My NBA Picks Round 1.

[H1Cypher]

Disappointed with myself yesterday. Should have went 0-1... or maybe 1-0.... or maybe even 1-1. That Philly Cleveland pick was too out of left field even for me. The Love pick I'm fine with.

Nothing for today play I really liked was Dwight Howard points + rebounds under 37 -140 but because of the juice decided not to put it up as either an official or unofficial play.

So nothing for today as of now.

Was not only the juice. Dwight hasn't' hit the total often but the Knicks having a weak front court with Stoudemire being out also played a part in the decision for it to be a no play.

[H1Cypher]

Missed 2 situational overs yesterday cause I was taking it easy. Carmelo and Love. 2 teams suffering alot of injuries- with 1 all nba player still in the lineup.... great situational overs and I missed it both of them. Both went over of course. Those are the overs I really like. That and big time players in big time games.

Howard also went under.

Not as many games today so it will be harder to find a prop I like.

Will try to get in a live in play post also. These 2 games today have potential to be alot more competitive than the games on national tv recently.... so maybe not. Just depends on the defense being played- and how free flowing the game is.

Games that are defensive and offensive in spurts I rarely have enough time to place my bet + post the pick before the commercial break. Free flowing games are more of a no brainer.

[H1Cypher]

Glad I took the day off. Day before yesterday was disappointed I took the day off. Today I am happy I took the day off. I wanted so bad to play the Kobe Bryant prop also. I see Kobe just about buried anyone that played it. It was the right play for anyone that made the over bet but Kobe has been a huge disappointment to me this year.

Apologies for not posting any live in play bets though I doubt anyone would have been reading my thread on time to see them.

First half of the Miami Dallas game is exactly the kind of start you want to see for those no brainer first half bets I've been making and winning with. Scroll back a couple pages in my thread an you'll see exactly what I mean.

The Laker OKC game had alot of ebs and flows wouldn't have been able to post anything I really liked in that game- as far as 'no brainer' type of bets are concerned.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop: David Lee points over 21.5 -110

Statistical play for these reasons:
3-2 in his last 5
7-3 in his last 10
10-7 in the month of march
7-4 since the monta ellis trade
had 12 and 11 against the nets earlier in the year where he put up only 11 shots. that night ellis had 20 shots.
nets are the 2nd to last worse 2 point % defensive team in the league. their average is 50% allowed through out the season.
lee is pretty much one of the few constant contributors mark jackson has so he is more likely to get minutes.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 18-12 Units not tracked.

Oops copy pasted the wrong record from the last page this is the actual record:
Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 19-14 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

Plays that were also up for consideration were: Luol Deng points under 15.5, Dirk Nowitzki rebounds + asissts under 9.5, and Greg Monroe points under 16 if anyone wants to do some research of their own.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop: David Lee points over 21.5 -110

Nice David Lee hits his total at Half Time. 22 points for Mr. Lee at half. 1-0 today bringing Leans/Unofficial Plays to 20-14.Out of the 4 props I considered pre game I went 3-1 jus' sayin'.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 20-14 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

I felt like yesterday could have been a huge day. I get these feelings once a week I shit anyone reading this not. These days where I feel like I can make a boatload- I'm sure many of you havve had them. To me it literally happens once a week. I use to be aggressive when I first started sports betting on days like this- and now I stay conservative with my bets but I still keep track of evevrything. For example yesterday... this is what I had on the docket- did not bet all but kept track of everything.

I tail some people- but when they release multiple picks a day I am usually not sure which to tail and don't want to go out on a limb tailing too many people.

Detroit Pistons +11.5- Billyuni- Loser
Greg Monroe points under- winner- Me
Philly and Washington under 185.5 - winner- LTA
Wizards at Halftime- team total over 41.5- winner- me
Pittsburgh -7- Brandon Lang fade- Loser
luol deng points under- loser- me
David Lee points - over - winnner - Me
Dirk rebounds + assists under- winner- Me
Orlando Magic -2 first quarter- winner- me
Orlando Magic -3 first half- winner- me
Orlando Magic -6 live in play- loser- me(this was right before the mega run orlando went on and stayed huge -10+ for most of game- yes im psychic)
Clippers pick em first half- winner- Me
Clippers +4.5 first half- winner- Me
Clippers -1.5 2nd quarter- loser- Me
Clippers team total over 41 first half- Winner- Me
Orlando Magic +1.5 for 3rd quarter- Loser- Me
Orlando Magic / Dallas over 52 for 3rd quarter- Loser- Me
Dallas Mavs over 94.5 - Winner- Me
Dallas over 93.5 - winner - me
dallas/orlando over 193.50 winner- me
dallas -150 for game- winner- me
portland la under 45.5 1st quarter- winner- me
clippers over 26.5 3rd quarter- winner- me
blazers team total over 87.5- winner- me ( this was before blazers took the lead- yes im psychic)
clippers -8 for game(this was right before they took the lead and were -13 for the game before halftime)- loser- me
Blazers team total over 92- winner- me
blazers team total over 93. winner- me
blazers team total over 93.5- winner- me
blazers clippers over 192- winner- me
clippers +165 for game- winner- me
Orlando magic to score 30 points first vs Dallas pre game -175- winner- me
Forgot this one- celtics -1 pregame- winner- me

