Takin' the Nuggets at -8. Its up to 9 now but I got it at 8. It seems like this game should be a close one, however there are a few reasons why it won't be. First, these teams usually put up huge totals when playing each other, so 8 really isn't as big as it seems. Also, Indiana, even though they seem to be immune to those blowout losses at the end of road trips, are due to get hammered. They played a really tough game against Portland last night that they lost. The nuggets meanwhile, have been at home, practicing every day in the high altitude, while Indiana is already gassed and they have to deal with the altitude change. Finally, Indiana blew out Denver earlier this year, and to me at every angle, this is a recipe for a blowout in Denver's favor.
Good win. 9-7 So far. Ok, my first pick for tomorrow night is Rockets -2. The Rockets have dropped a couple of games in a row, but the T'Wolves are looking real bad right now. They suck. I think without Kevin Love they would be worse than Cleveland and honestly I think they are the worst team right now; they are 2-8 so far in 2011, and with Kevin Love putting up big numbers in all of those losses, AND with Darko and Ridnour banged up, this is one to lock down.
Adding two more picks for tonight. First, Philly -4 at home against Phoenix. After their 14 point collapse in the 4th quarter in Detroit, look for them to lose another before righting the ship at home. This is their longest road trip of the season so far, and this one should be a comfortable win for a team that's good at home, and I give a distinct edge in coaching to Doug Collins over Alvin Gentry. A lot of people don't put much weight into coaching, but I think it makes a huge difference.
My third pick for the night is Warriors +6 hosting the Spurs. This was a tougher bet to make, for sure. However, Monta Ellis is clearly not that shaken up by his ankle and the Warriors offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. It's always tough to play on the road after a tough loss, and both of these picks fall into that category. Obviously, the Spurs are one of the 3 best teams in the NBA right now, but just remember the old cliche: "Good teams win, and bad teams cover!"
Warriors have won 4 straight a home, and their offense has been off the chains. They have really good energy at home and one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. I don't care if they are playing the '91 Bulls, you don't bet against a team that's getting 6 points at home and riding a 4 game home-winning streak.
That being said, I do think the Spurs will win this one. If the spread was 4, I would have passed, but 6 points is a bet I'm comfortable with. Of course, they could get blown out. I just don't see that happening with Golden State. I think San Antonio is going to start chilling out a little bit as well. They are smart enough to know that burning yourselves out in the regular season doesn't do you any good. Even though they want to win this one after getting smoked by NO, Golden State wants it worse, and they are fresher, didn't have to travel nearly as far, and they have more youth, and with George Hill banged up, they have deeper scoring right now.
OK. So I guess George Hill isn't that banged up. Anyway, 2-1. Ill take 2-1 every night out of the year. Moving on to tonight's action... Oh, those poor Cavaliers. Can't they get a break? The wizards really screwed them here. The Celtics, who won 5 straight at home before losing to the struggling Wiz away, are going to be looking to send a message coming back home and who better to come into town but this bunch of scrubs. It opened at 18, and now its 17 1/2 and I, as usual, grabbed the half point; although I really don't think I needed it. This game could, and hopefully gets ugly quick, but even if it doesn't, and Boston is only up 6 or 7 after 3, I think Boston pulls away in the 4th. Celtics -17. Still scouting the other games. I will check back in a few, possibly with another pick.
Something that I seriously think is way more key than most is coaching. Denver has a much better record than the pistons but you can throw that out when you factor in that the Piss have played well lately, amidst the Rip saga, and the fact that Denver has a hard time winning at the Palace, plus they played last night in Washington and Detroit had the night off. You take all that, consider it, but one thing that sticks out to me is that George Karl is a first-ballot hall of famer and John Kuester is a hack. The Pistons win a flashy game like Orlando but take a look at that record and tell me they're going to beat Denver tomorrow night. Stop.
Just sticking with this one game tonight. I have a feeling tonight is going to be one of those crazy full-moon nights in the NBA, one of those 0-3 or 1-4 on good picks; Spurs, Suns, Thunder even Denver are all unpredictable, so I gotta just stick with the Nuggets. Look for the old Mr. Big Shot to end the Denver drought in Detroit tonight. Last night Chaunc dropped 12 in the 1st; look for that in the 4th tonight. Close game, but Denver pulls away in the 4th.
