[pstaff1989]

nice start. I had LA 1Q unfortunately

[Avon Barksdale]

I don't like playing Lakers in quarters unless it is a meaningful game because of Phil Jackson's substitution patterns.

[pstaff1989]

I am starting to see what you mean. I have lost 3 consecutive 1Q laker bets, I think I should have learned my lesson by now lol

[Avon Barksdale]

Yeah he will sometimes rest Kobe for 5 minutes in the 1st or put in Luke Walton, etc. He doesn't really have any set patterns for how he substitutes so it is hard to bet on their quarters unless the game means something, maybe like on Christmas vs Miami.

[LostBankroll]

Ay bra, any input on Hornets ML in the 1st Half at -150?

[Avon Barksdale]

no play for me. detroit is rolling out a new starting lineup that has been their most effective this season with a +21 advantage. if i were to recommend anything i'd say detroit 1h +3 / 2.5, but again, not worth a play for me with neither team having much of an advantage on the lines in my opinion.

[LostBankroll]

Good looks on that mane!

[Avon Barksdale]

news just came that stuckey is out, so not sure how that sways things but he is the pistons leading scorer

[Avon Barksdale]

My Hornets/Pistons o182.5 may get killed with the late scratches from Detroit, but I think it still has a chance.

[Krazymojo]

oh -6 1h still good?

[Avon Barksdale]

The Thunder look like they came into this expecting to roll over the short handed Suns and are playing terrible.

[Avon Barksdale]

Oklahoma City is pretty much garbage. They can't beat Phoenix with basically 7 or 8 guys when they are full strength and at home.

[Avon Barksdale]

Hey guys,

I went 4-2 today, both of my losses coming in the Oklahoma City disaster.

This brings me to 17-6-1 overall for a 74% rate.

I'll have more plays for tomorrow in a bit.

[Avon Barksdale]

My leans for tomorrow are Dallas +7, Portland 1H and Orlando 1Q.

[pstaff1989]

what about the revenge from miami after that tough loss in dallas last time? or is 7 points too many to give to a good dallas team

[Avon Barksdale]

I think 7 points is too much. Dallas is the better team and I wouldn't be surprised if they won. Their bench is much better than Miami's and Dallas is a very good road team. If Miami wins I think it will be a close victory, not a double digit one.

[kman27]

I hope the public keep pounding that miami line so it jumps to +7.5.

[pstaff1989]

dude, OKC blew today!!! wtf was that about? I think they snuck into my kush stash

[Avon Barksdale]

no idea, they play terrible defense and let phoenix shoot a ridiculous 57%. it's pretty bad when you let grant hill score 30 and robin lopez score 19.

[Avon Barksdale]

My top play will be Portland depending on the line.

[Postman78]

I think 7 points is too much. Dallas is the better team and I wouldn't be surprised if they won. Their bench is much better than Miami's and Dallas is a very good road team. If Miami wins I think it will be a close victory, not a double digit one.

plus dal has won in mia last 6 in a row 9 of 10 plus like you said they got the better bench and as long as they keep up with them defensively i agree they could win it outright and end that 12 game winning streak

[pstaff1989]

My top play will be Portland depending on the line.

full game? how many units are ya thinking? not to get too personal or w.e

[Avon Barksdale]

full game? how many units are ya thinking? not to get too personal or w.e

Probably 1H since Portland has a very good home 1H ATS record and Milwaukee road 1H ATS not so much. Need to check on Portland's injury status tomorrow for full read on the play, but it will be some type of play.

Milwaukee will be without Jennings and Maggette.

Using my 5 unit scale example I would rate this as a 4 unit play, but again, I will need to check injury status because Pryzbilla, Camby and Batum are all questionable at the moment and one of those centers will be needed for Bogut.

[pstaff1989]

Thanks man, I will check back for tomorrows plays

[Avon Barksdale]

i am starting to like to over 191 in mavs game as well, but plays will be posted tomorrow before first game starts. probably 3 to 5 plays.

[kman27]

Just a heads up, im pretty sure that over is gonna jump up. Public is pounding that line right now pretty hard.

[Avon Barksdale]

i already made a play on it. it will be one of my plays tomorrow.

so if anyone wants to jump on the line before it goes up when i post my official plays, MAVS/HEAT OVER 191 is a play.

[Timofey]

Hey Hype, don't you think it will be a defensive matchup?

[kman27]

Hey Hype, don't you think it will be a defensive matchup?

Dont wanna take over thread but im just smoking and checking out some scores. Miami has given up 90+ point in the Last 3, 2 of them being Cleveland and Washington. Mavericks scored 100 12 outta 13. Miami wants to run up and down and honestly...the mavericks can too. I been watching some mavericks basketball and they love running. Their bench is extremely deep especially at the C position. Dirk playing the 5 can be a HUGE mismatch for the heat. Joel anthony did a fair job against amare(props) but dirk will simply shoot over him all day. They can try and double team Dirk but trying to recover on defense, especially the caliber of shooters dallas has, its gonna take a toll on the players forcing to play the bench and there is where dallas can break it open.

Mavericks over, Maverick +points and small bet on ML.

[Avon Barksdale]

it would seem that way, but the dallas defense has slipped as their offense has strengthened lately. in particular allowing portland and milwaukee, the two worst offensive teams in the league, to put up 103 and 98 points. i see at least one of these teams scoring over 100 in this game and maybe both, and i dont see either team being held to under 91 (would mean a 10+ pt victory most likely), so i think the total will be something like a 103-97 score.

[Avon Barksdale]

miami is so strong on defense because lebron and wade are so good defending the perimeter, but dallas legitimately has someone who can score at every position and kidd hangs out by the 3 point line waiting for dishes from pentration.

my main argument for this is that the dallas bench and role players will put up a lot of points against miami's bench players and the miami big 3, along with the dallas key players are both very good transitional players and are efficient scoring.

in the last game the dallas bench/role players combined for 48 points and the miami bench combined for 20. dirk, butler and chandler combined for 59 points, while lebron, wade and bosh combined for 67.

all three of the miami big 3 had over 22 last game, so really if miami wants to change the outcome of this game they will need their role players to step up.

also factor in that last game vs miami dirk shot 9 for 23 (56% on the season) and terry shot 3 for 12 (46% on season). you would figure both of them would improve this game on their efficiency.

[Avon Barksdale]

..and when talking about Dallas +7, without getting into all of the other numbers that I have already evaluated, but not going to get into at the moment, you can think of it this way:

Lebron, Wade and Bosh will basically have to outscore Dirk, Butler and Chandler by 20+ (probably more like 25-30) to make up for the difference in bench/role player points between the two teams and that would be just to be about even.

[pstaff1989]

you're like a surgeon the way you dissect these games.


I have a long ways to go, i'm only 4 months into this

[Nitro3]

JUst jumped on the MAVS/HEAT OVER. looking forward to your other plays today.

Keep up the good work!

[Avon Barksdale]