[wiffle]

deposit 1k, double every year for 10 years = 1million. ez game
it will take you almost 3 years to get 1k in your plan
oh and bet the games you have an advantage and dont limit yourself to 1 game

[frostno98]

Can you win American IdolYou know the answers to both, neither achievable in your lifetime.

[MJFtheGenius]

stranger things have happened...

wait can't think of one

[wiffle]

this really is not that hard

[Flexin]

I think people are just seeing the "$100 to $900,000" part and deciding it's ridiculous. You've gotta consider how long of a time 10 years is though. Turning a $116 roll into $288 over the course of an entire year isn't anything outlandish. I have a few questions though: What's the rationale behind limiting yourself to one wager a day? If some day you find two plays that you think are highly misvalued, what is the benefit of letting one of the quality bets go to waste by not taking it? How much are you betting a day at this point? I'm wondering what kind of losing streak would result in you getting cleaned out. Also, I don't understand what you mean when you say that your betting amounts won't be very progressive. It seems like this entire plan is based on adjusting your bets in relation to your bankroll- otherwise you're only making $172 a year. What are you basing your bet progressions on?

Why take both bets? There is no advantage other then covering most of your loses for the day if you win only one.

Betting two games can go 4 ways. First games wins/second loses, First loss/second win, loss/loss, win/win. Only one of those has you making any money.

Pick the best of the two and roll with it.

James

[Flexin]

Can you win American IdolYou know the answers to both, neither achievable in your lifetime.

He has goal of .28% a day. Betting a -5000 game will give him 2%. Its not like he is shooting for the stars short term.

If he could hit is first year mark, he could withdraw and then load his money on another book getting a bonus. Get the right one and he will hit his second year mark just by getting the bonus.

He is looking to make a very small amount daily on avg to reach is goal. If he can pick winners he will do fine. If he doesn't then it doesn't matter if his goal is $300 or $3000000.

But with the small gain he is looking for I would almost think about sticking to ml bets. A -500 bet will get him a 20% gain for the day. Thats way more then he was looking for, its a little easier to find that winner and will still shorten the time needed to reach his goal.

James

[Kindred]

you'll be broke in a week

[wiffle]

Why take both bets? There is no advantage other then covering most of your loses for the day if you win only one.

Betting two games can go 4 ways. First games wins/second loses, First loss/second win, loss/loss, win/win. Only one of those has you making any money.

Pick the best of the two and roll with it.

James

you should bet all the games you have an advantage

[whatsgood5]

I literally lold

[whatsgood5]

But good luck with this nonetheless

[Chimneyfish]

Why take both bets? There is no advantage other then covering most of your loses for the day if you win only one.

The advantage is that he makes money when he wins bets. If he has a good reason to believe that the actual odds of a play are much lower than a book has them listed, he would be wasting an opportunity by following this arbitrary 24 hour rule. Betting two games one day and none the next is the same as betting one game each of those two days.

Betting two games can go 4 ways. First games wins/second loses, First loss/second win, loss/loss, win/win. Only one of those has you making any money.

You're essentially just arguing against sports betting in general because the vig gives the bookmaker an edge. The same situation exists for any two wagers placed in any relation to each other. You could use the same argument against placing single bets on two consecutive days, look:

"Betting one game each day for two days can go 4 ways. First day wins/second day loses, First day loss/second day win, loss/loss, win/win. Only one of those has you making any money."

People can sometimes get hung up on this "winning day" idea. In reality it doesn't matter. What matters is the total number of wagers you win and the total you lose.

[Flexin]

you should bet all the games you have an advantage

Not if they are played at the same time. If they are played at different times I will agree to a point. My thing is look for the best game and play that.

The advantage is that he makes money when he wins bets. If he has a good reason to believe that the actual odds of a play are much lower than a book has them listed, he would be wasting an opportunity by following this arbitrary 24 hour rule. Betting two games one day and none the next is the same as betting one game each of those two days. You're essentially just arguing against sports betting in general because the vig gives the bookmaker an edge. The same situation exists for any two wagers placed in any relation to each other. You could use the same argument against placing single bets on two consecutive days, look: "Betting one game each day for two days can go 4 ways. First day wins/second day loses, First day loss/second day win, loss/loss, win/win. Only one of those has you making any money." People can sometimes get hung up on this "winning day" idea. In reality it doesn't matter. What matters is the total number of wagers you win and the total you lose.

I don't care about the vig in a way. What I'm talking about it making mistakes trying to get to many games in. Like I just said. If they are played at different times then I can agree somewhat. If they over lap then pick the best one.

His goal has a low daily target. I think his best bet is to pick his spots even if it at times leaves a 2 day gap between plays.

If there is a few games in a day that look that good, why not just parlay them?

James

[wiffle]

"I don't care about the vig in a way."

lol



and what difference does it make if the games are at the same time

[booboo]

Lots of good input here. I am just getting started here with this plan. I don't have much to say right now other than to make my play for the day. I am reading everything and making early decisions. Thanks all for posting!

Here is the pick
Getting off to a rough start here. So far 0-2 as lost again last night. Hopefully get a win tonight.


Todays play is
NEW ORLEANS -4.5

Good Luck All!

[Chimneyfish]

Not if they are played at the same time. If they are played at different times I will agree to a point. My thing is look for the best game and play that.



I don't care about the vig in a way. What I'm talking about it making mistakes trying to get to many games in. Like I just said. If they are played at different times then I can agree somewhat. If they over lap then pick the best one.

