[forloveofthegame]

I haven't been this sure of a pick all year. I am up over 20 units so far this season and this one of those spots to take a large stand on. This is what makes very profitable seasons

I have been doing research on this game since last night. Have not looked at any other game because this is THE game. Im 4-1-1 in games over 5 units and i am looking to add to the winning tonight. This pick is not based on whose on what or anything else other than the trends and numbers are on my side (as they usually are every play i make). This is a game you lay 10%+ of your bankroll on.

The game is San Antonio Spurs over Boston Celtics

There are many details I will get into later. I have not bought a line yet waiting to get +3. So if it takes buying the hook i will. When i make this play official I will include a very detailed writeup that will make you have no other choice but to tail

[mattmc419]

I was thinking about taking the Spurs too. They just got blown out and Popovich wasn't happy about it, so they should come out to play tonight. I'm not sure it's that much of a lock though.

Are you not going to take it if the line stays at +2?

[demens]

If you are so confident in the play why the hell does the hook matter? You should be taking the ML then. I guarantee you this, however wins this game will cover, hooks or lines will not matter what so ever here.

I dont see what makes this a good play. I put zero value in last years numbers and this year both teams are excellent teams and have similar results. I liked the Spurs initially but i think its a joke that people think Celtics are somehow incapable of winning a game without KG, here is where you should check their last years record.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Not to mention Kevin Garnett is out for the Celtics and the Spurs starters rested the last 3:00 of regulation last night versus the Knicks.

So fatigue shouldn't be much of a factor here. I put $22 on San Antonio as well.

[demens]

Not to mention Kevin Garnett is out for the Celtics and the Spurs starters rested the last 3:00 of regulation last night versus the Knicks.

So fatigue shouldn't be much of a factor here . I put $22 on San Antonio as well.

Bwahahahah

Yes, those 3 minutes made all the difference in the world. Oh my....

[tatddy]

You were pretty sure about those Hokies too...

[forloveofthegame]

If you are so confident in the play why the hell does the hook matter? You should be taking the ML then. I guarantee you this, however wins this game will cover, hooks or lines will not matter what so ever here.

Because having the three points protects me from any last second shot.

imo that is a huge number to have. Im looking at +2.5 with a tough decision if i should buy the half

[forloveofthegame]

You were pretty sure about those Hokies too...

completely different sport. any other sport besides nba is leisure. You dont see me with a college football thread. one play changed the game in the hokies play which is that dropped pick six. luck would have had two picks and with the momentum that would have been game. i won my units back on the live in game under of the osu game

Besides that was a 2 unit play doesnt compare to this play

[demens]

If you think there will be a last second shot that will decide the game then how the hell is this a game of the year for you? You've never been more sure and you still think a last second shot can kill you. Obviously you're not sure at all cause you think it will be a close game decided at the end.

[tatddy]

Thank you for proving that you continue to filter information to make your assertions look better. Go back and read our banter. The game went exactly as I said it would. If you wanna believe that vt lost cause of a play go ahead

[forloveofthegame]

If you think there will be a last second shot that will decide the game then how the hell is this a game of the year for you? You've never been more sure and you still think a last second shot can kill you. Obviously you're not sure at all cause you think it will be a close game decided at the end.

Your trying to fault me for getting the best line possible on a 800$ play?? I see spurs winning by 5-10 easy however refs in the nba down the stretch can be questionable in favor of the home team so it always pays to get the best line available.

Has nothing to do with my confidence or i wouldnt be betting

[forloveofthegame]

Thank you for proving that you continue to filter information to make your assertions look better. Go back and read our banter. The game went exactly as I said it would. If you wanna believe that vt lost cause of a play go ahead

congratulations you picked the winner.. why dont you go back in pacos thread and bash him also. he makes that pick my theory looks good. 1 td and 2 picks one for a touch. i dont even want to talk about it im past it and looking towards this play.

[demens]

Your trying to fault me for getting the best line possible on a 800$ play?? I see spurs winning by 5-10 easy however refs in the nba down the stretch can be questionable in favor of the home team so it always pays to get the best line available.

