[Deep_Rest]

Ok. Well this is my first thread. In this thread, I will explain some angles that I see. I will try and not bore you with statistics that you can find in any other thread. Background information: the NFL paid for a year of college thanks to being a 60%er. Relatively new to NBA. Not a serious gambler, but hey, you can't win if you don't bet!

BOS@CLE(+7) : I really like Boston in this situation. If you haven't watched any ESPN lately, let me fill you in–Miami and LeBron James are coming to Cleveland on Thursday. I don't think Cleveland is paying much attention to this game and instead preparing for the showdown with Miami. Cleveland has been playing well at home, beating MIL as a 1.5 point dog, and MEM as a 1 point dog in their last 2 home games, but MIL and MEM are quite different than the defending Eastern Conference Champions. Both of these teams know each other, except Cleveland has gotten worse, while Boston in my opinion has gotten better. Boston has a huge size and power advantage and Rajon Rondo is playing out of his mind. Boston is also coming off 3-days rest. Mo Williams might make this game interesting, but Boston will pull away in the end. I confidently lay the points and 3 units.

DET@ORL(-11) This game is a little more difficult. The last time Orlando was at home, they pushed with Cleveland as an 11-point favorite. Now, Cleveland is a better team than Detroit, but the points are the same. Does this create some value for Orlando? I think so. Orlando also plays very well at home, while Detroit is a weak 2-7 on the road. Put a gun to my head, I'll take ORL, but I'm not voluntarily acting on this game.

POR@PHI(+3) Man oh man, what has happened to Portland? They are currently on a 3-game losing streak. Brandon Roy isn't himself after aggravating his knee. The rest of the team seems de-motivated. Philadelphia, however, is seeing Andre Iguodala back in action. They had a nice win at home against NJ a few days ago, and hung with MIA for awhile. I think Philadelphia, barring any re-injuries, is on the uptrend. I think POR is still a playoff contender, but they need a few more games to identify and eliminate the kinks in their system. I like 1 unit on PHI.

NJ@NY(-4.5) This game is quite interesting. NY is 2-5 at home while NJ is 2-7 away. However, NY has been on fire on the road this year. You have to think they'll get it together at home sooner or later. Still, I like NJ. Until NY starts showing some dominance at home, I think giving 4.5 points is too generous. I'm thinking this is a game that will come down to the last possession. I'll take 1 unit on NJ.

LAL@MEM(+5.5) I'm a Laker fan–just getting that out there. I realize my logic will be biased and therefore this game is compromised. I never bet on the Lakers (or against them) but I can still state some opinions. MEM has come off some disappointing no covers as of late, most notably at CLE and vs GS. They will be focused, and this is a possible ambush situation. They are also well rested. Memphis is only 5-4 at home, but I believe Rudy Gay and Co. will bring it. The Lakers are reeling after an embarrassment by IND. Will they refocus and dominate Memphis? I hope so! But something tells me the Grizzlies keep it close. 0 units on MEM.

IND@SAC(OFF) Well, this is unbettable, but I'm guessing the spread will be something like SAC +4.5. Indiana has a nice laundry list of elite teams it has beaten, so I don't think the Kings, 2-7 at home, will put up much resistance. IND is a very good team with Darren Collison back at point and these guys are headed for a major upswing. Better get in as many bets as possible before Vegas starts inflating points on them! 3 units if the spread is +4.5 or less, 1 unit if the spread is 5-7.5. None if 8 and above.
*Update* OK the line is back on. at SAC+4. It looks like 'Reke is going to be suiting up for tonight. I still like the Pacers and am sticking to my 3-unit stance.

SA@GS(+4.5) I'm not sure why this spread is so low. I was under the impression it would be more like GS +7. Anyways, I think a big factor in this game will be Ginobili. He has bailed the Spurs out in a couple of recent games like vs ORL or @NO. The Spurs can't keep snoozing through 3 quarters of play only to keep making comebacks. That's not what elite teams do...and I think the Spurs are elite. They need to come out and play 4 solid quarters of basketball. GS is definitely on the downslope, but they play well at home. This line does look extremely fishy though...I'll take the HOF coach and HOF players vs the inexperienced (but drastically improved from years past) Warriors. 1 unit on SA.