His goal has a low daily target. I think his best bet is to pick his spots even if it at times leaves a 2 day gap between plays.

If there is a few games in a day that look that good, why not just parlay them?

James

I'm not saying he should try to get into a lot of games. I just want to know what the reasoning behind his one-bet-a-day rule is. There could be a situation where two plays meet his criteria for a bet worth making and that he would bet if the games were on different days, but for some reason won't bet them if they're on the same day. The problem with making a rule to wager a certain number of plays every day (even if it's just one) is that you could be leaving additional valuable plays on the table, or getting forced into betting plays you wouldn't normally make.

Parlaying would be a bad idea. Even with a two-team parlay, the actual odds of hitting both games (3-1) is always higher than the payout odds offered at any sportsbooks (2.6-1 standard). Betting each game separately offers better odds. Parlaying is for tourists.

[booboo]

Several questions have come up about the number of bets/day I will be making. What I can tell you is that my first thoughts are to make one play a day and pick the best play. You are right though. There may be some days where there are more than one play that are showing value. So on those days I may go with more than one play. Like posters have said on here ten years is a long time. What I don't want to do is chase my losses.

[skjjb4]

Several questions have come up about the number of bets/day I will be making. What I can tell you is that my first thoughts are to make one play a day and pick the best play. You are right though. There may be some days where there are more than one play that are showing value. So on those days I may go with more than one play. Like posters have said on here ten years is a long time. What I don't want to do is chase my losses.

This plan sounds like what everyone else wants. No chasing, winning bets and watching your bankroll grow. I wish you luck. I think you should stick with one play a day. There will almost always be more than one play a day with value but look for your best and go with it.

[Augustus]

The Kings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 meetings against the Hornets since 2007.

[booboo]

I was asked a question about my wager sizes. This was my response to that question.

I have certain goals that I am needing to meet. I have a goal at the end of the year. I am working towards those goals. Right now bet size is pretty much irrelavant. I am going with 2% of bankroll attempting to meet those goals. I need to figure out a winning method to get there first. The one thing I don't want to do is get into a situation where I have to chase. This first year is for learning. I am determining a way to win. If need be I can add to these funds to reach the goal.

In addition to this by going with one event I can learn by what I am doing right or wrong. This is definitely a learning process.

Thanks for reading!

[frankzig]

bol on your goal it is the flukes that kill u

[Rich Boy]

I would be impressed if you still keep track of this thread in 10 years

[hitthew8room]

in 10 years this thread will be the most popular thread ever. u will be the true inspiration to all of us. thank you for being my hero. love u

[WvGambler]

nope

[wiffle]

I would be impressed if you still keep track of this thread in 10 days

FYP

[wiffle]

900k +1000000
No 900k -9999999

what odds would some of you give yourselves for this goal

[thisisit]

This should be interesting to keep up with lol

[booboo]

Washington State +4 vs. Washington

[riskyProps]

Nice goal but I have a question. There will be a point were you would reach the sports book limit single bet limits. How do you intend on continue with only 1 or 2 plays a day?

Secondly, I'm assuming your except your bankroll to increase on average of .28% a day. I figure this works out to about 8.7.% a month. To obtain this you have to win like 57 games out of 100. You'd be a good capper to do that.

[Chimneyfish]

I don't have any problem with this plan, I'm just wondering where you're getting these picks from. Have you won a wager yet?

Hornets +2 should have been the play today.

[Flexin]

Nice goal but I have a question. There will be a point were you would reach the sports book limit single bet limits. How do you intend on continue with only 1 or 2 plays a day? Secondly, I'm assuming your except your bankroll to increase on average of .28% a day. I figure this works out to about 8.7.% a month. To obtain this you have to win like 57 games out of 100. You'd be a good capper to do that.

No matter what you want to gain, you still have to win more they you lose. But to reach that goal he doesn't need to play everyday. Playing everyday might be a mistake. 8.7% is only $10.09. .28% is $0.33.

Most books are $1 min bet which would make about $0.90 win. He said he was going to play 2% of his bankroll. Doing this should get him his target in about 4 bets.

I think ML bets would be the safest way to do this. The win percentage would/should be higher while still getting the .28% each day or close to it.

James

[riskyProps]

No matter what you want to gain, you still have to win more they you lose. But to reach that goal he doesn't need to play everyday. Playing everyday might be a mistake. 8.7% is only $10.09. .28% is $0.33.

Most books are $1 min bet which would make about $0.90 win. He said he was going to play 2% of his bankroll. Doing this should get him his target in about 4 bets.

I think ML bets would be the safest way to do this. The win percentage would/should be higher while still getting the .28% each day or close to it.

James

Yes, the other part of my question is what to do when you reach the sports book limit. You will have to start playing a lot more games to move toward that goal. That's why sports book has limits. So you can't reach a million that easily.

[Karayilan9]

There is no point using money management for such small bankrolls, your best bet is going all in a few times then picking a few good spots until your up 2.5-5K then you can start managing your money.

[wiffle]

yeah, if you want to make your goal you need to get more $$$$ now for when your at 100k+

you should be able to to get $100 to $1000 in the first year being more aggressive than later on in the challenge

instead of trying to increase at a constant rate i think something like

100, 1000, 5000, 20000, 50000, 100000, 180000, 335000, 500000, 735000, 900000

is better

[booboo]

Won yesterday with Washington State. Today going with an NBA side.

Todays play is

Denver Nuggets -3

Good Luck All!

[booboo]

San Antonio/Portland Under 190