[demens]

So what is better?

Avoid public plays with heavy favorites or ride winning streaks?

I understand that Orl has an inflated line here. Most people would agree they win here. Statistically you got a good shot at getting the cover if you pick the winner, but it gets worse the higher the line goes. A 5 (or less) point Fav covers about 90% of the time when they win. It drops to about 55% when the line is 9 or more. So sort of winning but not a very good long term bet imo.

But in this case you have a team playing out of their minds right now. I'm not a believer in this trade they made but i do believe Orl is like a train with no break rolling through everyone right now. After 2 slip ups, they are on a 5 game winning streaks, including impressive wins over Bos, SA and NYK, and blow outs on the scrub teams. Covered all 5 games.

In this one you got a GS team that i think will be deflated. They shot lights out at Mia, had like an 18 point lead in the 2nd half and that still wasn't enough. I think they feel like even if they play their best game of the year they will still lose. They already without Biedrins and Lee is doutfull for this game leaving Amudmonson and Epke Udoh to deal with Howard, not to mention Orl can completely out gun that GS team. Orl has an injury of their own in Bass. He has played really well and that will be an issue down the road but not now. Ryan Anderson is an inconsistent bench guy but he was very good as a starter early season last year when Lewis was suspended. The guy can shoot and plays well when given consistent minutes.

So, stay away or take the public team with an inflated line?

P.S.
I had a weird ass dream last night that Orl trade for Chris Anderson from the Nuggs? Wtf is that about, i'm not a fan of either of these teams not sure why that crept in my head.

[Pauulzcappin]

Obviously this trade made Orlando way better. The Arenas one especially.

I like the over.

[demens]

Yeah, Arenas is really tearing shit up with his 10ppg on 36% shooting.

[yassen28]

I like the over . Arenas has add depth and he will come better in a week or two .

[FindTheLock]

I am a magic fan and I wouldn't touch this line. If it were 7 or 7.5 I'd take Orlando without thinking. 10.5 is too much for a team that relies on jump shots to close out games. To determine the cover here you'd have to ask yourself if you think orlando will be shooting lights out tonight. Howard is not the closer either. He is usually on the bench when the magic break games opened and take huge leads. If I were to bet this game I would take the Warriors with the points, but without any confidence at all in the pick.

[Pauulzcappin]

If you think 10/5 and 39% from 3-pt coming off the bench is bad, you are a blatant idiot.

[demens]

I had about enough of your "insight", so you can go take a hike.

This message is hidden because Pauulzcappin is on your ignore list.

[Pauulzcappin]

[demens]

I am a magic fan and I wouldn't touch this line. If it were 7 or 7.5 I'd take Orlando without thinking. 10.5 is too much for a team that relies on jump shots to close out games. To determine the cover here you'd have to ask yourself if you think orlando will be shooting lights out tonight. Howard is not the closer either. He is usually on the bench when the magic break games opened and take huge leads. If I were to bet this game I would take the Warriors with the points, but without any confidence at all in the pick.

But they have been shooting lights out, thats my point. No, i dont think they will do that in every game, but i do think they have a good shot at doing it now because the team is riding a hot streak.

Their opponent doesn't exactly bring much to the table either. I see nothing in their favor from the match-ups perspective.

[FindTheLock]

But they have been shooting lights out, thats my point. No, i dont think they will do that in every game, but i do think they have a good shot at doing it now because the team is riding a hot streak.

Their opponent doesn't exactly bring much to the table either. I see nothing in their favor from the match-ups perspective.

I watch every magic game and have bet on the magic spread often during their hot streak. The first two games they played together I don't even take into consideration, because they flew them in over night and played two basketball games without even saying hello nice to meet you. The magic have improved drastically without carter and lewis, but I don't know if I would feel confident in the magic covering 6 in a row. It all depends on howard. If howard gets out of the way and doesn't turn the ball over, then Magic will likely win by 25. If Howard demands a lot of post up opportunities the warriors will keep the game under double digits because howard will turn it over. Howard is terrible on offense when he has to create his own shot, although he is getting better.