Best of luck to everybody!

[Deep_Rest]

4-1-0 +6.1 units 5-1-1 total

Today was a good day. My 3-unit bets came through and we're off to a good start! Let's keep this momentum going!

[GGZOLA]

nice start hope you get an encore tonight

[Deep_Rest]

OK! Well we have a large slate of games coming at us today. By the way, these are Bodog lines (which I know are terrible and often never up until the last minute) approx. 11:30 AM Pacific. I'm not serious enough to use multiple books. Anyways, let's get started:

Preface–I hate games where the spread is 7-10. They are really hard to gauge. If you don't want to real my lengthy spiel, here's my action summary for tonight: 1 unit MEM, CHI, DEN, IND. 3 units BOS.

MEM@ATL(-5.5): This game is actually off on Bodog, but it seems to be the consensus on all the other major books. I think the major factor coming into this game is rest. Atlanta has plenty of it, while Memphis yesterday handed my Lakers a third loss in a row. Memphis' key players are still young, so I don't think exhaustion is a factor here. In fact, they might even be more hyped tonight in the ATL. Atlanta is coming off two nice road victories in TOR and NY, covering both of those spreads. ATL is an unimpressive 4-5 at home while MEM is 2-6 on the road. J. Johnson is also expected to miss this game because of an elbow injury. Even if he plays, he won't be too effective. Atlanta is a good team but they are simply giving too many points. I like Memphis to keep is close until the end, hence I'm taking the points. 1 unit MEM

WAS@TOR(-4.5): Toronto has been consistently decent this year (5-5 of their last 10). While Washington has been erratic. They are a suicide-inducing 0-8 on the road. Toronto, in my opinion, has actually defended their homecourt well, despite their 4-4 record. Washington is also expecting Wall and Thornton back in the lineup today. Honestly, I think this line is wrong. It should be more like TOR -2. Still, you're crazy if you think I'm risking money backing an 0-8 road team. 0 units WAS.

OKC@NJ(+7): OKC is a solid 6-2 road team. NJ is 4-4 at home. As I predicted yesterday, NJ kept it close vs the Knicks until Devin Harris went down. If he never got injured, NJ most likely would have covered. Anyways, let's not dwell on the past. This bestows the point solely in my UCLA friend Jordan Farmar. I love the guy, but don't trust him. Fellow UCLA alum Russell Westbrook will eat him alive. Still, 7 points is a lot for a road favorite. I would trust 7 points to consistent teams like Boston or San Antonio, but not OKC. 0 units OKC.

DET@MIA(-11.5): I'm not even going to touch this one. Will MIA overlook this game? Will MIA bench its key players in the 4th to rest them up for tomorrow? Detroit is a disgusting 2-8 on the road but 11.5 points is too much in my opinion. I take 0 units DET.

POR@BOS(-7): On one hand, I'm glad Portland is struggling since many thought they could usurp Laker dominance this year. On the other hand, these guys are just sad. Thanks to my friend the LA Times, POR has scored 11 (last night), 11, and 18 points in the 4th quarter of the previous 3 games. This will simply not get it done vs Boston I think the Nate McMillan (whom I like) watch has begun. Marcus Camby is a rebounding machine, but he will get out played by KG. Brandon Roy will get routed by Rondo. If you are going to experiment with adjustments, Boston isn't the team to do it with. I'm predicting another egg by the Blazers until they get some rest and play a few home games. 1 unit BOS.

ORL@CHI(-1.5): This gets my "Most Interesting Game of the Day" award. Is Chicago for real? Orlando is a deceptively nice 4-2 on the road while Chicago is an impressive 5-1 at home. Chicago is coming off 3 days rest whilst Orlando is coming off a win vs Detroit last night. The matchup I look forward to is Noah vs Howard. Noah is a rebounding machine, but so is Howard. It will be interesting. Derrick Rose has also been given time to heal his minor neck (or was it back?) pain. Honestly I hope Boozer doesn't come back tonight, because the Bulls are gellin right now. 1 unit CHI.

