number and the reason the numbers was so high to begin with is at the time the numbers came out Sacramento was awful and couldn't win a game. Dallas was also rolling and healthy. Since then Sacramento has won some games and been very competetive in quite a few others. The adjustments make since in both games. Orlando was -9 at home last time against Philly and Philly took them to the wire. Since that game Philly has improved and Orlando is showing signs of regressing especially without Brandon Bass available. Linesmakers opened Orlando -2 @ Philly which is the same as Orlando -8 at home against Philly. thus the 1 pt adjustment to compensate for Orl recent regression and Philly recent improvement.

[lakerboy]

Paul the spurs were playing a b2b game after playing in LA. That's why the line was only-4.

[madrabbit]

he's got a point im sick of reading these fa\*\*ot ass sayings sharps, squares, traps, public etc most here are a bunch of ******* morons. Vegas knows something pfffffffffffft!

[t-wizzle]

Paul the spurs were playing a b2b game after playing in LA. That's why the line was only-4.

Dallas is on a b2b tonight too.

[lakerboy]

Yes it was Dallas-7.5 last time, but keep in mind that Sacramento did cover that number and the reason the numbers was so high to begin with is at the time the numbers came out Sacramento was awful and couldn't win a game. Dallas was also rolling and healthy. Since then Sacramento has won some games and been very competetive in quite a few others. The adjustments make since in both games. Orlando was -9 at home last time against Philly and Philly took them to the wire. Since that game Philly has improved and Orlando is showing signs of regressing especially without Brandon Bass available. Linesmakers opened Orlando -2 @ Philly which is the same as Orlando -8 at home against Philly. thus the 1 pt adjustment to compensate for Orl recent regression and Philly recent improvement.

Lyon the kings are 8-23 since that Dallas game. I guess that is an improvement. Dallas is also roliing right now. Thanks for the response bud.

[Dexter]

They might have i cant remember. Havent they won 9 in a row and are a top 4 team in the league right now? Sac is still a .250 ball club. The line has no need to drop 2.5 points from then. Books want Dallas money on this game- plain and simple.

maybe the books are factoring in that dallas had a tough game as a 7.5 pt fav last time?

i agree...classic road favorite/sucker bet trap game.....

[lakerboy]

Dallas is on a b2b tonight too.

they played monday bro.

[t-wizzle]

they played monday bro.

You right

[Pauulzcappin]

As long as Dallas win IDC honestly

[lunchbawks]

I'll keep raking in the dallas road money.

You have problems to think Sac is the play tonight.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

People are a little scared cause SAC has the ability to cover at home, Dallas is to Elite tho, I got Dallas -5 all over my tickets, I like the 196 Over as well

GL on your plays

[lakerboy]

I'll keep raking in the dallas road money.

You have problems to think Sac is the play tonight.

Did you take Dallas last time in Sac as well? Honest question.

[lyon804]

Lyon the kings are 8-23 since that Dallas game. I guess that is an improvement. Dallas is also roliing right now. Thanks for the response bud.

Sure you are right, but keep in mind the 13 games Sac had prior to Dallas they were 1-12 S/U and the only win was against New Jersey. Since there last meeting would you say Dallas is a better team? NO, they may be rolling currently but they sure are not better. Would you say Sacramento has improved since that game? YES. There record may still suck but look how close they have been to beating some good teams. Sacramento has improved since then while Dallas has not thus the 2.5 move.

[lunchbawks]

Did you take Dallas last time in Sac as well? Honest question.

No, and explain to me why doesn't doesn't get their 10th straight W tonight. Because Sac only lost by 2 vs Dallas their last game out?

[lakerboy]

Sure you are right, but keep in mind the 13 games Sac had prior to Dallas they were 1-12 S/U and the only win was against New Jersey. Since there last meeting would you say Dallas is a better team? NO, they may be rolling currently but they sure are not better. Would you say Sacramento has improved since that game? YES. There record may still suck but look how close they have been to beating some good teams. Sacramento has improved since then while Dallas has not thus the 2.5 move.

good points. so what is your opinion on the game?

