[lolbear]

I'm not a great capper but this one I really like today:

Two Team 4.5 point Teaser:

• 2/5/2011 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 505 Portland Trailblazers* -2 vs Cleveland Cavaliers
• 2/5/2011 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Los Angeles Lakers* -½ vs New Orleans Hornets

Risking $20.00 To Win $20.60

I guess there is always a chance Cavs come out strong tonight, but safer to bet with the trend than against them. Both teams are on their segababa and both teams travel similar distance back to Cleveland tonight. There is a huge chip on Cleveland's shoulder and their determination should be up there. Their last two games against pacers and grizzlies either inspired them, or really drained them out. It's probably a mix of both. Against a very underrated team in Portland though, they would need more than determination. After losing against the Pacers last night (who barely beat the Cavs on Wednesday), the Portland now falls behind by half a game behind the Grizzlies for the final spot in the playoff race. This is a game they should see not so much as a must-win, but a must-not-lose. Tonight is Portland's 4th game in 5 nights, but 4th in 7 nights overall compared to Cavs' 5 games in 7 nights. Depth wise and talent wise, Blazers win hands down. I heard Gibson might be back today, but he is overrated IMO, a good streaky shooter at best. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans, I don't think this will be the game that the Cavs break their streak and I think the Blazers can definitely cover two points.

Lakers are in a slump again and on the news everywhere, but they truth is they were dead-even with a still-underhyped Spurs team (barring injuries). They had a day to rest and regroup and it is hard to count on Kobe shooting 5-18 again, but it was a prettier sight seeing him willing to pass it off to Odom and Gasol in the final minute of that game against the Spurs. Bynum looked decent and while their bench is still questionable at best (esp with Barnes injured), the Hornets are looking at a couple of major injuries themselves. Former Laker Trevor Ariza is out for a couple of weeks, meaning they will be leaning those minutes on rookie Quincy Pondexter and the wildly inconsistnet sophomore year bust Marcus Thornton. More significant, however, will be missing Emeka Okafor, who is one of the more underrated defender and double double guy in the league. Without the former second draft choice, I can imagine Hornets having a lot of difficulty defending the post against Gasol and Bynum. Looking at their last 5 games, both teams went 2-3 and dropped 3 out of their last 4. However, Hornets beat the Warriors and the Wizards. Even the Cavs might come close against Wizards playing them at home. Both Hornets and Lakers lost to the Kings, but Lakers also lost to the Celtics and Spurs, easily understandable, while beating two respectable teams in Jazz and Rockets. There is no doubt Kobe is ready to quiet doubters for the second time this season. Without Okafor and Ariza, I don't think Chris Paul will be able to do enough to beat the Lakers, even at home.

P.S. Anything can happen though, and I lose every bet I place, so maybe it's the good news for Cavs fans that I placed a bet against them.

[lolbear]

Games were closer than I had hoped, but glad the better teams pulled off the wins at the end.

For tomorrow, I have another play that I like (4.5 point 2-team teaser):

• 2/6/2011 12:05 PM NBA Basketball 801 Philadelphia 76ers* +9 vs New York Knicks
• 2/6/2011 12:05 PM NBA Basketball 803 Indiana Pacers* +3½ vs New Jersey Nets

Risking $15.00 To Win $15.45

I'm sure a lot of you have noticed, but Philly has played extremely well lately. They have won 6 out of their last 7 games and are certainly overachieving under the miracle work of Doug Collins this year. They have the Knicks' number so far, winning both match ups this year, last one coming in just two days ago on Friday when 76ers pull out a 2 point thriller. The Knicks will without a doubt be motivated, but the sixers are simply playing at a high level right now, especially with the rejuvenated Elton Brand who might be at his best shape since his pre-injury era. Truth is, 76ers have not lost by more than 8 points for over a month-- when they lost on December 27th to the Warriors by 15. That is a span of 18 games that they have won or lost by 8 or less points. Along the way there were certainly legit teams such as Lakers, Suns, Hornets, and Jazz. The team is playing too well right now I don't see them losing by more than 8 tomorrow, even on the road. Elton Brand should be able to continue his streak against a defenseless Amare. Wilson Chandler is back, but Andre Iguodala is playing at a high level as well. Jrue Holliday is certainly not that much behind Felton. It should be at least a close match, and noone would bet against Sixers winning SU.

