Tough beat as I lose the Celtics first half bet by the hook on an And-1 coupled with a Doc Rviers technical foul with 20 seconds left in the half. Still Nate-Rob could have clinched it but missed a wide open three. Oh well, it came back around by getting lucky with the Thunder/Lakers under after I made a terrible drunken "hedge" bet and should have lost both. Anyways,
6-4 yesterday (+3.2u), 34-30-1 on the year, +8.8 units
No plays yet, although I plan on playing the Hornets 1st half once the line is available on Bodog. I think Atlanta will be sluggish after the OT win versus the Heat, and won't turn it on until the 2nd half. Al Horford and Marvin Williams will both be out as well. The Hornets were forced to come from behind against Memphis the other night, and hopefully learned their lesson and will come out strong here. They have been a resilient and defensive team all year, so I expect them to come out playing hard in this spot. Probably going to be a 3 unit play.
- the Pistons average 12 points less on the road than they do at home. The Nets score 2 points more and give up 4 points less when at home versus on the road. The Pistons only average 90 points on the road and New Jersey averages 94 at home, for a total of 184.
-The Pistons average scoring 12 more points per game at home and give up an average of 4 more on defense compared to road games. The Suns average scoring 1 more point on the road than and have the worst road defense in the league at 110ppg. The only thing that scares me here is the injury situation on the Pistons side with Villanueva hurt and Rip not playing. Ben Wallace being out should result in more points though.
-Pretty much just took this because the Warriors are a solid home team and home dogs are winning ATS at nearly a 55% clip this year. Don't really like this pick much right now after looking deeper into it, but I already locked it in. Feel free to fade. Then again I really liked the Pistons over the other night and it went under by over 50 points so who knows here. More to come later,
-Durant struggling a bit offensively (24-67 FG in last 3) against 2 bad defenses (Den, NYK). Hornets aren't too explosive and play excellent defense. Been hitting recently with 1H unders, see how this one goes.
Rockets (-1.5 1H) at T'Wolves - 1u
Houston bounces back after a tough matchup against Dwight Howard and Orlando. The Timberwolves feature a smaller lineup which benefits the Rockets who lack depth up front. I see the Rockets getting out to a fast start and taking a lead into the half.
-Clippers are without their #1 scoring option, Eric Gordon (yes, better than Blake). Mavs are also much more explosive at home and Dirk's conditioning is getting better with every game.
Cavs (+17) at Celtics / (under 197) - parlay - 1u to win 2.6
Note: I am decreasing my units profit by 4 units due to not including the juice in my first 40 losses.
3-3 yesterday (-0.4u), 51-45-1 on the year, +3.4 units
I was most confident is my early plays, had the line movement go my way, yet went 0-3. Kind of just played a couple of leans for fun before tipoff and went 3-0. Funny how that works. Anyways,
Rockets at Mavericks (over 204) -115 - 1.5u
-Rockets can fill it up and the Mavs play much higher scoring games at home. The number still might be a little high, but I'm confident that this will go over 204. Thinking something like the Mavs winning 110-102
Celtics (-4.5) at Blazers -110 - 2u
-Celtics will be playing some inspired ball with Perk back. Also I feel like the Blazers offense has overachieved all season and will be coming back down to earth. A bit afraid of the backdoor cover here as the Celts aren't great at holding big leads, but I think they play hard all the way through with this game being nationally televised.
Rockets have nothing tonight, they are gassed after 5 games in 7 days including b2b tonight. Not one of best bets tonight, hopefully Martin gets hot in the 2nd half or something and I can still hit on the over
Got killed yesterday as two double-digit 4th quarter leads lost straight up although I got lucky with the Wizards/Thunder OT to hit an over. Hopefully I'll be on the right side of these in the future,
2-4 yesterday (-7.2u), 55-50-1 on the year, -1.3 units
Combined 11-15 3PT FG in the first half is not likely to keep up. Plus action has slowed down after the 1st quarter, Philly realizes they have a better chance to win in a slower paced game.
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