Way to be Nuggets! 13-8-1. Man o man this is a really, really tough night to pick in the association. I am taking the Knicks +4 for a few reasons. First, I am going to stick with the coaching theme, and D'Antoni is going to have this team playing passionate ball tonight, and is going to have a plan to expose the Bosh-less heat. Believe me, I am not a big Bosh fan (I think the playoffs will expose him) but he is a great regular season player and he really helps their offense. I guess Lebron is going to be playing the 4 tonight, so look for him and Amare to both have big games and cancel each other out. Going back to the coaching, I truly believe that Carlos Arroyo gives them a better chance at winning at starting point guard than Mario Chalmers. It might be a good move in the long run, but look for a talented Felton to take advantage of Chalmers, making just his 3rd start of the year. He had one good game against a struggling Raptors team and he's been given the starting job. Finally, I don't like taking teams that are on the road that have had 3 or more days off. They usually will come out flat. I think there's value in the Knicks at +4 because its pretty obvious that this is going to be a close game.
Takin Portland +6. The blazers are a team that has been playing good basketball the last few weeks, without two key players (Roy and Camby) and still winning some big games. They don't need to win tonight, but that would be nice. Way to go KNICKS!
Orlando -1. I've been scouting all day, and this was the best value I could come up with. It's a really weird scenario, because Orlando smashed the bulls in Chicago earlier this year, but it was the old-look magic, so capping this game is really difficult. The bottom line is that with both teams completely healthy, IMO, magic are better. The bulls are not completely healthy. Rose is weak from the stomach ulcers and Noah is still out and he is a key energy, hustle type player that makes the necessary plays down the stretch. Orlando is much, much deeper, and it really would be strange if they lost this one, because of how important D Rose is to that team and he is definitely not 100 percent. That being said, a team is not one player and you don't win 16 of your last 18 home games by chance. This Chicago team is for real, but so are the magic and look for Stan Van Jeremy to rotate the bench the right way and I think he will out-duel Tommy T. as well. I'm laying huge on this game, let's f***ing do it Magic!
Miami -10. Ok. At some the pistons are going to get just annihilated, and tonight is the night. I am a Detroiter and have had the displeasure of witnessing more than my fair share of Piston games over the last few dismal years. I have also been on the wrong end of most of the bets I have made either for or against them this season. They cover a lot, and are not a good team to bet against (even though they suck), especially with the T-Mac experiment at starting point guard working as well as it has. That being said, Lebron owns the Pistons. Part of the reason that the NBA is so wack these days, is that guys aren't competitive like they used to be in the 80s and 90s. Its like the same thing with the cavs. They should have been playing hard and physical against the heat but they were laughing with lebron before the game, and all he does is disrespect them. Same situation here. Lebron embarrassed the Piss in one of the most lopsided playoff series' that i have ever seen jumping on the scorers table and proclaiming that it was his house, and since then, Lebron has not lost to them. There is no Dwayne Wade tonight, which ironically enough sealed the bet for me. Lebron is free to do what he has done for most of his career and that is torch the **** out of the Pistons, who by the way have no Stuckey, Wallace and Hamilton.
Ouch. Lakeshow -12.5. I love betting the Lakers when they are at home on friday nights. I don't think they will be looking past this one. This is the only bet I should have taken tonight, but I over-thought it. I feel good about this one though.
Ok. Atlanta +6 and over 191. The main determining factor for me taking this bet is that Atlanta has the same exact record as last year with most of the same faces. They have played pretty tight games in Dallas the last couple years. Need this one to bounce back!
Had to take a couple days off to re-group. Ok, I really like the over 210 in the Lakers/Rockets game. Sacramento seems like the pick of the night, and they should cover, however all it takes is for them to get down by ten at any point in that game, which probably will happen, and they get blown out. Or, Boston doesn't care and its close. Impossible to predict. However, the Lakers will play very loose after the tough game against Boston the other day and Houston will shoot well and look for this one to be around 222-224 easy. 15-13-1 overall, looking to make a run.
