[nyplayer33]

Spurs Ml avail at Bet Phoenix

[Stinger]

I like this play a lot!!!

[adam3248]

was just looking at the card myself SJ and Spurs -3.5 jumped straight out. Best play on the card in my opinion along with Spurs minus whatever 1st quarter. I was on Lakers 1Q last night too. -2.5 was great value against the Jazz and the Spurs will be like -1 or -1.5Worth sticking at it until Jazz turn the tide. Fading them has been money in the bank this year 1st Q they've been awful. Until I see otherwise gotta keep fading.. Good luck!

[GAMBLOR777]

I agree with Beatles.

Sometimes one team just wants it more than the other, doesn't matter who's better.

In case you haven't noticed the Spurs have been slipping on the road.

Utah is the play.

Also like Magic to bounce back tomorrow -5.

[saints1856]

GAMBLOR777 - In case YOU haven't noticed, the Jazz have been slipping into a tailspin and coming home to face the Spurs isn't going to help one bit. $purs ML for me

[ParlayKing]

Even Deron Williams himself stated that his teammates Recently lack communication and team play, that they're relying on 1on1 bball. Basketball is a battle and one player can lead his team to victory if the opponet is a subpar team, but spurs offense can come from all angles and utahs gonna have trouble defending them inside and out.

[knicks573]

Spurs is the play

[kidcd]

Is it really that obvious or is this a case where too many on 1 side?

[MacApple]

Although all valid points......Sports Options has public at 77%

[ParlayJunkie]

I'm not gonna bet. IMO this is that perfect setup game where Vegas rakes in on everybody on the spurs, because Utah wins by 1 or 2 points or loses by 1 or 2 points. Just saying guys seen this type of game too many times. Spurs looks like they should completely cover this game. Then we end up shaking our heads saying this shit is fixed.

[hankcream]

Don't overthink it, this a great play. Nice work SJ

[fly fisher]

SJ you know I am a big fan of yours and I know you look at all the angles when you make your picks but tonight I can't play your pick. I am going to take Jazz fro 1.5 units to cover the game.

Part of my problem is being a Utard (as I call us that live in the behive state) and the other is just cuz I have been here so many years and seen Jerry Sloan day after day. So I am going against the pick not becasue I have some hard core stats to go against you, but because I know how the home crowd will be and how pissed Jerry Sloan is right now and how he will find a way to get the team focused. I expect D Will to have a great game and really control things, I can't stand Okur and wish they would trade him, but I think he will hit some crucial threes today to keep them in the game. I am paraphrasing here, but when the local Jazz announcers asked Sloan after the game what they need to do to win a game and Jerry responded, "Win a game, we can't win a game when we can't even win a quarter, we have lost like 7 quarters in a row now, we have to win a quarter to win a game.... the Lakers are a great defensive team, but when we can't even run our plays, then that is what we have to get fixed." I think Sloan has them ready tonight and the Utards here really hate the spurs and if we have officials in the game that give the Jazz an edge, then I think the jazz cover. I would also expect Sloan to put in some of the younger guys and sit some of the starters to set a precedent to "get your ass in gear and win or sit your ass down."

I am taking the Jazz for the game and I am going to take the Jazz first quarter for a unit. If the jazz win the first quarter today, i think they probaly win the game. My take, no real stats, just a feel for the situation the jazz are in.

Positives: Great crowd, Jerry is pissed, D Will is embarrased, CJ Miles will be ready, Okur sucks but will hit some crucial shots, defense will be better, believe that the Jazz and Jazz fans will frustrate Tim Duncan, and the Jazz are better than they have been playing.

Negatives: Spurs are better (I just don't think tonight), Who can guard Tim Duncan? No one consitently. Spurs a great Road Team

Unknown: Don't know who the refs are and who they will favor. Not sure how I determine that.

I may be totally wrong, but if the Jazz are going to step up and look like they can contend to be #1 in the NW Division then tonight is the night that they step up. Don't know when they have ever lost 5 in a row, don't think they will lose 6 in a row on their home court.

[Frostware]

Good luck. I don't think your going to need it on this one.

[saints1856]

The question you have to ask is: Will Sloan make the Jazz be able to flip on a stingy defense/run their offense correctly 'switch' and play better all of a sudden in 24 hours, after a beatdown by LA? Against the Spurs who have a day of rest?

