[Avon Barksdale]

Honestly I tried to look at that game and didn't have a clue. Sacramento seems to be able to build up leads against sub par teams, but then manages to lose in the end. Milwaukee looked very good against Los Angeles without Jennings, but got destroyed by Portland the game prior without him. Basically the difference was that Earl Boykins had 6 points in 23minutes vs Portland, but managed to put up 22 on the Lakers in 25 minutes.

When the game can basically come down to whether the likes of Earl Boykins, Ersan Ilyasova or Luc Mbah a Moute can score 20 points it's too much of a gamble for me.

If I had to pick a side I would go with Sacramento getting points at home, but I have no real strong lean to either team.

[sharp13]

very good stuff avon. i really like SA too, even put a unit on their ML.

what do u think about MIA(-6.5)? i feel hot/cold on it, like either they will crush or no-show. but i kinda like it, because i think they will really want to go into xmas vs LAL playing well. your thoughts?

[Avon Barksdale]

I like Miami to win, not sure about 6 or 7 points on the road though. Both Pietrus and Vince Carter are out so obviously that won't help Phoenix having Jared Dudley and Grant Hill guard LBJ and DWade.

LeBron for his career has averaged 35PPG vs Phoenix and Wade has averaged 31PPG vs Phoenix so it will be very difficult for them to slow both Wade and James down. Phoenix's strength is also their perimeter shooting ability and Miami has the best perimeter defense in the league with Wade and LeBron. The Heat's weakness defensively is interior play and Phoenix doesn't have the players that can really take advantage of that.

I think Miami will either blow them out or it will be a close game because Miami is looking ahead to the Lakers.

[STC]

On Spurs +3 as well, let's do this

[GTS925]

Good luck on your plays! I'm on Spurs too, my bookie gave me +6.5!

Can I get your opinion on PHX+9.5 and SAC+7.

[ParlayKing]

Good luck on your plays! I'm on Spurs too, my bookie gave me +6.5!

Can I get your opinion on PHX+9.5 and SAC+7.

scroll up.

[Avon Barksdale]

I've offered my opinion on both games. Good luck.

[ParlayKing]

what ya think of miami over 53.5 points first half, seems like a very solid bet imo.

[YOUNGBUCK]

avon wat u think tyreke evans over 22 1/2 pts and assists

[MartR]

What do you think the chances are of all away teams winning today?

[Avon Barksdale]

Sorry I was out. I like the Evans prop since Earl Boykins will play 20+ minutes and he's a 5'5 PG.

[Avon Barksdale]

what ya think of miami over 53.5 points first half, seems like a very solid bet imo.

Seems solid to me. Only worry would be that Miami seems to start slow then pick it up in the second half.

[pstaff1989]

Spurs 2H?

The shot % has got to come down for Orlando and Spurs should rise to 49, 50% ish at least

There at -2 and are such a good 2H team

[Avon Barksdale]

Spurs are 8-1-1 ATS on the road covering 2H lines, Magic are 6-6 ATS at home covering 2nd half lines.

[pstaff1989]

Thanks. I got on them for 2x @ -1.5 (-118)

[ParlayKing]

The spurs in the first half out rebounded and had more 2nd chance looks than the magic, they just need to start dropping more shots in the 2nd half..

[Avon Barksdale]

Spurs looked cooked in this game - Letting Orlando shoot a ridiculous 65% / 50% from three.

[ParlayKing]

yep it would take a miracle for them to come back and cover this number. onto the next one.. the over looks healthy atleast!

[pstaff1989]

such a beat down. I feel like a fool

[Avon Barksdale]

The over looks good. San Antonio would have to make some sort of effort to play defense in the 4th to have any chance at a comeback and that seems unlikely.

[ParlayKing]

It is what it is man.. you cant win em all. we got beat by the fast break points, the spurs just couldnt keep up.

[ParlayKing]

The over looks good. San Antonio would have to make some sort of effort to play defense in the 4th to have any chance at a comeback and that seems unlikely.

41-20 4th qt?

[Avon Barksdale]

Spurs get blown out allowing Orlando to shoot lights out, but manage to cover the over easily.

1-1 on the day

Thread record: 3-1 (+3 UNITS)

Combined Thread Record: 28-13-1

[Avon Barksdale]

I don't have time for a write up, but I liked the line now:

Official Play:

*** Miami Heat -4.5 / 1 UNIT ***

Line dropped without D Wade, but I like the Heat to win and LeBron to run this game like the old Cavs with Bosh.

[Avon Barksdale]

Does anyone know a book that has Christmas lines out yet?

[Avon Barksdale]

Miami covers easily. Sorry to those of you who were unable to see my play before tip off, but I actually liked it more with Wade out because you knew LeBron was going to go off against Phoenix.

Today's Record: 2-1
Thread Record: 4-1 (+4 UNITS)
Combined Thread Record: 29-13-1 (69%)

[Avon Barksdale]

..and if anyone cares, I've been posting my Bowl plays here:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...wl-thread.html

I'm 5-2 thus far, but by no means am I saying follow me or claim to be any sort of expert in the area.

[GTS925]

Chi@ nyk -2.5
bos @ orl +0.5
mia @ lal -3.5
den@ okc -6.5

[Avon Barksdale]

Thanks.

I am unsure if I will have time to post plays for tomorrow or not.

If I do, I do not expect to include a lengthy write up, but I'll see how my time manages.

[Avon Barksdale]

*** Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic under 192 / 1 UNIT ***

[Avon Barksdale]

*** Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks under 205 / 1 UNIT ***

[Avon Barksdale]

*** Boston Celtics +2.5 / 2 UNITS ***

[Avon Barksdale]

*** Miami Heat +5 / 3 UNITS ***

[pstaff1989]

any chance you could throw me a reason or two to take the heat. I really want to take them, I just love some of your insights for reassurance


Merry Christmas

[Avon Barksdale]

Basically I think this game means a lot more to Miami than the Lakers. LeBron has a history of playing very good on Christmas. Miami has still won 13 of their last 14 with their only loss by 2 against the best team in the league, Dallas. Miami beat Los Angeles three years in a row from 2004-2006 on Christmas including Shaq's first game back in LA and Miami won. The Miami bench has actually been getting better with Chalmers and Jones along with improved play from Arroyo and Mike Miller will now have been back for a week.

Los Angeles has played the easiest schedule in the league this season thus far and actually has a worse record vs playoff teams than Miami does. Kobe has actually been pretty shaky since news broke that he hurt his pinky a few games ago including an ejection from his last game where Milwaukee blew LA out.

I also think the Miami coach may really want to win this game after Phil spoke out against him and the Heat earlier this season. As I mentioned, this game game just means a lot more to Miami than Los Angeles.

Miami is 6-1 ATS after allowing less than 85 the previous game, 10-5 ATS following a 10+ point victory, and since we are basically straight up with this line, Miami is 8-3 following a non conference game, 8-0 after allowing less than 85 the previous game, 14-2 after winning by 10+ the previous game, and 7-5 vs winning teams.

Also remember that Wade may have a little extra in his step this game having had an extra few days of rest.

Los Angeles is 5-8 ATS at home, 2-5 ATS following an upset loss as a favorite, 6-9 ATS versus good offensive teams (99+ ppg), 0-1 ATS on 3 days rest and 14-15 ATS as a favorite.

My real reason for Miami in this game is that LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Spoelstra really want this one and to Los Angeles it's just another game. Kobe has played on Christmas more than anyone and Phil Jackson has coached on Christmas more than anyone. I don't think either of them are particularly fond of it and to them it's just another game.