CHA@NO(-8): Can anybody name 5 people on the Bobcats not named Stephen Jackson? Well, I can't. The good news for the Bobcats is Gerald Wallace should be back in action.The bad news is Mr. Jackson, the Bobcats' best player, has been suspended for tonights game for verbally abusing a referee. The ugly news is their 2-6 away record. New Orleans, seemingly in a tailspin, is still tied with Boston for the best home record, at 7-1. New Orleans has the potential to really open up on the Bobcats, but I think they'll actually cruise to the finish line, winning by 5 or something. Still too risky for me, though. 0 units CHA.

MIN@DAL(-10): Dallas has been on fire these last few games, beating MIA at home, SA on the road, and HOU, covering all 3 of them. MIN is only SLIGHTLY better than Washington with a 1-8 record on the road. 10 points is a huge amount, but I think in this case, Dallas deserves it. Still, I'm holding out on this one because Dallas is playing its 4th game in 6 days while MIN has played 1 in the same time frame. 0 units DAL.

LAL@HOU(+6): Ugh. That's all I have to say about the Lakers If you didn't read yesterday's post, I'll remind you that I am a Lakers fan and as such, I don't bet on/against them due to my biases. As the Lakers fell to their demise last night vs. Memphis, I'm sure Rick Adelman was watching. He has been a thorn in Phil Jackson's side for the last 10 years back in his Sacramento Kings days. Adelman knows his team is undermanned and out-talented, but will never back down vs Phil Jackson. I am looking at two different scenarios: Either the Lakers get their act together and win by something like 15 points, or Houston wins. The Lakers aren't going down to the wire in this one. If this is the case, I think the actual value play is to bet HOU moneyline. 0 units HOU.

MIL@DEN(-8.5): I won't tell you how many units MIL has lost me, but it's quite high . These guys are injury plagued as well as shooting terribly. I happened to fall upon the fourth quarter of the MIL@UTAH game, they didnt make any FG's in a span of like 5 minutes. If you don't put up points, you're gonna have trouble against the Nuggets who traditionally score over 100 a game. Good news for the Bucks is that Corey Maggette should be back. I still like G. Karl and the Nuggets. 1 unit DEN.

IND@UTAH(-8): The Pacers have put together a strong last couple of weeks They look like a completely different team with UCLA alum Collison back. Still, the Jazz are serious customers, especially at home. I think giving UTAH 8 points is a little too generous, however...especially when IND is gaining a reputation as giant slayers. IND is young so I'm ignoring the back to back game disadvantage. 1 unit IND.

SA@LAC(+7): SA is a perfect 8-0 on the road this year, while the Clippers are 3-7 at home. This is inversely deceptive though. SA has beaten some tough opponents on the road, while the Clippers eeked out a win vs the hapless Kings, but a nice victory vs NO. What I'm trying to say is, this spread should be more like SA -12. Once again, thanks to the LA times, SA has beaten LAC 18 consecutive times which is amazing. Also a factor in this game is the return of one of the most cancerous athletes to have ever graced Pauley Pavilion–Baron Davis. I actually think his return will hurt the Clippers more than help. Either way, they are helpless against the Spurs. I don't like the fact that the Spurs are coming of back to back games though...so I'll sit this one out. 0 units SA.

Ouch. Just wasted 2 hours of my life writing this...12-game days are gonna be tough!!! Anyways, good luck to everybody! Let's win money!

[chanellygurl]

nice write ups and some really good plays....gl to you.....

[Deep_Rest]

Well, today was bad. I didn't expect to win all my bets, but what killed me was the Celtics . Up by 16 with 5 minutes left, they give up a 13-0 run

The Bulls also disappointed me. If you would have told me Noah would finish the night with 0 rebs. I would have laughed at you. What utter domination by the Magic.