[asiangambler]

wow im sure will follow you , good luck bro

[Vortexx00]

Like the Spurs too..Best of luck everyone

[nnhenry]

Playing Spurs, Magic, Thunder ml parlay.

[ridims]

nice write up!! I just mentioned the same things in another thread about someone taking the Jazz tonight....

[GGZOLA]

real question will vegas allow this utah team to not cover again? seems they have been set up with all these bad losses to beat spurs; if clippers can beat miami anything can happen...its a business folks remember that

[sweetjones55]

SJ you know I am a big fan of yours and I know you look at all the angles when you make your picks but tonight I can't play your pick. I am going to take Jazz fro 1.5 units to cover the game.

Part of my problem is being a Utard (as I call us that live in the behive state) and the other is just cuz I have been here so many years and seen Jerry Sloan day after day. So I am going against the pick not becasue I have some hard core stats to go against you, but because I know how the home crowd will be and how pissed Jerry Sloan is right now and how he will find a way to get the team focused. I expect D Will to have a great game and really control things, I can't stand Okur and wish they would trade him, but I think he will hit some crucial threes today to keep them in the game. I am paraphrasing here, but when the local Jazz announcers asked Sloan after the game what they need to do to win a game and Jerry responded, "Win a game, we can't win a game when we can't even win a quarter, we have lost like 7 quarters in a row now, we have to win a quarter to win a game.... the Lakers are a great defensive team, but when we can't even run our plays, then that is what we have to get fixed." I think Sloan has them ready tonight and the Utards here really hate the spurs and if we have officials in the game that give the Jazz an edge, then I think the jazz cover. I would also expect Sloan to put in some of the younger guys and sit some of the starters to set a precedent to "get your ass in gear and win or sit your ass down."

I am taking the Jazz for the game and I am going to take the Jazz first quarter for a unit. If the jazz win the first quarter today, i think they probaly win the game. My take, no real stats, just a feel for the situation the jazz are in.

Positives: Great crowd, Jerry is pissed, D Will is embarrased, CJ Miles will be ready, Okur sucks but will hit some crucial shots, defense will be better, believe that the Jazz and Jazz fans will frustrate Tim Duncan, and the Jazz are better than they have been playing.

Negatives: Spurs are better (I just don't think tonight), Who can guard Tim Duncan? No one consitently. Spurs a great Road Team

Unknown: Don't know who the refs are and who they will favor. Not sure how I determine that.

I may be totally wrong, but if the Jazz are going to step up and look like they can contend to be #1 in the NW Division then tonight is the night that they step up. Don't know when they have ever lost 5 in a row, don't think they will lose 6 in a row on their home court.

Ok here are the main problems with your argument.

You are saying that the home crowd is going to be a big factor. I just can't believe this to be true because Utah has already shown this year that they are NOT the same home team they used to be. They have already dropped 7 games at home. Four of the seven losses were by double digits. This just isn't the same dominant Utah home team. They aren't even a top 10 home team this year numbers wise.

Your next argument is that they are going to be pissed. Being pissed doesn't equate to playing well, it's almost always the opposite. They were pissed after losing to Washington, followed that up with a loss to NJ. They were pissed after losing to NJ, followed that up with another loss to Philly. They were really pissed after getting embarrassed by Boston. Followed that up with another embarrassment on NBA TV to LA.

You also say Sloan will have them ready. How do you figure? They were obviously not ready to play last night. They had to fly from LA to Utah, 3 hour flight, and the players were in bed at 4AM at the earliest. They will not have any time whatsoever to prepare/gameplan for the Spurs tonight. They will probably wake up around 12PM, eat, and head out to the arena. The players have constantly said "we don't know the plays", "we don't know what we are running". They didn't have that fixed for Boston and LA and there is ZERO reason to believe on back to back off a 5 game with long travel that they will have it fixed tonight.

Here are the questions you need to ask yourself Fly.

One — a recurring problem for the Jazz — is no one fouls more than they do. Opponents have long feasted at the line against Sloan’s teams, and that doesn’t figure to change.

1. Is there good reason to believe that will change against SA tonight who constantly attack the paint?

The Jazz have given up 47.3 percent FG and 40 percent from 3 point so far in January. Meanwhile, the Jazz still give up the most free throws per shot attempt, and, most disturbing of all, they’ve settled in at 27th in defensive rebounding rate. Only three teams allow a higher points per possession mark on spot-up opportunities than Utah, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports.