The ability to change my mind during a game is what allows me to do this type of stuff at least once a week. No exagerations- and sometimes it happens more than once a week. Pretty sick how good I am getting at this, almost to the point of disbelief(where I can't even believe my own results)

[Laissez Faire]

nice my man...looking forward to seeing your selections for today's games

[H1Cypher]

nice my man...looking forward to seeing your selections for today's games

I will be trying to stick to just 1 pick a day. In my personal experience if I go to someones thread- and they have 3 picks. Am I suppose to tail all 3?

I guess I probably should tail all the picks- every day. That is the right way to do it. I just can't bring myself to tail 1 person on multiple plays a day, even when I know this is probably the right way to do it.

So I'll likely be posting 1 pick a day to avoid any of those 0-2 days from now on. But you never know just depends on how much I like the props that day.

[Laissez Faire]

I will be trying to stick to just 1 pick a day. In my personal experience if I go to someones thread- and they have 3 picks. Am I suppose to tail all 3?

I guess I probably should tail all the picks- every day. That is the right way to do it. I just can't bring myself to tail 1 person on multiple plays a day, even when I know this is probably the right way to do it.

So I'll likely be posting 1 pick a day to avoid any of those 0-2 days from now on. But you never know just depends on how much I like the props that day.

understood my man...well i'm looking forward to your 1 play a day haha

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Andre Igudola Points Under 12 points -105

Some relevant stats

against atlanta he is 0-2 this season with this total of 12

8 - 5 under this total in back to back games this season

cons to this total:
12 points is not difficult to achieve
I have a perception that the Hawks can give up on a game at any moment and with a total of 12 I don't think that is good.

neutral stats:
average 10.1 shots per game

Also considererd Louis Williams under 14.5 because he was 13.5 at las vegas books. I don't live in vegas though couldn't play over 13.5. Was almost a no play day for me, hopefully Iggy can have 11 points and make it 9-5 this season on back to backs.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 20-14 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Andre Igudola Points Under 12 points -105

12 points at halftime. Glad I posted this 4 minutes before tip. Leans go 0-1 today bringing the record to 20-15.


Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 20-14 Units not tracked.

Funny cause I had a feeling I might end up making 2 picks today if I lost the first one. I already had Chris Paul points under 19.5 in mind may put it up later or not will see.

[H1Cypher]

Official Basketball Bet: La Clippers First Quarter -2 -110 to win: .5 units

Clippers come out strong in first quarters. After nearly losing yesterday I think they come out strong today against a dangerous Jazz team.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 16-10 +4.885 units
Total for the thread: 28-11. +9.41 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 20-14 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

Official Basketball Bet: La Clippers First Quarter -2 -110 to win: .5 units

Clippers come out strong in first quarters. After nearly losing yesterday I think they come out strong today against a dangerous Jazz team.

38-22 Clippers win the first Official plays go 1-0 today bringing that part of the record to 17-10, 29-11.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 20-15 Units not tracked.

[Laissez Faire]

i was on clippers 1st qt last night as well

[H1Cypher]

i was on clippers 1st qt last night as well

Yeah it's been cashing alot. I think I'm 5-1 playing the Clips in the first quarter, not all in this thread of/c.

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop: Kevin Love over 27 points -140 Timberwolves at Portland

Juice on love isn't going to change with the Timberwolves needing a win and Rubio out. Even if Pekovic is back in the lineup I don't think it will effect Loves scoring much. Portland has been allowing more points lately and I think this will continue with Hickson or either Pryzbilla guarding Love. The juice is definitely a hefty price though.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 20-15 Units not tracked.

Definitely consider fading if a player prop run begins =p. I'll prolly end playing 2 games today.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 48.5 for 2nd Half vs Orlando Magic -110

[H1Cypher]

Lol is anyone watching this pre game. Kobe Bryant points over 27.5 early in the day at +105 I was thinking of taking it. As I'm watching the pre game there is a Kobe special- I check the odds for Kobe at 5dimes. -125... I check 5 minutes later -150. lol wonder if the pre game had anything to do with it.