Well, need to update the stats:

6-4-0 +3.1 Units, 9-9-1 total.

Tomorrow's always another day. Only 2 games tomorrow! Maybe I spread myself too thin today.

[Deep_Rest]

OK well we have 2 games today. Since I also have today off, I think it will also be a good time to scout tomorrow's games as well.

MIA@CLE(+6): This is the Bodog line as of 11:00 AM Pacific. It crept up overnight as it was +5 when it came out. I still think this line has some room to expand. All the LeBron fans are going to come home from work and blindly take the points before the game. I'm expecting the line to float up to 6.5-7.0. So if you like the Heat, you should have bet already! I don't really have an opinion on this game. The Cavs are severely out-talented, but what troubles me is the Heat coach. He is terrible. Wade and LeBron seem to be adjusting well to their new roles, even if their numbers are down from last year. Bosh, however, is still struggling. Teams with ineffective big men are sitting ducks. Now, Cleveland doesn't exactly have the second-coming of Dwight Howard, but they do play as a cohesive unit, and are pretty good at home. I'm buying the extra Cleveland energy that will come with this game. Also the added insult of getting beat down by the Celtics the other day. 0 units CLE.

PHO@GS(-2.5): I actually think this game is going to be more exciting that MIA@CLE. These two teams love to score points and it's no wonder the O/U is almost 230! First, let's look at GS. They were beaten soundly by the Spurs 2 days ago at home and failed to cover. GS surely doesn't want to leave this home-stand 0-2. But that being said, Phoenix has an excellent chance of covering tonight. Despite being 0-3 vs the spread in their last 3 games, Phoenix is good value. They scored over 130 in their last game vs Denver (and still managed to lose), in Denver–a tough place to play. So their offense is as potent as always. Going to the Bay isn't nearly as much of an advantage for the Warriors. It looks like starter Grant Hill will be out of action for awhile because of a sprained foot sustained in practice. Honestly, if you don't have a backup plan for Grant Hill being out, you've missed the last 10 years of his career. The Suns will be fine. It will give Hedo Turkoglu more minutes and I'm expecting 25+ from Jason Richardson tonight. 5 units PHX.

Good luck everybody!

[Deep_Rest]

Good recovery tonight. I guess I overestimated emotion. Talent beats out emotion every time...as demonstrated by the Heat in their turn-it-off-after-midway-through-the-2nd-quarter blowout of the Cavs.

Thanks ESPN for telling me Grant Hill was out tonight . This game was fun to watch. That damn Monta Ellis was going off! Everytime the Suns looked like they'd pull away he kept their team in the game. Good thing the Suns shot around 55% from the field.

New stats:
7-4-0 +7.6 units, 10-10-1 total

Lots of action tomorrow! Get ready for some good games!

[Deep_Rest]

First a couple of rants: Monta Ellis is good. GS is really going into the lions den these next few games...after this past homestand vs SA and PHX, they have @OKC, @DAL, @SA, vs MIA, @UTAH until a home game vs Minnesota. That's brutal! Loved the BOO-boo-YAY-boo-boo during the introduction of the Heat last night. Big Z, 10+ year veteran of the Cavs, deserved a positive ovation. Good job, Cleveland Bad job, Cavs UCLA's loss last night to #4 ranked Kansas was such a screwjob. Foul with .7 seconds left? It wasn't even a shooting foul, let alone a foul! They should have taken it inbounds! Good effort, UCLA and Ben Howland.

Due to the large amount of games, here is my action summary: ORL, PHI, DAL, 1 unit. NY 3 units.



NJ@CHA(-7): Devin Harris out, Stephen Jackson back. What was interesting though was how NJ took OKC to 3OT the other day under the point of Jordan Farmar. I am a buyer into the whole Friday night home teams theory, though so this game is no action for me. 0 units NJ.

POR@WAS(+4): This game has TRAP CITY written all over it. Portland is playing 3 away games in 4 days. Washington is returning home after a small road trip. John Wall's 2nd game after coming back. Still not confident enough. 0 units WAS.