2. Is there good reason to believe that Utah will limit SA from the field? SA is ranked 3rd in the NBA in 3pt % and is ranked 4th in Effective FG%.

3. Is there good reason to believe that Utah will outrebound SA tonight. SA is ranked 4th in the NBA in defensive rebounds per game.

I just don't see Utah magically turning everything around in one night against the best team in the NBA and best road team. Refs are 47-55 ATS for home teams. I am very, very confident SA is the correct play.

[og4667]

seems pretty trappy, Utah is in desperate need of a win and home cookin may due the job. Not sure yet if the Jazz are worthy of a play in my book but if there is one thing you need to be aware of is that this is a big public play and the "Association" may decide to control the outcome of this game.

[sweetjones55]

seems pretty trappy, Utah is in desperate need of a win and home cookin may due the job. Not sure yet if the Jazz are worthy of a play in my book but if there is one thing you need to be aware of is that this is a big public play and the "Association" may decide to control the outcome of this game.

Refs are 47-55 ATS for home teams. Head ref favors road team as well.

[KuLaPhU]

Let me tell you this... JAZZ will take care of business tonight. I'll take the home dog.. they can't afford to lose at home. good luck San Anthony backers and congrats Utah backers.

[og4667]

Refs are 47-55 ATS for home teams. Head ref favors road team as well.

I don't care about ref stats, its up to what the Association decides. But if you wanna talk ref stats then you need to be more specific because the stats you gave above don't say if the home team was a favorite or a dog.

The 3 refs assigned to this game have a combined record of 12-5 ATS for a home dog ranging between 0-4.5 pts.

[Pauulzcappin]

I love how everyone just say that Utah is the play but no one can contest SJ's arguments about the Spurs. Let's hope our square play cashes.

[Rebel90]

Spurs is the correct pick and everyone knows it. Anyone picking a team on a losing streak that just got beat by 30 the night before over the best team in basketball is playing a "hunch" which I don't care about.

[sweetjones55]

I don't care about ref stats, its up to what the Association decides. But if you wanna talk ref stats then you need to be more specific because the stats you gave above don't say if the home team was a favorite or a dog.

The 3 refs assigned to this game have a combined record of 12-5 ATS for a home dog ranging between 0-4.5 pts.

Sample of 102 is much more noteworthy than 17.

[og4667]

I don't care about ref stats, its up to what the Association decides. But if you wanna talk ref stats then you need to be more specific because the stats you gave above don't say if the home team was a favorite or a dog.

The 3 refs assigned to this game have a combined record of 12-5 ATS for a home dog ranging between 0-4.5 pts.

This.

You make great arguments about how bad the Jazz are right now and how good the Spurs are right now but this is the NBA bud, anything can happen. I wish you luck on your Spurs play but I can see this game going down to the wire and there are better plays on the board.

[fly fisher]

All,
I appreciate that SJ responded to my hunches, which is exactly what they are. As far as odds go, SJ is most likely correct and is making the right call for the right reasons. Nothing is guaranteed, but SJ's argument is much more valid than mine (no real facts, just hunches) and in the long run will always be more profitable.

Now here is a real fact. If SJ wins it is becasue he did thorough research and made the right call. If I win, I will be the first one to say "I got lucky", cuz my bet is based mainly on me not being able to see the Jazz lose at home after 5 losses.

I have done well tailing SJ, making my own picks, hmmm not so well at all.

[sweetjones55]

All,
I appreciate that SJ responded to my hunches, which is exactly what they are. As far as odds go, SJ is most likely correct and is making the right call for the right reasons. Nothing is guaranteed, but SJ's argument is much more valid than mine (no real facts, just hunches) and in the long run will always be more profitable.

Now here is a real fact. If SJ wins it is becasue he did thorough research and made the right call. If I win, I will be the first one to say "I got lucky", cuz my bet is based mainly on me not being able to see the Jazz lose at home after 5 losses.

I have done well tailing SJ, making my own picks, hmmm not so well at all.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do tonight.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Hell ya sj

[GAMBLOR777]

SJ you've got a lot of stats and trends here

but these pages and pages of paragraphs won't help you tonight

The thing about the NBA is you don't have to win every game to make the playoffs

Both teams know this.

[wingoldracing]

spurs will win

[PorkyPig]

gotta fade utah till they get their $hit together

[sweetjones55]

Millsap is questionable and may not play tonight. Just in case you guys were wondering why the line has been turned off some places.