I'm going to start posting my plays on this web site instead of the one I was using previously. I normally pick at a high percentage, but won't post my past records here since I am unknown.
December 16 Plays:
New Jersey Nets - Washington Wizards U193
Boston Celtics 1Q -2
I don't explain my picks, but I do evaluate the games and statistics and make educated decisions. I am always happy to answer any questions concerning my picks if I see it before game time.
Utah was badly off today. Obviously they aren't as bad as they looked. Most of the Utah starters only played 25-30 minutes because they were getting blown out. Utah is 9-1 ATS against the East, 7-3 ATS against teams with losing records, 6-3 ATS as underdogs and 7-3 ATS on the road.
Milwaukee is 5-8 ATS against winning teams, 5-8 ATS against good offensive teams (99+ PPG), 3-9 ATS vs the West, 0-5 ATS against Northwest division teams 3-4 ATS on 2-days rest, and 5-8 ATS as a favorite.
Utah has lost only once to an Eastern conference team this year, the Heat and also beat the Heat earlier in the year. They have beaten Orlando (once at home, once on the road), Miami, Charlotte, and Atlanta all on the road. They have also beaten New Jersey and Indiana and Milwaukee by 21 in Utah.
John Salmons will be questionable and not himself either way. Utah has the bigs inside to match up with Bogut (Al Jefferson, Kirilenko, Fesenko) and will have Okur off the bench. Utah also matches up well with Brandon Jennings with Deron Williams, but Milwaukee doesn't have the players defensively to stop Millsap and Williams and Bogut should have to use a lot of energy on defense defending Jefferson.
Utah has not lost two consecutive games all year and I don't see them doing it now vs a sub par Milwaukee team.
I also have leans tomorrow to New York Knicks 1H, Portland Trail Blazers 1H, Denver Nuggets 1H and possibly a quarter play, but I will have to see what the lines are.
I like that write up, and appreciate it. My only concern is that the Bucks have been playing much better ball the last 5 games. They lost to San An by 2, beat Dallas, Houston, and Indiana. They kept it respectable vs. The Heat, but Jazz were fired up after that loss last night
Looks like Bucks 1Q might have great value. any thoughts?
Milwaukee is my possible 1Q play depending on the line. Utah is pretty bad in the first quarter. My concern is they were beaten so bad tonight they come out angry tomorrow.
Utah Jazz +2
New York Knicks -4.5
Milwaukee Bucks 1Q -.5
New York Knicks 1H -2.5
Portland Trail Blazers 1H -2.5
Orlando Magic - Philadelphia 76ers Under 190
how you feeling about that bucks 1q play? i'm really looking into it but I can decide if I should pull the trigger. although bucks are playing with revenge from last time these teams met
Even though I think Utah will win, Milwaukee is coming in rested and should get off to a good start. They are the 5th best home 1st quarter team in the league with an average 4.7 lead after the first and Utah is the 3rd worst road 1st quarter team at -5.8 per first. The 10.5 difference there is too much of a gap to not make a play on -.5 in my opinion.
Milwaukee averages 26.6 PPG in the 1st quarter at home and Utah is last in the league in road 1Q scoring at 19.8 PPG. Milwaukee is 5th in the league in opponent 1Q scoring at home allowing only 22 PPG, while Utah is allowing 25.6 PPG in the 1st on the road.
Utah Jazz +2
New York Knicks -4.5
Milwaukee Bucks 1Q -.5
New York Knicks 1H -2.5
Portland Trail Blazers 1H -2.5
Orlando Magic - Philadelphia 76ers Under 190
Washington Wizards - Miami Heat Under 195
The Trail Blazers are 8-2-1 ATS at home on 1st half lines and GS is 4-10 ATS on road 1st half lines, so that's a possibility.
The under games are probably worth looking at since Washington will be without Arenas, Wall, Yi and maybe Blatche and the Heat are coming off a pretty tiring game yesterday vs New York. Then we know Orlando will be way shorthanded tonight and Philly is coming off of a game yesterday so might be a little tired. I could see scoring down in both games.
They were up 6 and let them score an and-1 to push it to 3, then New York didn't score on their last shot. Unlucky and sucks you couldn't get -2.5, but at least it's not a loss. Should've had that one for sure. I like them to stretch the lead in the 2H.
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goodluck!
Originally Posted by pstaff1989
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