[demens]

Who can defend Howard on GS?

[FindTheLock]

Who can defend Howard on GS?

see this is the problem with that mentality. Anyone can defend Howard when howard is trying to create his own shot. Howard is an excellent rebounder and finisher at the rim, but if he has to dribble he turns the ball over A LOT. If van gundy does what I think he is going to do in this game, which is to post howard up with that kind of thinking. I imagine turnovers in the 20+ range which will make it difficult to cover 10+. Howard could have a great night, but in the last few games he has been the problem not the solution. He even said that himself. I think the magic would cover this spread easily if howard just sat on the bench for the 4 quarter.

[kidk]

so what is better?

Avoid public plays with heavy favorites or ride winning streaks?

I understand that orl has an inflated line here. Most people would agree they win here. Statistically you got a good shot at getting the cover if you pick the winner, but it gets worse the higher the line goes. A 5 (or less) point fav covers about 90% of the time when they win. It drops to about 55% when the line is 9 or more. So sort of winning but not a very good long term bet imo.

But in this case you have a team playing out of their minds right now. I'm not a believer in this trade they made but i do believe orl is like a train with no break rolling through everyone right now. After 2 slip ups, they are on a 5 game winning streaks, including impressive wins over bos, sa and nyk, and blow outs on the scrub teams. Covered all 5 games.

In this one you got a gs team that i think will be deflated. They shot lights out at mia, had like an 18 point lead in the 2nd half and that still wasn't enough. I think they feel like even if they play their best game of the year they will still lose. They already without biedrins and lee is doutfull for this game leaving amudmonson and epke udoh to deal with howard, not to mention orl can completely out gun that gs team. Orl has an injury of their own in bass. He has played really well and that will be an issue down the road but not now. Ryan anderson is an inconsistent bench guy but he was very good as a starter early season last year when lewis was suspended. The guy can shoot and plays well when given consistent minutes.

So, stay away or take the public team with an inflated line?

P.s.
I had a weird ass dream last night that orl trade for chris anderson from the nuggs? Wtf is that about, i'm not a fan of either of these teams not sure why that crept in my head.

take the over here !!!! This game might set a all time record in points scored !!!

[Avon Barksdale]

like Orlando and 1st half under.

[Avatars]

Who can defend Howard on GS?

don't have record on hand, but I think saw it during one of games - when Howard has huge stats, team is doing considerably worse. It was explained that in games where there is a single coverage on D-12, perimeter is covered very well and magic's 3point game is limited. So a question - what will be GS strategy make double teams on D-12? If so, I think there is a high chance of blow out....Also - do you think will it be high scoring game (210+ points) game? If teams will run&gun all game , better the chance for blow out.
I will stay away, do not like this kind of spread.If I would have to choose one of 2, I'd go with Miami which plays lesser opponent in Bobcats without G-Wallace.

[Avon Barksdale]

David Lee is out for this game so Orlando is going to have a huge rebounding advantage imo. and it's going to be a lot more difficult for Ellis to drive on Howard.

[Avatars]

like Orlando and 1st half under.

I like game under - I still see Gundy as a coach who wants defense first. In fact read an article - with small sample though, orlando is better in defense now than it was before

[demens]

I'm not taking any GS over this year. Shocking that people still have not caught on to their awful O/U record.

@FindTheLock surprised to hear you're so down on Howard. You really dont know what you have imo, he's not perfect but he is the NBAs best center. Against a team with NO center at all, i'd think you might wanna take advantage of the match-up. You just said the team closes out games with jump shots and you're not sure they can shoot lights out in your 1st post yet you think they are better off with Howard off the floor. Howard is what makes all those jump shots be wide open. Just cause he had a bad game and joked about being the problem, come on man. I'll trade you Brook Lopez for him if you want, he's awesome on offense.