Denver team total was a winner. Looked like an easy winner at 6 minutes, lucky. While the rest were sweating out some other total Denvers was the first to hit.

Edit: don't wanna double post. wow so many odd people bet these player props. major movement on courtney lee the entire day +150 at some point over 14.5 points. I wanted to bite at +120 but decided not to... sure enough he has 20 points. Grrr.... i should just listen to myself in situations like this, gotta learn to do that more often.

[H1Cypher]

Man Kobes prop is still bouncing around from +145 on the under -175 on the over back down to -150. Before that it went down to -130 again for a couple minutes then back up again. Now it's at -150 and +120. All in the last 15 minutes during the pre game.

Started the day at +105 at 5dimes. Kobe points prop thats when I was thinking of going with it but thought I could find better.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Player Prop: Kevin Love over 27 points -140 Timberwolves at Portland

Love finishes with 26 points. 2nd half was annoying only 2 shots taken in the 3rd.

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 48.5 for 2nd Half vs Orlando Magic -110

Love had 18 points at halftime. In the 3rd quarter he took 2 shots and had 2 points. What the hell, this is what you call unlucky. This was an easy choice just like the Nuggets were a not a difficult decision at -110. There was an eternity left for Love to score minimum of 9 points. 1 good result and 1 bad result. Leans/Unofficial Plays go 1-1 bringing that record to 26-16.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-16 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

Hitting a dry spell this week where I am basically around 50% still 64% over 77 picks. Just a couple shots fall my way and I'm hitting almost 68% over 77 picks.... and lately my wins are just clearing early. Wish I was having better results this week. 1.5 points cost me 2 wins, and both times I considered arbing out.

[Laissez Faire]

Hitting a dry spell this week where I am basically around 50% still 64% over 77 picks. Just a couple shots fall my way and I'm hitting almost 68% over 77 picks.... and lately my wins are just clearing early. Wish I was having better results this week. 1.5 points cost me 2 wins, and both times I considered arbing out.

it's all good my man...today is the start of a new week

[H1Cypher]

it's all good my man...today is the start of a new week

Yep hopefully it'll I'll hit at a more pleasant clip.

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 1st Half vs LA Clippers -105

It'll be a close game but I think at some point Dallas will be able to distance themselves a bit going into halftime.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-16 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

For some reason I'm having second thoughts about this. I could see myself losing by the hook or just losing could be tie game. Stats favor the Mavs for halftime at their house though.

[H1Cypher]

Leans/Unofficial Plays: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 1st Half vs LA Clippers -105

That was something like a plane crash. Clippers came out focused, Mavericks came out not able to make shots looked very bad early, shoulda stuck to the gut it's been serving me well. 0-1 Leans/Unofficial Plays to 21-17. In the past 3 months there seems to be a trend in this thread, especially with the Unofficial Plays Every time I go on a run I go on a bad streak after it seems.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-17 Units not tracked.

[H1Cypher]

Going to add a new category to my thread. I'm going to call it "Cold Plays". Basically they are plays I'm just going to toss out there, and most of them I myself won't be playing.

Some of them may have been plays I considered, plays that would have been made if it wasn't for injury, circumstances which I may have changed my mind for any reason, and lets me just throw as many picks at something as I like to see how it goes.

Going to track the units also just from the start, make every bet a flat bet to win 1 unit.

Cold Play: Lakers -3 1st quarter vs Nets -110

I just bet against the Lakers the other day when I took Golden State +6 for the first half. Warriors are actually a solid first half road team though, especially in the first quarter. Nets are last only above the Bobcats in 1st quarter point differential. This goes into cold plays because Bynum is injured and this should effect the Lakers negatively. If nets can take advantage of LA not having a shot blocker in the paint they can hang with a Lakers team that doesn't' seem to be blowing out their opponents recently.
Nothing I really like for this card.

Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-17 Units not tracked.
Cold Plays: 0-0
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Indiana Pacers -2.5 -115 for 3rd Quarter vs NY Knicks
New york is actually one of the worse scoring teams in the 3rd quarter and is in the bottom 5 in 3rd quarter point differential this season. Might be a wash with Stoudemire and Lin out and Knicks shooting pretty hot. I am not even watching this game just read the play by play and boxscore before putting this up so it's definitely a Cold Play Spur of the moment kinda like a cold call and I won't be playing it myself just wanna keep track.

[H1Cypher]

Also Indiana is in the #2 in 3rd quarter scoring overall(better on the road), but +4.2 3rd quarter differential in the 3rd quarter at home for the season. And the line is moving in my favor it is now -125.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: Lakers -3 1st quarter vs Nets -110

Lakers came out strong and covered. As the day progressed odds moved from -110 to -115 to -120. So I beat em by a full -10. I'm gonna have to go back and see how much I've made betting on or against the Lakers, the Clippers, and OKC... I seem to be on track with these 3 teams more than others.

