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TNT Thursday
it is that time of the week boys! for our first match-up tonight, we have the Oklahoma City Thunders visiting the Dallas Mavericks.
it is no secret that the Mavs will be without their 2 best scorers tonight, and plus, the Thunders squad is out for revenge. Despite this, i am strongly leaning playing the Mavs tonight.
i see this game mostly as the Dallas defense and the OKC offense trying to outplay each other.
OKC's offense is nothing spectacular on the road. they are averaging 99.6 ppg when their opponents are surrendering 98.9 ppg. also, as seen in their recent outings against prolific defenses, OKC does not respond well to teams that play good defense. 60% of OKC's points will be away from the paint and with Dallas ranked 7th in shooting defense (opponent shooting %), OKC will not be as hot tonight. Not to mention OKC is ranked 29th in both 3pters made and 3pt %. i have OKC scoring around 93 tonight.
on to OKC's defense...haha. They give up on average 101.4 ppg when their opponents only average 99 ppg. they are ranked 23rd in opponent shooting %, which is in Dallas's advantage (67% of the Mavs' points are away from paint). Despite Dallas being last in the league in points in the paint, OKC lacks a legitimate big man in the middle. OKC is ranked 27th in opponent's points in the paint...
again, the Mavs' offense will be missing Dirk and Caron. Although their absence did hurt them in their first few games, the rest of the team are stepping up and filling in the gaps. Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Deshawn Stevenson have all seen increased minutes and are have the increased stats to show for it.
the Dallas offense is known to be better on the road and the stats agree with that. they only score 95.9 ppg when their opponents give up 98.4 ppg. However, i see their offense firing up better than average tonight against a subpar OKC defense. Dallas is ranked 5th in shooting %, so going against an OKC team that just can't seem to make defensive stops, the Mavs' shooting tonight should be solid. i have the Mavs scoring around 97 points tonight.
the Dallas defense is amongst the best in the league. they average surrendering only 91.9 ppg against opponents averaging 98.9 ppg. this will be the downfall of OKC tonight. Ranked 7th in opponents' shooting efficiency, the Thunders will have a hard time scoring against this tough Mavs defense.
There have been a lot of talk of how OKC will not lose 3 in a row. come on now, those were probably the ones that said Lakers will not lose 3 in a row...(the Lakers then went on to lose 4 in a row). the fact is that OKC have lost their last two road games. one can say that they may be even more motivated to win this one, but i can also say that they may just come into this game frustrated and down on morale.
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Originally Posted by Pick'nParlays