OKC@TOR(+1): Kevin Durant will probably be back, but how healthy will he be? TOR plays really close at home. OKC is 7-2 away. TOR is only 1-5 vs the West but just like on Wednesday, non-healthy Durant is no action. 0 units TOR.

ORL@DET(+6.5): The Magic have been horrendous vs the spread as the away team, but pummeled CHI 2 days ago. I think they are starting to get it together. I'll lay the points on this one. 1 unit ORL.

PHI@ATL(-6.5): I still think the 76ers are on the uptrend. They probably aren't a playoff team, but with Iguodala, they are a lot different. Don't let the 1-9 away record fool you, they've won their last 2 games. They are also only playing their 3rd game in the last 7 days (including today). 6.5 points is giving away an awful lot for a team that beat MEM by only 2. 1 unit PHI.

NY@NO(-6.5): I like this game a lot. NY is destroying the spread as an away team while NO has been faltering the past few games. Aside from the squashing of the Stephen Jackson-less Bobcats, they aren't winning convincingly. Amar'e is playing like the Suns wish he played. The only thing keeping me back from making this a 5 unit or greater play is the fact that NO is 8-1 at home, best in the league (tied with Boston and Denver). Still, this is good value in my opinion! 3 units NY.

HOU@MEM(-5): Battle of the Laker beaters! Houston seems to defend home quite well, while laying deuces on the road. Memphis will be angry after that 2 point loss to Atlanta. They'll be extra focused. I think the spread is spot on and I won't even touch it. I'll just blindly pick MEM. 0 units MEM.

CHI@BOS(-5): Chicago was reminded that they're still an upper-mid card talent right now after its beatdown by Orlando. Carlos Boozer is back in the lineup which is a good thing eventually, but he still needs to adjust to his new team. The Celtics let me down the other day by blowing that 16-point lead to POR and not covering. You cant deny their homecourt advantage though. It's been there for 50 or so years. Still, something is fishy about this game. Don't like it. 0 units BOS.

MIN@SA(-12.5): All the sharps seem to be on Minnesota's jock this year and rightly so–they're being given more points than they should. But how will G.Pops and Co. react to their loss @LAC? 12.5 is too many points to bet confidently. 0 units MIN.

IND@PHO(-2.5): The Suns are killing me. I shaved off some of the money they owe me by winning yesterday's bet, but I'm still deeply in the hole to them. IND might be coming back to reality though after a big loss in Utah. I'll sit this one out, but my trend radar is definitely on this game. If Indiana wins this game, I'll consider them more than just a flash in the pan. If Phoenix wins, I think it means they are starting to get hot. Keep your eyes on this one. 0 units PHX.

LAC@DEN(-10): Baron Davis is back. He looked good the other night vs San Antonio, but you have to remember, these are the Clippers we're talking about. The same Clippers that have yet to win a road game. Denver is getting MIL (win/cover) and LAC back to back, at home. I think they keep the momentum going. I still need a better gauge on Davis's impact on the team to bet, however. 0 units DEN.

SAC@LAL(-12): If you haven't been reading the other entries, I am a Lakers fan and as such don't bet on or against the Lakers due to any biases I might have. Looks like Pau Gasol might be questionable tonight. That's all you need to know. Pau, not Kobe, seems to be the man the Lakers are running their offense through. Without him, 12 points is a steal for the Kings who always seem to play the Lakers well. 0 units SAC.

DAL@UTAH(-3.5): This is a clash of the titans type game between the two hottest teams in the NBA right now. Both have won 7 in a row. This is like two steam engines colliding! Who will be left standing? I will take the experience of Kidd and Dirk over D.Will and Co. 1 unit DAL.

[Deep_Rest]

Man, I hate Bodog. ORL@DET just got taken OTB and I have to go soon, so I'm changing my pick to 0 units ORL. Also I got PHI at +6 with -115 vig instead of +6.5 -110... early bird gets the worm I guess. I'm changing my PHX pick to 1 unit PHX since I got -2.5 -105. DAL changed to +4 normal vig.