The Pacers have won three in a row after following the dismissal of O'Brien, and to noone's surprise Collison is flashing the potential he showed when Chris Paul went down last year. The first two wins were not particularly impressive, but a win over the Blazers was assuring. On the otherhand, the Nets are not exactly a threat, losing 4 out of last 5 to below average opponents such as Bucks and Pistons. About 10 days ago, these two teams met and the Pacers blew the Nets out. Roy Hibbert is finally out of the doghouse (somewhat) with the release of the nightmare that is O'Brien, but doesn't look sharp against Blazers, a strong defensive team. However, we are talking about matching up against Brook Lopez, a talented 7 footer who averages about 5 ridiculous boards. Hibbert should have a decent game against the soft big man, while Pacers will try to slow down Lopez on the defensive end with their number of usable big men like Foster and Hansborough. Ultimately, this Pacers team has a notch over the Nets talent wise, and morale wise these teams are in opposite direction. A week ago these are two teams struggling to find consistency in their roster. Pacers successfully achieved that by firing O'Brien, but the Nets are still a mess with the whole Troy Murphy situation. Pacers are a worse team on the road, and Nets are better at home, but that's why we get this spread. I think Pacers will continue to beat weaker teams up with Granger leading the way with the improved Collison/Hibbert combo, while struggling against some better teams. Nets belong in the weaker teams category and I don't think they can pull off a win. I throw in half a unit on Pacers PK as well.

Good luck!

[lacesout]

Nice hit yesterday, good luck with today's play!

[Mike the Greek]

Good points you make in your write-up, sound reasoning...you'll stay a winner with this attitude ...Thanks for the input....

[lolbear]

Thanks guys, but unfortunately Sixers just couldn't step up defensively today. Brand was a step slower than Amare and most importantly Amare knocks down those mid/long range jump shots and Brand just had to step out which IMO was worse than giving him that open look. Thad and Lou Williams came out strong but again lack of defense killed them. Landry Fields was spot on. I thought Sixers would keep it close thus the teaser but unfortunately missed by five points still. Pacers got the easy W against a listless Nets team. Betting .5u on Pacers saved half my day.

Hope to do better next time!

[lolbear]

Going to give it a shot

• 2/7/2011 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Boston Celtics* -½ vs Charlotte Bobcats
• 2/7/2011 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 704 New Orleans Hornets* -4 vs Minnesota Timberwolves
• 2/7/2011 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 707 Cleveland Cavaliers* +18½ vs Dallas Mavericks

Risking $15.00 To Win $29.25
Boston is on the tail end of a back to back and on the road against Charlotte. Marquis Daniels is injured, and SJax is scoring at will. But that's about it when it comes to disadvantages against Celtics. Having a PK line for the C's is too good to turn down, as they dominate the Bobcats talent wise. Ray Allen is 3 short of the record now, but has yet to show sign of that breaking his nerve-- you would expect no less from the man. Gonna keep it short and simple, Celtics team is too good to lose to the Bobcats unless they mentally collapse. Is it possible? Yes, but highly unlikely.

New Orleans at home playing the Twolves, we are talking about a .750 team against a .250 team, where the home margin for the Hornets is 5 points better than road, and Timberwolevs are -11 on the road compared to home. No Okafor, no Ariza, and they still fought the Lakers to the end. The Timberwolves, despite Kevin Love, is still a mess and won't be able to handle a 4 point spread against the Hornets.

Cavs playing the Mavericks in Dallas tonight and while I am not a fan of Cavs and don't mind seeing them humiliate themselves further with the losing streak, they are admittingly playing a lot better the past few games. Hopefully this isn't one of those "we broke the record, nothing to play for anymore" type of deal. Otherwise, Cavs scored over 100 points against one of the top defenses in the Blazers and played Grizzlies and Pacers down to the wire, two playoff caliber teams. Mavericks while an owner of a 35-15 record, only holds a 4 point advantage average margin at home this year. I think the Mavericks are overrated, but they are NOT a team that runs over other teams (unlike the Heat, for example). They are not flashy and that's why they are a bit underhyped at the moment. They have yet to beat a team by more than 15 this season, and I have faith in the Cavs keeping this one decently close.