[Avatars]

David Lee is out for this game so Orlando is going to have a huge rebounding advantage imo. and it's going to be a lot more difficult for Ellis to drive on Howard.

OK, now Orl -10.5 makes sense

[demens]

don't have record on hand, but I think saw it during one of games - when Howard has huge stats, team is doing considerably worse. It was explained that in games where there is a single coverage on D-12, perimeter is covered very well and magic's 3point game is limited. So a question - what will be GS strategy make double teams on D-12? If so, I think there is a high chance of blow out....Also - do you think will it be high scoring game (210+ points) game? If teams will run&gun all game , better the chance for blow out.
I will stay away, do not like this kind of spread.If I would have to choose one of 2, I'd go with Miami which plays lesser opponent in Bobcats without G-Wallace.

So answer the question, who will guard Howard on GS? Look at their roster to pick out 1 guy that could possible be able to keep him out of the post by himself.

I see A LOT of doubling in this game, A LOT!

[Avatars]

So answer the question, who will guard Howard on GS? Look at their roster to pick out 1 guy that could possible be able to keep him out of the post by himself.

I see A LOT of doubling in this game, A LOT!

then I like Orlando covering spread But not as much as miami covering their spread (Coach Paul& Bcats honeymoon is finished)

[FindTheLock]

I'm not taking any GS over this year. Shocking that people still have not caught on to their awful O/U record.

@FindTheLock surprised to hear you're so down on Howard. You really dont know what you have imo, he's not perfect but he is the NBAs best center. Against a team with NO center at all, i'd think you might wanna take advantage of the match-up. You just said the team closes out games with jump shots and you're not sure they can shoot lights out in your 1st post yet you think they are better off with Howard off the floor. Howard is what makes all those jump shots be wide open. Just cause he had a bad game and joked about being the problem, come on man. I'll trade you Brook Lopez for him if you want, he's awesome on offense.

See this is where stats lie to you. I am grateful to have Howard, but in the last few games he wasn't even on the floor when the magic made the runs they needed to cover those spreads. he had nothing to do with those shooters being opened because he was on the bench in the 4th Quarter. It can go a lot of different ways, but if you try to make a guy into something he isn't, like howard into an offensive go to guy, then your team will suffer in the 4th quarter. I watch the games and witness it time after time. Ask any magic fan. Howard is the most dominate on defense and grabbing rebounds. Howard is more like rodman or ben wallace than like Shaq. howard is very useful for what he is good at, but running the offense through him is not a good idea.

[demens]

Magic look completely out of it tonight.

[spargament]

demens, I didn't get a chance to cap this in time, but I don't think you can fault anyone that went Magic with the quality of the recent performances. It's weird, but I believe more in the idea of a team carrying momentum than the idea of letdown games, but hey, I guess that's why they play the game...

[FindTheLock]

shooters are off and they aren't even trying to play defense. I think they will still come close to covering the spread though. GS falls apart in the 2H regularly

[demens]

The part about not playing defense is whats bothering me. Still a lot of time though.

I agree btw, i believe in momentum more then let down spots.

[LLXC]

Took the over but ORL shooting has been bad, and they're being outrebounded by the Warriors...

[young chad]

Rushed and took the over here, not the under which I woulda took had I known David Lee was out...ah well!

[FindTheLock]

over is still in ok shape. what was it 211? Not anymore with all those missed three's. If they dropped those there was still hope

[young chad]

Yep 211...it is in OK shape but I dunno man, I really do hate taking bloated Overs from teams that are primarily jump shot teams, and GS's top rebounder being out...

[FindTheLock]

1H's in the NBA are like the pre-season, they don't mean anything. The 2H is where Legends are made! What a shooting performance! on fire and can't miss.

[demens]

Yeap, crazy game this basketball.

[FindTheLock]

If Howard shoots FT's like this in the playoffs we might have a legit shot! The magic are spread covering machines when they shoot like that in the 2H. amazing!