Happy 2011 year to everyone, as you might have seen, I've been making threads with my plays in last few days and with new year I'm making one thread for each sport, for easier tracking and searching picks purpose. GOOD LUCK!
Game: New Orleans Hornets at Washington Wizards (Sunday 1/2 1:00 CET)
These two teams are just UNDER machines lately and I see no reason why the trend won't continue, especially that game total line of 187 points ain't scary at all. The Wizards are 0-10 O/U in last ten games and it's mainly due to the trade, which slowed the team down. Ten straight lowscoring games says it all and actually it's difficult to expect lowly hosts offense to fare well against very tough Hornets defense, which is allowing just 92.4 points per game this season. Thanksfully to that defense Hornets were underish team as well, going 10-23 O/U this season as well. They've been generally defending well against Eastern teams, going 2-8 O/U against them in last ten and they allowed only 81 and 86 points to Celtics and Hawks respectively, who have got a lot better offenses than Wizards. Let add to that the fact both teams are b2b today after close games yesterday and slow pace is highly expected. Pick: 501/502 UNDER 187 points @ 1.909
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls (Sunday 1/2 1:00 CET)
Real no-brainer and Bulls are projected to win this one by about 18-20 points for me and my system. 21-10 SU team, who's in very good form is hosting one of the worst teams in whole NBA, who's yet to achieve double digit number of wins, being 8-24 SU so far. Bulls are 13-3 SU at home plus they're on three winning games streak and however Pistons, Bucks and Nets aren't worldbeaters, Cavs aren't either. Guests are 1-10-1 ATS in last twelve road games and they're 0-5 SU in last five games overall, so adding their injury list of Williams, Gibson and Varejao, it's a horrible spot for this team. Without these three, starting line-up will be worst in league surely. Bulls rock solid behind home crowd, so with shorthanded opponents, they won't let a backdoor cover. Easy win, no sweat and comfortable cover for Bulls in my eyes. Pick: 504 Chicago Bulls -13 @ 1.943
Game: Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (Sunday 1/2 02:30 CET)
Should be hell of a close game and however Spurs have the best record in the league and have proven that they're really great so far, they're still an overrated side for me, getting too much of a credit and at the end, they won't make too much of a damage in the play-offs. This is definitely a gut play because all sort of statistics have to show Spurs as favourites. Just think that Durant with Westbrook might kill opponents defense today plus Spurs have to have a letdown now, after beating Lakers and Mavericks. Thunder won against Hawks yesterday and although they're b2b, they're very young, so shouldn't be a big problem. Spurs are now team to beat and pressure is under them, so if not SU win, I think Thunder cover today. Pick: 509 Oklahoma City Thunder +7 @ 1.917
Game: Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets (Tuesday 1/4 03:00 CET)
I think that this season Nuggets are overestimated when playing with Carmelo Anthony because this team lacks team chemistry and motivation at some times, while Melo ain't in best form either. Nuggets have been very average of late, although won last three straight; before that streak they lost three consecutive and right now surely aren't a force in the West anymore. Their 12-18 ATS for the season exactly shows that public is giving them too much of a credit after good last seasons. What's more they're still without Harrington, who's got a thumb injury. On the other hand Rockets are good after very disappointing start of the season and actually I'm surprised they overcome huge record deficit and are now 16-17 SU. They've been also better against the spread than Nuggets, being 17-15 ATS. They're 6-2 SU in last eight games and however last one against depleted Blazers were a big disappointed, such a performance shouldn't happen again. I think that with both teams current form, these two are very similar in terms of quality, so with home-court advantage, I'd say this one is about -3 game. In this case, +7 line looks very good for me. Pick: 1 unit on 711 Houston Rockets +7 @ 1.990
Game: Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (Wednesday 1/5 01:30 CET)
This one is a big no-brainer and I really don't care if it's a public bet or not - it is supposed to be winner at the end. Heat are in great form of late, going 18-1 SU in last nineteen games, being 12-6 ATS in that span of time; they're making statements every game after disappointing start of the season and I really expect them to cruise past depleted opponent at home today. They've already won 88-78 against the Bucks this season, however it was on the road and opponents injury list wasn't that long. As for now they're missing Jennings, Delfino, Redd and Gooden, plus Mbah a Moute is slightly injured due to concussion and is probable. Bucks are generally playing under the expectations, especially that they were very solid last season; they're just 13-18 SU so far and 1-7 ATS in last eight games against East teams. Hosts are playing finally a good basketball, team chemistry is good and I really can't see anyone stopping both Wade and James in here. An easy, double digit win must happen in Florida. Pick: 1 unit on 502 Miami Heat -10 @ 2.010
Game: Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls (Wednesday 1/5 02:00 CET)
The Bulls failed to cover a big spread at home in last game and that's why they're getting lower credit today, while I expect them to win by double digit this time, so -8 spread looks very good. Bulls are playing a rock solid basketball and are a force in the East right now, having 22-10 SU record. Adding to that 18-13 ATS through the season and four straight wins of late, I don't see any chances for Raptors. There're also no chances to stop Derrick Rose in my opinion because guests defense is horrible and he'll do his penetrations all day long. What's more Raptors are in horrible spot, having huge roster troubles and being 1-5 SU over last six games. They've been horrible on defensive end and that's why they're expected to allow more than 100 points easily in here. When we see list of potential missing players, there's serious doubt about their quality today: Johnson, Bargnani and Bayless are probable; Calderon is questionable; Weems, Stojakovic and Evans are out. Of course first three will play today, however they aren't in best shape and normally weak defense will be even softer. Blowout should be the case in here, although I think that guests should put up their points, especially that in second half Bulls won't defend that hard, having already comfortable lead (I assume that) and Raptors are potent offensively, having 99.8 points per game. Take the Bulls and Over for this contest. Pick: 1 unit on 506 Chicago Bulls -8 @ 1.935 Pick: 1 unit on 505/506 Over 199 Points @ 2.000
