1. #1
    ATS Quants
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    12/15/10

    Lots of potential activity lined up for Wednesday (will mostly be looking in the 2H).

    Playing overnight:
    BOS -3.0
    Not buying the Knicks hype against a rested Celtics squad. Knicks have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the league according to my numbers (untested in my opinion). I think the line should be closer to -6, but Vegas knows they will have plenty of NYK action. Only a 1 unit play, but really stands out to me.

    Waiting:
    I need Houston to show +5.0 or more (off the board currently) to take them on the ML. They had a nice win against Sacramento, so we'll probably see this open closer to +3.5-4.0; will likely need some OKC action to push it higher. Admittedly, my dog money lines have been horrendous this year; dragging down my bankroll this season by more than 13 units. I am trying my hardest not to jump ship on them completely...however, I know that variance can be crazy sometimes.

    Portland ML will be a play tomorrow unless for some reason the line drops to below +5.0 or lower (highly unlikely).

    Keeping an eye on Sacramento tomorrow. Expect the line to open +10 at the VERY lowest...if it sits near +10 all day, I might take a stab at the big ML payout. Anything higher (I really expect NOH -13.0) and no play for me.

    Also, last tidbit of info...that Miami line looks a bit crazy at -17.0, but I actually have it capped at -21.0 (and that doesn't account for the LeBron revenge factor).

    Good luck...will check back with these plays I am watching tomorrow afternoon and also post my power ratings for 12/15 later.

  2. #2
    ATS Quants
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    Hmmm, seeing Houston line at +8.0, didn't think I would be that far off, but hey, if they want to give me extra value, I will take it. Will post the ML play when they are released tomorrow morning.

  3. #3
    brahmabull117
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    I'm surprised you are not looking at Philly - 5



    IMO, that's the best play of the day. Clippers are 0-10 on the road with many of those games being blowout losses...76ers have won all of their recent home games vs bad teams by 10+ points. That's a terrific line to take a stab at

  4. #4
    ATS Quants
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    Brahmabull117-

    I actually have Philly capped at -8.5 vs the Clips tomorrow, the only thing is, I don't like playing home favorites. Good luck to you!

  5. #5
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by ATS Quants View Post
    the only thing is, I don't like playing home favorites. Good luck to you!

    even on just a 5 point line??

    that's nothing more than a close win + some free throws at the end

  6. #6
    ATS Quants
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    The number itself means little to nothing for me. In general, home favs are what the average bettor is going to play. I try to exploit this by finding good value on away dog money lines. The public also seems to like playing home dogs, so I will try to find value in a road fav (Boston tonight).

  7. #7
    ATS Quants
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    Glad I got Boston at one possession (-3) rather than 2 (-4 now). Just FYI...according to my numbers, I would play this up to Boston -10 (I told you, it really stands out).

    Additional plays:
    HOU ML [+330] x1.25u

    POR ML [+235]

    Still waiting:
    SAC line opened +10, right where I wanted it, but will wait to see where it goes from there. Tyreke Evans is out.

    Charlotte ML has entered the radar (line moved higher with Gerald Wallace injury). Will probably wait till closer to tip-off for this one also.

  8. #8
    ATS Quants
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    Power Ratings for 12/15

    ATL 0.60
    BOS 8.41
    CHA -2.61
    CHI 4.28
    CLE -8.02
    DAL 5.73
    DEN 4.32
    DET -5.53
    GSW -3.66
    HOU 0.19
    IND 1.96
    LAC -4.49
    LAL 3.57
    MEM -0.97
    MIA 8.25
    MIL 0.73
    MIN -6.56
    NJN -4.10
    NOH 2.98
    NYK -1.43
    OKC 1.87
    ORL 2.84
    PHI -0.39
    PHO 0.03
    POR 0.99
    SAC -9.48
    SAS 6.98
    TOR -2.41
    UTA 4.73
    WAS -7.38

  9. #9
    ATS Quants
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    Adding:

    CHA ML [+375] x1.25u

  10. #10
    jram68
    tell obama to keep his change
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    im on the lakers as well

  11. #11
    ATS Quants
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    SAC ML [+475] x1.25u

  12. #12
    ATS Quants
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    Chi/tor u97.5 2h

  13. #13
    ATS Quants
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    MIN/PHO U109.5 x2.00u

  14. #14
    ATS Quants
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    This meltdown by Sac is killing me!!!

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