In my last thread I wasn't using units on my picks and realized it was causing confusion amongst what I considered my top plays, so I'm just going to make a new thread and start using units. I thought it would be cleaner in a new thread.
In my previous thread my record was 25-12-1 (67.5%).
My plays will be rated from 1 to 5 units.
Official Play:
*** Chicago Bulls -2 / 3 UNITS ***
Taj Gibson didn't play today, but traveled with the team and said that he planned to play vs Washington. While he may not, the possibility that he will makes this play a little better looking than it already is.
For the Wizards, John Wall and Yi are definitely out. Rashard Lewis is expected to make his debut for Washington and play 20-30 minutes. Lewis will send Al Thornton back to the bench, but the truth is Thornton is probably as good, if not better at this point in the season, than Lewis.
Chicago is coming off of a giant win over Philadelphia and their players should be rested in this back-to-back having rested most of the starters in the 4th quarter.
Chicago is 8-4 ATS in road games this season and 10-6 ATS against poor defensive teams (99 PPG +).
Washington is coming off of a big win two days ago against Charlotte, who did not have Gerald Wallace and an injured Stephen Jackson, who scored only 13 points on 5-12 shooting.
The Wizards seem to be getting credit here because they are coming off of a big win and are 7-6 at home, while Chicago is only 6-6 on the road, but we have to remember that Chicago has been making lineup changes and injury substitutions all season. Only recently have the Bulls gotten their team together.
The Bulls come into this game having won 8 of their last 9 games, their only loss coming by 1 points against the Clippers. In that game Blake Griffin dominated the Bulls without Noah inside and Gibson getting injured early.
Washington relies on jump shooters like Nick Young, Al Thornton, Kirk Hinrich and the new addition Rashard Lewis to score their points. The Wizards big man Andray Blatche does not actually stay in the paint as often as you would think and shoots only 43% from the field. He is only averaging 7 rebounds per game despite being a 6-11 center because he is more comfortable away from the basket. To me this presents a good match up for Carlos Boozer, who is not a terrific post defender, but should be fine handling a player with the game that Blatche has.
Washington is going to have to adapt in this game to the style of Rashard Lewis and continue to evolve without Gilbert Arenas as their top scoring option. Nick Young will likely take this place and I like the Bulls options to defend him with Ronnie Brewer and Keith Bogans.
In the first game between these two teams this season, Chicago won by 7 points, but Arenas put up 30 points and Wall put up 16, combining for 46 points. I don't see Josh Howard and Lewis making up 46 points and having Boozer in this game and Chicago seemingly rolling now, I don't see a potential drop off in this situation.
Chicago wants to go into their Christmas game with New York on a win and I don't think Washington is a team in the position to upset them in Rashard Lewis' first game with the team.
Last edited by Avon Barksdale; 12-22-10 at 02:09 AM.
Both teams come into this game on a three game winning streak, but I don't think the Rockets are getting the credit they deserve. Houston started the season 5-12, but have quietly built a nice record in December going 8-3 with their only losses at Chicago in OT, at Milwaukee and at Oklahoma City, all of which are probably playoff teams.
The Clippers enter this game 5-6 in December, with three of those victories coming in their last three games against Detroit, Chicago by 1 and Minnesota. The Chicago game was the Bulls first without Noah and Gibson left after 9 minutes with an injury, allowing Blake Griffin to feast on them inside.
I think Houston is starting to click, remember they were a 42 win team last season, and is going to build on their month of December thus far. They have beaten Sacramento and Golden State on this three game road trip and will want to close it out with a win against the Clippers.
Houston has won 11 of the last 13 games against the Clippers in Los Angeles by an average of 11.6 points per game. Houston is 7-1 SU in their last 8 in LA, and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 in LA.
The favorite in this series is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meeting in Los Angeles. The road team is also 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these two teams. While I am getting this line even, some sports books have the Rockets as a one point favorite.
Houston is the league's third highest road scoring team at an average of 106 PPG, while the Clippers are the league's 6th lowest home scoring team at 96 per game. Houston has been averaging 110 points per game over their last six and I expect that Battier, Scola and Kyle Lowry will be able to do enough defensively to slow down the Clippers and come out with a win.
Typically I post lines early if they are out, but often lines aren't released or I am looking at a half/quarter play and can't. I will usually always have plays posted an hour or two before the first game though.
Yeah, I've seen a lot of people on the forum here on it. I believe the line is already -3/-3.5 in some places though, so if you are thinking about playing it you probably don't want to wait and risk it getting to -4/5.
Good analysis... on both games... I'll be honest I am somewhat reluctant to play the Rockets though, even though you are spot on for reasons why they SHOULD win... I watched both their last games, and the Clip's last game with the Wolves, allbeit for ONE game against a SHITTY team, looked like their are getting it together... It's something that may not apply at THIS moment... but for the future keep it in mind... While Houston just seems a little off... They Clearly are solid, and I believe they SHOULD also win tonight, but something about them seems like they lack... SOMETHING.... They got away making big shots in the Warrior game and clamping down... but there is a missing piece there somewhere... Again we'll see how things roll tonight, I do still like your selections...