Game: Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (Wednesday 1/5 02:00 CET)
This is a huge chance for Thunder to bounce back quickly after an embarrassing loss to Spurs by 27 points because Grizzlies are one of the most inconsistent teams in the whole league. Of course there's a big potential in this team, however they aren't playing the way they're expected all the time and are struggling against solid opponnents usually. That's first game after road trip and that's often a letdown spot, so adding they have just defeated Lakers, they might be overexcited still. They're just 15-19 SU so far and with their very average defense, I don't see much of a chance to stop Durant today. I'm simply going with the better team in here, which seems to be underrated due to Grizzlies latest win over current champions. Pick: 1 unit on 507 Oklahoma City Thunder -1 @ 1.952
Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks (Wednesday 1/5 02:30 CET)
The Mavericks are totally collapsed and depleted right now, so it's a must play for me, no matter the fact Blazers have got their own problems at the moment. Hosts are without Nowitzki and Butler for this game and I doubt they'll play a good game without them, especially that confidence is low now, after an information about Butler's surgery and that he's out for whole season. Mavs were really superior at one time, however without Dirk they're 1-3 SU and lost against Bucks and Raptors (the second one at home!). Blazers are faring quite good with Roy's injury, they won last two, against solid Jazz and Rockets, so I expect them to have their confidence boosted. Having them as 3 points underdogs, I'm definitely trying to fade Mavs with such a horrible spot. Pick: 1 unit on 509 Portland Trail Blazers +3 @ 1.981
Game: Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers (Thursday 1/6 01:00 CET)
The bookmakers are really overestimating the 76ers at the moment because however they've been a great against the spread material of late, they're still an average team, who's also without their best player, Iguodala, right now. There's no denying about hosts solid form of late but I'm not impressed by them that much, they've been just keeping the games close. They're in fact 2-5 SU in last seven games and lost last two in a row plus this one has got a letdown spot as it's first home game after huge, eight games road trip and they're without Iguodala once again. 76ers are generally not capable of blowing opponents off the court and this one is their second biggest spread of the season (once were -7.5 at home against Cavaliers)! Wizards might be 0-14 SU on the road, however there's a potential in the team, especially offensively and I expect them to improve a lot till the end of the season. Wall is explosive pointguard so with addition of Lewis and Young on perimeter plus solid frontcourt having Blatche with McGee, I don't rate them as a worse team than 76ers now. It's definitely the best spot to finally get a road win and they're very fired up to do that and they've already defeated 76ers this season, winning 116-114 after an overtime. This one should be a close game, so +7 is an exaggerration. Pick: 1 unit on 701 Washington Wizards +7 @ 1.909
Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (Thursday 1/6 04:30 CET)
Suns have always been a very good match-up for Lakers, so now as they've got the weakest line-up for years, I don't expect them to put up enough fight to have chances for the win. Lakers may be in struggling mode right now but it doesn't matter as they already bounced back yesterday in a huge win over Pistons AND are still very motivated for statement wins and boosting confidence. Suns are very average after the tread because however they improved defensively, they lost their explosiveness on the offensive end and seem to have no weapons at all against Lakers. Mediocre Lopez and Gortat on the frontcourt won't stand a chance against Bynum with Gasol. Nash might be still one of the best playmakers in the league but Carter and Pietrus are overrated, Hill is old and no matter the fact Bryant might not be scoring much, there're too many decent guys (Fisher, Barnes, Odom, Artest, Brown, Blake) on the guards/forwards positions to be stopped by Suns. -4 ain't a big spread, while Lakers will be eager to notch a win over better opponent than Pistons at home. Pick: 1 unit on 721 Los Angeles Lakers -4 @ 2.000
Game: Chicago Bulls at New Jersey Nets (Thursday 1/6 01:00 CET)
This is a b2b spot for the Bulls however I'm not afraid of this fact because they're 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS so far this season having no rest. What's more this team is really red-hot right now, having five consecutive wins and although opponents weren't difficult, they were very consistent in these games; it seems these guys are confident enough now, knowing they're one of the best East teams, to cruise past average opponents easily. These teams also just met six days ago and Bulls won by 9 points at home and now they've got Farmar and Murphy questionable today. There's a X-factor in Derrick Rose, who should have a very good game in here, facing quite a soft defensive team; he's already had solid game six days ago with 9 assists, 19 points and 7/7 free throws and I expect even improved numbers in here. The difference in quality is big in here (Bulls are 23-10 SU, while Nets are 9-25 SU) plus Nets are on five losses streak, including last one against Timberwolves by 15 points, so -4 spread is definitely too short for me. Pick: 1 unit on 705 Chicago Bulls -4 @ 1.909
Game: Charlotte Bobcats at Minnesota Timberwolves (Thursday 1/6 02:00 CET)
Timberwolves have been in really solid form as for their standards lately and it seems they overcome pathetic start of the season. In fact their 9-26 SU record still looks terrible but they've got only two wins less than Bobcats at the moment, who're 11-21 SU. What's more young and potent hosts team is 5-1 ATS in last six games and was capable of beating Hornets and Nets straight up at home in recent past. On the other hand it looks like new coach ain't improving Bobcats team, who's 2-6 SU over last eight games and new, more offensive approach, ain't working with generally defensive-minded line-up. Adding to that, they're 1-5 ATS in last six, I'm not thinking that -6 is high in here. Love and Beasley are in very solid form and Timberwolves are generally eager in every game because they're young, fresh and explosive. Bobcats were capable of beating Wolves just by 3 points at home this season however it was when Timberwolves were horrible. Pick: 1 unit on 714 Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ 1.935
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