Has nothing to do with my confidence or i wouldnt be betting

No, you're right. Its obviously in your best interest to have the best line possible. Just think that if you wanna call something your play of the year and say you are more confident in it then any other game then 1/2 on the line should make no difference to you at all.

I dont know who will win tonight, but whoever it is will win by more then 3. I am very sure about that.

[mattmc419]

I personally decided that since this game could go either way - two great teams - I'm going to sit it out.

I'm rooting for the Spurs though. As a Pistons fan, I hope McDyess can get a ring. If anyone deserves a championship, it's him.

Plus there's just no way I could root for Boston if I'm not betting on them.

[Gee]

With you and the public on the spurs, catching more points from Vegas may actually be a curse. 2 to 2.5 already worries me - I agree with the spurs pick. Good luck!

[forloveofthegame]

Spurs +3 -112 8 units - Locked and Loaded
(Bought have point. juice is -102 at my book. will probably go up to three before tipoff..)

This game is a battle between the two best teams in their respective conferences. Both teams are battling with some issues. The Celtics are nowhere near 100%. They have been winning games without some of their key players but they have also been lesser opponents. And for the spurs, they had a very unimpressive yet uncharacteristic defensive struggle against the Knicks. So to say either one of these teams is coming into the game firing on all cylinders would be a lie.

What it comes down to who has the better team RIGHT now and who wants it the most. There is no denying the Celtics are going to put up their best fight at their home crowd. Ray Allen and PP have stepped up big when they need it most but I don’t see it being enough. What I see in the Spurs is a team that is upset with their performance last night, as was their coach and they are out for redemption to prove that they are the best team in the league and the other night was just a fluke.

Some key details to this game are..

Rondo - he has been coming back to form but with this being only his third game back. He will have his hands full with the lightning quick Tony Parker.

Duncan - with Garnett out who is going to step up and guard him? Baby is giving up 3-4 inches and the O’Neal’s will be severely mismatched. With the way the two pick up fouls it spells disaster for the Celtics. Who is there to back up?? Luke Harangody…


The key matchup is...

Dejuan Blair vs. Big Baby Davis

Blair is one of the more effective rebounders in the game. Statistically giving the time rebounding BETTER than Kevin Love. The Celtics coming off the Minnesota game where Love absolutely DOMINATED them on the glass is definitely a crucial area in this game. Big Baby grabbed ONE rebound! That’s unacceptable and he will have to do ALOT better than that if the Celtics want to keep up with the spurs.


Lets get to some trends..

• Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
• Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Spurs are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Spurs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

And for the Celtics..

· Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
· Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
· Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games.
· Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
· Celtics are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games



Nothing that jumps out at you but some key numbers here are the Spurs are 4-1 ATS last five games. While Celtics is 2-5 ATS last seven games. Also as shown the Celtics are a very poor team after a SU win. The Spurs are a rock solid team against good teams on the road and also following a SU loss. That says a lot about the character of a team right there.


Head to Head the trends are…

• Spurs are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings IN Boston.
• Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
• Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

All these favor the Spurs. Obviously you cant put too much into this as it was different situations at different times. But the coaching style doesn’t change much especially between two teams like these. So it is something you must take into account.

Overall, what makes this a large play to me is the situational factor that greatly favors the Spurs. With key injuries to the Celtics that will be exploded by a veteran team like the Spurs and also the fact that numbers back up that San Antonio has no problem bouncing back after a loss and playing on the road against a good team.

If the Celtics were at full force it would be two fairly even ball clubs but it is just not at this moment. I do see this game being a finals preview.

Hope this helps guys


and GO SPURS!!!

[Cuse4tw]

Good Luck buddy

[pacocn]

ftl i am on board, not as heavy tho

[pacocn]

ftl it is good to see this thread coming alive

[Fernburn74]

like i said lastnight about the arkansas play which was supose to b a lock!
and OHIO ST> no one gave a chance!!!! LOL OHIO ST won bet agaist public this is a money game and stats dont matter in this game!!!

64% spurs ml
75% spurs on spread


WOW easy one for me tonight BOSTON CELTICS WIN THIS GAME!!!! going with vegas again!!!!