Cold Play: Indiana Pacers -2.5 -115 for 3rd Quarter vs NY Knicks

Stats never tell the whole story. I figured for the Pacers to stand a chance they would wanna win the 3rd anyway no big deal. It's funny though cause Knicks are the first ranked 4th quarter* scoring team in the NBA but they had a collapse with a major lead still lost the game and the Pacers got the original cover of -5.5. Not uncommon though. Nice come back happy the Pacers pulled it off.

I have plans for this Cold Play category. I'm hoping to either do 1 of 3 things with it: hit it only 40% winners or below and make it a nice fade list, hit at a high percentage 55% or better, and if it happens to only hit at 50% track units and see how far a labby would go. Alot of games for the playoffs will give me another category to add picks to. A thread within a thread .


Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-17 Units not tracked.
Cold Plays: 1-1 Profit: -0.15 units Fade Profit: -0.10 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Lol the Knicks they are tied with the Blazers in 4th quarter scoring cause of that 4th quarter with the Pacers. Tied with Portland both averaging 24.9 overall.

[H1Cypher]

Cold Play: San Antonio Spurs -1 -102

I'm keeping Cold play record totally separate from my other 2 plays. This is a cold play simply because Lang is on the Celtics. I'll have a cold play of my own, and there are 2 live in play games I'm gonna try and get something in after a quarter.


If you're watching the ESPN games today I'd like to point out in live in play for most of the year OKC are the type of team that can jack up a total during a game and still come through for you more often than not. Heat are the type of team that can come out early in these games- always raise the total in live in play but a lot of the time in these nationally televised games it'll always Peak with the Heat- then eventually drop back down closer to the original total. Opposite with the Thunder- they raise the score and cash the check on the over almost every time in live in play. I've bet almost every game live in play this year nationally televised.


Official Thread Record:
Props: 12-6 +4.525units Basketball Bets: 17-10 +5.385 units
Total for the thread: 29-11. +9.91 units
Leans/Unofficial Plays: 21-17 Units not tracked.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Cold Plays: 1-1 Profit: -0.15 units Fade Profit: -0.10 units
*Not betting the Cold Plays just tracking them. I look at a lot of bet possibilities while I hunt for Official plays and I wanna keep track of more plays in this thread so i have this category to do it in.

[H1Cypher]

Not always, Heat sometimes come out slow also... but some point will have a scoring burst the Heat... and the eventual 4th quarter come down. Also- the Heat play hard defense at the end of a 4th quarter. Where some teams won't care and will just score and let you score- like GSW or even the Lakers.

Heat bench take pride in their defense and even garbage time play defense. Which will often make it easier for the total to drop as the game progresses. Remembering how each team closes out games is important in live in play.

This is all in relation to live in play tendences I've noticed and consistantly been cashing with when these teams play or avoiding spots and not betting.

[Speedy88]

Nice thread, first time I've dropped in. Great to see someone doing games and props. I just started warming up to prop bets. Prop bets can be very successful if you pick out the right ones. I've been riding Gortat, David Lee, and DeMarcus Cousins prop bets for the past week and making nice money off them.

Good luck with your plays.

[H1Cypher]

Nice thread, first time I've dropped in. Great to see someone doing games and props. I just started warming up to prop bets. Prop bets can be very successful if you pick out the right ones. I've been riding Gortat, David Lee, and DeMarcus Cousins prop bets for the past week and making nice money off them.

Good luck with your plays.

Yep lines adjust fast. You can find alot of value. There is alot less 'sharp' money involved. You only have to bet on 1 player. And you can ride runs. So many of the props that I've played have hit consecutively. I imagine a really good fantasy player would make a really good player prop bettor?

The Monroe prop I played- hit 3 times after for 4 unders until 5dimes took it down- lol.

Lee prop has hit like 3 or 4+ consecutively now itself also. There was a point when Bynum had cashed like 5+ consecutive times- wish I had played just 1 of those.

Iguodola just went over 2 times in a row(I had the under the first time). Players can get into slumps and have hot weeks and months you just have to watch for it. I know the bookmakers do when they set the props.

5dimes has some sharp player props sometimes I wonder if there is anywhere with some softer lines- seem to be consistent through out.

Good luck to you also.

[Speedy88]

Going to be riding Aldridge OVER prop bets as well when the spots look right. That team depends so much on him. For them to have any chance he has to score ATLEAST 20+ points a game.