Last edited by BetterBizness; 12-22-10 at 04:43 PM.
Yeah, I made it just a one unit play because you just never know with teams like these. I am anticipating a comfortable victory for Houston, but we'll see. Houston also has a significant coaching advantage in this game if that matters and I feel like the Rockets will be able to come out on top in all of the little things needed to win a game.
I don't really like either side in that game. San Antonio has a tendency to go over at home and Denver has a tendency to go under on the road. I'm also not sure how many points the line is adjusted for Carmelo being out as the last line for San Antonio / Phoenix was adjusted for the Suns not having Richardson and Turkoglu and it still went over by 15 points.
If I had a lean toward a total in a game it would be over in New York / Oklahoma City.
I am on Spurs +2.5 for 1 unit and +3 for 1 unit. I like it, but I don't know If I like it for any more than 2 units. I'll see if you make it a play as well, maybe I will add another unit or so.
The Spurs enter this game on a ten game win streak facing the Orlando Magic who have lost eight of their last nine games. Over this span Orlando has only scored over 100 points once and are now facing one of the league's most efficient and high scoring teams who are averaging over 105 PPG on the road.
The Magic's new acquisitions Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu need time adapting to the system of Stan Van Gundy, along with the minutes and rotations that Van Gundy has decided to go forward with. Van Gundy is also struggling to adapt to the loss of center Marcin Gortat. The Magic are now forced to play the undersized Brandon Bass at the center position, significantly reducing their defensive prowess when Dwight Howard heads to the bench. This could present a real problem against such an efficient offensive group as the Spurs.
Orlando is 4-6 SU against the West this season, having beaten the Clippers, Timberwolves, Suns and Grizzlies, all of which are sub .500 teams. The Magic's six losses have come against Utah twice, Dallas, San Antonio, Portland, and Denver - all of which are Western Conference playoff teams.
San Antonio is 5-0 ATS as an underdog, 7-2 ATS in road games, 6-1 ATS vs the East, and 9-2 ATS against .500 or better teams.
The Magic are 3-8 ATS against .500 or better teams, 5-9 ATS against teams averaging more than 99 PPG, 2-5 ATS revenging loss vs an opponent, and 0-7 ATS coming off of an upset loss as a favorite.
San Antonio has been an underdog by more than 2 points only twice this season 0 -once on the road at Oklahoma City and once at Utah. The lines in both of these games were +2.5 for San Antonio and in both games the Spurs won by double digits.
At the moment, Orlando is struggling as a team and is in the process of developing chemistry between the teams new players. The Magic have struggled to score with any consistency as of late and will have pressure put on them in this game knowing that they face one of the NBA's most potent offenses. There has also been rumblings that Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard aren't exactly seeing eye-to-eye and the team is becoming frustrated with some of Van Gundy's decision making and we see why Orlando has been in such a rut as in December.
San Antonio enters this game with the best record in the league, great chemistry and the strongest team the Spurs have fielded since their 2007 championship season . I do not expect a let down from the Spurs heading into their Christmas break and expect San Antonio to come into this game setting a tempo that will be difficult for Orlando to match.
The Spurs +3 are the play.
Last edited by Avon Barksdale; 12-23-10 at 04:18 AM.
I was leaning spurs but shit man, i thought about it twice and it can be a game where the magic just light it up behind the arc. I think ima play maybe like .5units on the spurs.
I have noticed that when there are only a few plays on the card for a sport like the NBA or NHL, bodog won't have a line posted for games that they think their gonna get drained on. There is a reason they don't have a line posted for this game yet. Maybe their afraid of magic bets? I doubt it, probably scared of the public money being thrown at the spurs right now. just a thought...
*** San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic Over 198 / 1 UNIT ***
I have already gone over much of the information needed above in my Spurs play, but I will go over some of the over/under facts here.
San Antonio has scored over 100 points in 20 games this season. They average 107 PPG and 105 PPG on the road. The Spurs have gone over 100 in 8 of their last 10, with the two games they didn't go over 100 being against the two worst offensive teams in the league, Milwaukee and Portland, where neither team was able to score more than 90 points.
The Spurs are 4-1 in O/U as an underdog, 5-3 O/U against the East, and have gone over in their last four games. Seven of the last ten games between Orlando and San Antonio have gone over, including their last four games against each other.
I am expecting Orlando to score a bit more than they have been in their past few games here having their new team being together for 2 games now and a history of games going over between these two teams, as well as San Antonio being only a middle of the road defense giving up 98 PPG on the road.
The first game between these two earlier this season went over by 7 points with a 106-97 San Antonio victory and I see a very similar score in this game.
San Antonio's scores in back to backs have gone up in the second game in every game this season. Against Oklahoma City they won 117-104, against Cleveland they won 116-92, and against Denver they won 113-112.
As I mentioned, Richardson, Turkoglu and Arenas are not exactly defensive oriented players and are more offensively focused, which should make this game even more open for San Antonio and allow Orlando to have the opportunity to score a few more points coming off of a 99 point total against a very good Dallas defense.
Arenas and Richardson have not been effective thus far for Orlando and I expect them to at least have a little better go at it offensively in this game and the Magic needing to play catch up to the high powered Spurs offense.
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