[lakerboy]

No, and explain to me why doesn't doesn't get their 10th straight W tonight. Because Sac only lost by 2 vs Dallas their last game out?

Sure Dallas should win. I dont know if they win by 6 though. So you are taking Dallas ML? I thought this was a discussion about spreads.

[lyon804]

Yes, Dallas is a public play tonite. 2 things are gonna happen most likely unless a push occurs. The books are gonna rake in money if Sac covers, the books will lose money if Dallas covers. However Dallas -5 is just a 50/50 proposistion long term just like almost everything else unless you have a true situational/handicapping angle and can gain an edge. Thus over time the Books will make money on this game. They have a running figure and will not go out of business if Dallas covers tonite.

[Donnie Brasco]

Totally novice question but please answer. To beat the closer if u like the fave u wind laying less than the close and with dog u wind up catching more than the close?

[lakerboy]

Yes, Dallas is a public play tonite. 2 things are gonna happen most likely unless a push occurs. The books are gonna rake in money if Sac covers, the books will lose money if Dallas covers. However Dallas -5 is just a 50/50 proposistion long term just like almost everything else unless you have a true situational/handicapping angle and can gain an edge. Thus over time the Books will make money on this game. They have a running figure and will not go out of business if Dallas covers tonite.

So with a game to come in thin air on Thursday and if Dallas gets out to a bigger lead in the third/fourth qtr wouldnt that produce your situational angle with the Mavs possibly resting a few guys allowing the kings a backdoor cover? The reason im asking is cause the books are charging some extra juice on SAc first qtr and first half bets. Do the kings have some type of stats showing they are better in those time periods? Im just wondering.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

Books/House could give two shits about Daily plays, with the Vig and Time, it all evens out and everyone is a loser except the Books and like 10% of Betters, that 10% is probably like 2% when you average all bets in this entire country.

[Sportsplays42]

The NBA is is the most predictible league in all sports. Watch all the games, keep notes, keep stats. Look at all possible plays FH, SH, Q's, Sides, Totals, TT for the best value. All the teams have tendancies. How many times did LAL give up 2H leads last year? How many times has UTA Failed to cover the FH this year? Anyone know what percent an east vs. east team cover the second half total this year? Does ATL cover a higher percent of spreads at home or on the road? Who here studies every game played? Who here picks all the games and totals just to see how you do? Who is watching the first half of all the games to find value for the second half, sides and or totals? Who uses in-game betting or buys out at the half if possible?

Sportsbetters lose because of three reasons:
1. Just not smart enough.
2. Don't work hard enough at it.
3. Bad money management.

I hold a BA from USC, a MBA from UCLA and a PHD from Harvard (Yes, I know, but I'm a Trojan at heart)
I have no job, oh wait I cap over 12 hours a day during the week.
I keep to my money management plan.
I make a 6 figure income sportsbetting and grow my bankroll every year.

It can be done.
My best advice: You have to look at the long term. What do you want your sports betting to look like in 5 years? What do you have to do to get their? Set small goals along the way. If you want big money get a second job and grow that bankroll, It's kind of like the stock market, you have to have money to make money or you are risking too much. There is never ever a sure bet or a 20 unit bet. You are not playing against the books, you are playing against mathematical models that set the lines, however humans play the game not computers and the smart humans can win. Also, get out of sports gambling forms untill after you have made your picks and go with your first instincts.

PS, No I'm not a tout.

Knicks ML

[lyon804]

So with a game to come in thin air on Thursday and if Dallas gets out to a bigger lead in the third/fourth qtr wouldnt that produce your situational angle with the Mavs possibly resting a few guys allowing the kings a backdoor cover? The reason im asking is cause the books are charging some extra juice on SAc first qtr and first half bets. Do the kings have some type of stats showing they are better in those time periods? Im just wondering.

