Timberwolves +3
3 units

When I first looked over this game, I capped it right at 3. But the reality is, there are so many intangibles involved in this game which I believe give us some serious value.

First, lets go back to the Houston game on Wednesday. With Roy out, Portland was going to one place, inside to Lamarcus Aldrige. Aldridge had a great game, but the difference tonight is he gets to bang against Kevin Love all night as opposed to Jordan Hill. This will put a greater reliance on Patty Mills and Wesley Matthews to hit from outside. I'd much rather make Patty Mills and Wesley Matthews beat me with 3's than get beat all night with high percentage shots from the paint.

Second, there are some serious splits to take into consideration for this game. The Blazers scoring margin is -5 on the road compared to home, while the T'Wolves split is +7 at home. Think that is worth more than the standard 3 points?

Third, This is a very poor situational spot for Portland. They fought their asses off to beat Houston with Brandon Roy on Wednesday, now they have the play the last game of their road trip in the frozen tundra before heading home to take on the Heat. No doubt in my mind Portland will not be completely focused on this game.

Lastly, this is a revenge spot for Minny. Sure, not a HUGE reverge spot because it's not like Minnesota can expect to beat a great majority of the teams in the league. That being said, it's a better situation than if they had actually beat the Blazers in Portland.

Minnesota is not good, but against the number, they are right in the middle at 18-18. I really like to try and find below average teams that still perform better than you would think against in the number. Tonight we have that, along with several other factor which I believe make this a solid play.

GL to everyone tonight.