Nice bounce back. Doesn't hurt to get a little lucky to end a losing streak. Anyway, a win is a win. Im at 16-13-1 overall, and tonight's board looks ripe. Cavs at +6. There's a strange feeling in the air with the snowstorm, probably a full moon. There needs to be one for this team to cover, but they are at home and no one wants to be in ohio on a day like today. Look for the Pacers to come out really flat, and with some pressure b/c no one wants to lose to Cleveland right now. I think Cavs end the streak tonight, outright.
Well they didn't end the streak, but they still covered. 17-13-1; heatin up again.... Going to stay hot, but not with the Heat, with the Magic straight up. The magic burned me against Chicago, but not tonight. I just don't think the Heat are that good. Im not saying Orlando is the shit, because they clearly have some issues. I just think that their ability to hit 3s at any point makes them so tough to beat because no lead is insurmountable. With these two teams, anything can happen. However, I don't think it's a given that just because the big 3 are healthy, that they are better than Orlando. And with the maj at home, and people pounding the Heat, this is a no-brainer. I agree with SJ tho, from the standpoint of the refs wanting to keep the Heat in the limelight. However, Im predicting a close game with Lebron and Bosh missing some key shots down the stretch.
Forgot that its still the reg. season and there's no real pressure. Playoff time will tell a different tale. Anyway, been really busy but have a couple picks today. First, Heat/Clippers under 203. The Clippers are a team that (on the road) plays into the opponent's pace. The heat will want to slow this one down and will be successful in doing so. And how bout that Superbowl. Under Under Under. Took it a while back at 45 AND A HALF! Feels good to get that haffy! 31-14 is straight with me!
18-14-1. Had to cash out and pay some bills after that last win. Bucks -2 at home tonight. Jennings and crew healthy. Both teams played last night, givin the edge to the bucks.
Had to stay away from those games yesterday. I really like this next one. Hawks -4 visiting the Pistons tonight. Ok, this one warrants a write up. Atlanta is usually terrible at the Palace. This seems like a square pick. However, Atlanta's last loss there was without Joe Johnson, who will drop at least 25 tonight against an atrocious Piston d. Generally, I don't think that just because a team is playing in a back to back that they are going to be tired and get blown out. I just think that in this case thats whats going to happen. Atlanta is not going to take this game lightly. They lost their last 2 at home and had a day to prepare for this game and with JJ back I would be really surprised if they win this game by less than 6 points. Finally, its valentines day, and the pistons are hooking up with their gfs and wives at home right now, while the hawks are focused on winning this game. Watch the pistons come out really, really flat tonight.
Well they didnt come out flat but they sure finished flat. Pistons led by 15 with 7 left in the half and ended up being down 2 at halftime. I dont think they could do that again even if they tried. It was a low percentage bet but it payed off. 19-15-1.
Ok going for number 20 tonight. SweetJones had a great write-up today on his thread and it made me remember why I started betting sports in the first place. Being able to see a bet from a higher perspective is when you really can beat up the books. Sometimes you can lose confidence with a bad week or some bad luck but the golden rule is that you should never abandon the research needed to be successful at this difficult betting sport. I have only tailed two picks since I started posting, and I lost both. I felt the worst I had ever felt on those two losses, because I didnt feel like I had anything to do with the procedure, and I felt lost. However, after reading the brilliant write-up by SweetJones, and after seeing the over/under opener, I am confident in SJ and Golden State at-2. The Hornets are so random and thats what sucks about this bet but you know from that odd 201 opener that they are baiting the public in the over and they are basically conceding the fact that NO is going to suck tonight. If my bankroll was a little fatter I would take the under too but im just sticking with this one tonight.
20-15-1 since my first post and putting up an early play for tomorrow. Lakeshow -11 in CTown. Theres nothing really to write about. We all know whats been going on with the lakers. I won a lot of bets early on in the season betting LA (before I started posting here) and faded them after losing a couple, but I do know this team very well and they will have no problem winning this game by at least 17 points. Look for a good game from the Laker bench in this one; whenever this team struggles, the bench usually responds and helps out in a big way and hopefully thats the case later tonight.
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14-12-1 Overall. Let's bounce back...