Haven't got a clue and no opinion on the game. I would not bet Sacramento and fade the recent surge of the Mavs just because I thought Carlisle might sit some guys late because they play Thursday. I think the line is a very good one and possibly go either way late.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

The NBA is is the most predictible league in all sports. Watch all the games, keep notes, keep stats. Look at all possible plays FH, SH, Q's, Sides, Totals, TT for the best value. All the teams have tendancies. How many times did LAL give up 2H leads last year? How many times has UTA Failed to cover the FH this year? Anyone know what percent an east vs. east team cover the second half total this year? Does ATL cover a higher percent of spreads at home or on the road? Who here studies every game played? Who here picks all the games and totals just to see how you do? Who is watching the first half of all the games to find value for the second half, sides and or totals? Who uses in-game betting or buys out at the half if possible?

Sportsbetters lose because of three reasons:
1. Just not smart enough.
2. Don't work hard enough at it.
3. Bad money management.

I hold a BA from USC, a MBA from UCLA and a PHD from Harvard (Yes, I know, but I'm a Trojan at heart)
I have no job, oh wait I cap over 12 hours a day during the week.
I keep to my money management plan.
I make a 6 figure income sportsbetting and grow my bankroll every year.

It can be done.
My best advice: You have to look at the long term. What do you want your sports betting to look like in 5 years? What do you have to do to get their? Set small goals along the way. If you want big money get a second job and grow that bankroll, It's kind of like the stock market, you have to have money to make money or you are risking too much. There is never ever a sure bet or a 20 unit bet. You are not playing against the books, you are playing against mathematical models that set the lines, however humans play the game not computers and the smart humans can win. Also, get out of sports gambling forms untill after you have made your picks and go with your first instincts.

PS, No I'm not a tout.

Knicks ML

I like the input, why not start a thread so your 12hrs a day (awesome day job by the way) can have an impact for the common good!!

[Dexter]

The NBA is is the most predictible league in all sports. Watch all the games, keep notes, keep stats. Look at all possible plays FH, SH, Q's, Sides, Totals, TT for the best value. All the teams have tendancies. How many times did LAL give up 2H leads last year? How many times has UTA Failed to cover the FH this year? Anyone know what percent an east vs. east team cover the second half total this year? Does ATL cover a higher percent of spreads at home or on the road? Who here studies every game played? Who here picks all the games and totals just to see how you do? Who is watching the first half of all the games to find value for the second half, sides and or totals? Who uses in-game betting or buys out at the half if possible?

Sportsbetters lose because of three reasons:
1. Just not smart enough.
2. Don't work hard enough at it.
3. Bad money management.

I hold a BA from USC, a MBA from UCLA and a PHD from Harvard (Yes, I know, but I'm a Trojan at heart)
I have no job, oh wait I cap over 12 hours a day during the week.
I keep to my money management plan.
I make a 6 figure income sportsbetting and grow my bankroll every year.

It can be done.
My best advice: You have to look at the long term. What do you want your sports betting to look like in 5 years? What do you have to do to get their? Set small goals along the way. If you want big money get a second job and grow that bankroll, It's kind of like the stock market, you have to have money to make money or you are risking too much. There is never ever a sure bet or a 20 unit bet. You are not playing against the books, you are playing against mathematical models that set the lines, however humans play the game not computers and the smart humans can win. Also, get out of sports gambling forms untill after you have made your picks and go with your first instincts.

PS, No I'm not a tout.

Knicks ML

with a PHD from Harvard, you should be ashamed for only having a 6 figure income....

unless its $999,999....ha

[sweethook]

gl. man

[Power Play]

Good Luck!

[lunchbawks]

Sure Dallas should win. I dont know if they win by 6 though. So you are taking Dallas ML? I thought this was a discussion about spreads.

Lol actually yea. I almost always add points for + value on dallas road games.

Got Mavs -5 (-105) annd
-6(+112)

Only because i believe they will cover the SPREAD

[lakerboy]

Good to see the kings cover here. Like i said the books wanted you to take Dallas -5. They take sides sometimes. The sooner people get that the better. Do they take sides often - no.

[demens]

How can you not accept that teams change throughout the season and the lines change with them.