[DeeWizzle]

Win or Iose, with 360 days Ieft I can assure you this is not the PIay of The Year!

[forloveofthegame]

like i said lastnight about the arkansas play which was supose to b a lock!
and OHIO ST> no one gave a chance!!!! LOL OHIO ST won bet agaist public this is a money game and stats dont matter in this game!!!

64% spurs ml
75% spurs on spread


WOW easy one for me tonight BOSTON CELTICS WIN THIS GAME!!!! going with vegas again!!!!

This is what i see from one of the most respected places...

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404302.html +2.5 55.31%
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404169.html -2.5 44.69%

[forloveofthegame]

Win or Iose, with 360 days Ieft I can assure you this is not the PIay of The Year!

NBA season to date dont mean 2011

[Landscaper]

Damn dont know what to think bout this game maybe I will throw a little on Spurs

[lyon804]

Your a good man fortheloveofthegame... You are getting some shit here from the peanut gallery. even more shit if it loses. No win situation posting your bets here, especailly larger ones. I hope you the best though. I personally have "mixed" feelings on the game. GL tonite.

[demens]

This is what i see from one of the most respected places...

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404302.html +2.5 55.31%
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/team404169.html -2.5 44.69%

Source? Covers? I hope you're joking if you consider them a respected place for bet %.

Spurs are very much a public play, confirmed by the pregame and sportsinsight, the most respected places for this kind of info imo. And it makes a lot of sense too, plenty of people think Boston is some joke without KG which is obviously not the case, and Spurs are a JM play which attracts a shit load of public bets.

Nice writeup though. Good luck.

[SportsTerminator]

In big games like this the home teams usually win and cover. That is unless your teams' name is the Lakers. I would say Celtics is the play, but never bet against John Morrsion...

[forloveofthegame]

Lyons- i feel ya man. ive worked up my winnings fairly well this season. if i lose i will still be here and will be the first one to congratulate those on Boston. Thanks for the support

demens - its has worked out very well for me all year. whether its very accurate is ones opinion

[demens]

Lyons- i feel ya man. ive worked up my winnings fairly well this season. if i lose i will still be here and will be the first one to congratulate those on Boston. Thanks for the support

demens - its has worked out very well for me all year. whether its very accurate is ones opinion

All their match-up info is great, def one of my favorite site to use. But for public bet % you gotta go with something else.

Spurs are a public play, a John Morrsion play whether you like it or not. Like i said, i do like the writeup, for me i wouldn't care whats public and whats not if i felt good about the bet so it really shouldn't matter, just know that the line movement is against you.

[lyon804]

[quote=forloveofthegame;8226273]Lyons- i feel ya man. ive worked up my winnings fairly well this season. if i lose i will still be here and will be the first one to congratulate those on Boston. Thanks for the support


Couldn't agree more. I am a shot taker myself when I am up. I am not a professional by any means therefore I am not trying to grind at 1% of my bankroll. I grind early on to get the ball rolling, but once I make profits I look for big time opportunities.

[Snowball]

some late line movement here.
all books which were -2.5 are now -3.

i'll follow the late LM and take boston at home

i just hope Shaq is treated ok by the officials.

[Avon Barksdale]

good luck

[Shark79]

If you are so confident in the play why the hell does the hook matter? You should be taking the ML then. I guarantee you this, however wins this game will cover, hooks or lines will not matter what so ever here. I dont see what makes this a good play. I put zero value in last years numbers and this year both teams are excellent teams and have similar results. I liked the Spurs initially but i think its a joke that people think Celtics are somehow incapable of winning a game without KG, here is where you should check their last years record.

I must agree to this post.

I believe that the only reason why the Spurs would win tonite was due to their poor performance last nite, it might of been done even on purpose to have enough energy for tonites game.

Anyway .. the OVER for me on this one. Enjoy the game.

GL to all.

[pacocn]

good luck ftl im with ya
and pulling for u i caught your
first big play bet too lets go 2 fer 2

[thunderingherd23]

this is a great matchup