Hello out there. Love to bet/talk betting so I figured I'd start a thread. A couple of disclaimers first, though:
1. I am an amateur in every sense of the word. Don't expect sweetjones or paulszcappin returns if I win my first few.
2. Although I am a novice, I take this seriously. I want to win money and I want you to win money. F#@! the books.
3. Even though I put this on the NBA thread page, I'll be looking at NFL, NCAAB, NHL and NBA.
4. I post the exact plays I'm doing for the night so there will be teasers ans straight bets.
5. Let's have fun. I'll take a verbal beatdown as well as the next guy, but lets keep it capping-related.
So hear are my first official plays (for those of you that decide to pay any attention to this, I will do write-up's but I'm in a rush so I can't do them today.
Sorry for the sloppy first post; I was literally being called into work as I was typing. I probably should have just waited until tomorrow to start this thread, but I digress. All plays are worth one unit unless otherwise specified. I get my lines from a local book in Philly, sorry for any inconvenience. I'll always do write-ups. Let's make money.
RESULTS FROM MONDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2010
NBA:
UTAH -6.5 *WIN*
NFL Teaser:
CHICAGO +.5, UNDER 41 "LOSS*
Didn't see Chicago going off like this, but no worries, big basketball and hockey night tomorrow.
Dallas is an absolute beast this year away from American Airlines Arena, the true definition of Road Warriors going on a vicious 9-1 ATS tear. Their victims were no slouches, with wins reeled off against Western Conference powerhouses such as San Antonio, Denver and Utah. To get them at 10.5 here is just an absolute gift, so I feel I should explain the UNDER decision.
To the naked eye, the OVER may seem like the wiser play. At home, Orlando is 6-6-1, while Dallas is a respectable 6-4. But 197 is too high and here are some numbers to show why.
In Orlando's case, they are 11-16 overall against this number, with a 6-7 mark at home. Dwight Howard is the only modicum of consistency this team has right now, as they are in flux after the big trade. Against Western Conference teams, Orlando is 5-4 against this number, but with such a titanic change, I don't see how they're going to score much against a tenacious Dallas squad.
For the Mavs, they are 9-15-2 against 197 points overall, 4-5-1 on the road. They pushed on this number at home against Phoenix, went under tonight against Miami in the Battle of the NBA's Two Hottest Teams. I expect that downward trend in points to continue with a deep, disciplined Mavericks team that is giving up only 93.2 PPG and both teams off tough back to backs.
I don't think I have to justify Dallas getting points against this Orlando Magical Mystery Team, especially double figures and especially since we all know how easy Dallas has made road work look.
RESULTS FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 21
NBA Teaser:
DALLAS +10.5, UNDER 197 *LOSS*
Crappy start, but I think this Wednesday card will get me on the right track.
{YTD 1-2, -2U**
TUESDAY DECEMBER 22 OFFICIAL PLAYS
NBA:
UTAH -6
My reasoning is fairly simple here: the Jazz are a good team and they beat bad teams by a lot of points. The one win that I've posted so far was the Jazz -6 at Cleveland on Monday night and they won by 11. Here are their previous 8 results against sub .500 teams:
NOV. 17 vs. New Jersey 98-88 *WIN*
NOV. 22 vs. Sacramento 94-83 *WIN*
NOV. 28 @ LA Clippers 109-97 *WIN*
NOV. 29 vs. Milwaukee 109-88 *WIN*
DEC. 1 vs. Indiana 110-88 *WIN*
DEC. 13 vs. Golden State 108-95 *WIN*
DEC. 18 @ Milwaukee 95-86 *WIN*
DEC. 20 @ Cleveland 101-90 *WIN*
Only one game in single digits and I expect that to continue against a very young and not very good Minnesota team. Utah's the play here.
NBA:
CHICAGO -2.5
Chicago is a top 5 team in the East with one of the top 5 point guards in the NBA. They pounded the Sixers tonight and they'll do the same to an even worse Wizards team. Their last 8 against -.500 teams:
NOV. 27 @ Sacramento 96-85 *WIN*
DEC. 4 vs Houston *118-115* WIN
DEC. 8 @ Cleveland 88-83 *WIN*
DEC. 11 vs Minnesota 113-82 *WIN*
DEC. 13 vs. Indiana 92-73 *WIN*
DEC. 15 @ Toronto 110-93 *WIN*
DEC. 18 vs. LA Clippers 100-99 *LOSS*
DEC. 21 vs. Philly 121-76 *WIN*
Not quite as impressive as Utah, but their play of late and the day-to-day uncertainty of John Wall's status make this an easy 2.5 to lay, even on the road.
NHL:
FLORIDA @ PITTSBURGH UNDER 5.5
Pittsburgh is 6-11-1 this year at home, while this lousy Florida bunch has gone just 4-14 on the road against the total. After kicking the crap out of the NHL leading, but daydreaming Flyers, Florida will revert to its anti-scoring self. Michael Frolik and Stephen Weiss are their two leading scorers.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is licking their wounds from a streak-breaking loss to the Orange and Black and a beatdown from the increasingly irrelevant New Yawkers (they came back to beat Phoenix 6-1 Monday), and will take advantage of a weaponless Florida as their final opponent before the break and win a disciplined 3-0 hockey game.
Well, I've given no reason for anyone to follow my plays or care what I think is going to happen, but I'm snowed in in the Northeast, bored and liking my plays for this evening. So, just to let everyone know, I'm 2-4 on plays that I've posted.
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