So those are my updated picks. Best of luck to everybody!

[Deep_Rest]

Chicken Dinner Baby!

Tonight: 9-3-1 all games, 4-0 bet games for +5.5 units!

Totals: 11-4-0 +13.1 units. All games: 19-13-2.

Good stuff PHI, NY, PHX, and DAL!

[Deep_Rest]

Here are today's games:

ATL@MIA(-9): Man, I went to bed looking at MIA -7 thinking that's a huge bet, but then it moves to -9 when I wake up . The Hawks were huffin and puffin and scraped together a miracle win last night...at home...vs the 76ers. Like I've said in the previous posts, PHI is on the uptrend, but ATL was really sleepwalking until the 4th quarter last night. So, go all-in on MIA, right? NO! MIA is playing their 3rd game in 4 days and I'm not convinced they've got it together. Still, without Joe Johnson, ATL isn't complete. 0 units MIA.

CHA@PHI(-4): I know I've been high on PHI lately (and look! they've covered all their games since Iguodala came back!), but let's get realistic here–they're still a pretty bad team. There's no way they should be getting 4 points in this game. After that emotional loss last night, how will they recover? Charlotte on the other hand, made plays when it counted after an overtime scare vs NJ. Philly has covered 4-straight games, but I think they disappoint here. 1 unit CHA.

HOU@CHI(-7.5): Man oh man are the Bulls reeling, while the Rockets seem to be on an upswing. Why then, WHYYYY is Chicago getting 7.5 points?! They've been rocked the last 2 games by Boston and the Magic, two very good teams but HOU is a pretty decent downgrade from those two teams. Both these teams are getting less than a days rest to plan for tonights game, so I'm not buying any "regrouping" theories. Any team that goes from being a 5-point dog to a 7.5-point favorite regardless of talent is suspicious to me. I also don't think the Bulls have blowout potential. They always seem to win by 5-7 points which makes that .5 a point very nice. 3 units HOU.

CLE@MIN(-1): Why do the T-Wolves play the Spurs, arguably the best team in the league, so well? Unbelievable. Even though they lost both times I'm still impressed with the potential of this young team. Michael Beasley is probable for tonight, but how healthy will he be? Also, Cleveland needs to be shaken after than beatdown by the Heat. Will they recover? MIN is also playing back to back games... Too many X-factors in this one. I'll side with the dog for 0 units. 0 units CLE.

ORL@MIL(-3): Hmm...an epidemic seems to have broken out in the Orlando area. Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus and J.J. Reddick are all out due to illness. Orlando has also been pretty bad on the road this year (except for that nice last game vs the Bulls). To compound things further, Bogey should be back in action tonight and Drew Gooden is questionable for the Bucks. MIL has not covered in their last 9 games. That's awful. There is too much to think about for this game, so I'll simply skip it. Look for a high dose of Vinceanity tonight. 0 units ORL.

DAL@SAC(+8): Well it's official, after beating the Jazz last night, the Mavs are the hottest team in the league. Are they the best? That's debatable, but they're certainly on fire as of late. Anybody see that ridiculous bank-shot by Dirk last night? I'm a sucker for turnaround bank-shots ala KG, Duncan, Dirk... They are covering an astounding 6 in a row, several of those games vs top-tier teams. The Kings on the other hand are the opposite. They lost by 30 to the Lakers and are on a 5 game no-cover streak. That defense by the Mavs was suffocating last night and if D.Will had trouble vs the Mavs, so will 'Reke. Also, who's going to guard Dirk? This game looks like a disaster waiting to happen. 3 units DAL.

Looks like away city tonight! GO away teams (except ATL)! Once again, best of luck to everybody

[GarbageMan]

Here are today's games:

ATL@MIA(-9): Man, I went to bed looking at MIA -7 thinking that's a huge bet, but then it moves to -9 when I wake up . The Hawks were huffin and puffin and scraped together a miracle win last night...at home...vs the 76ers. Like I've said in the previous posts, PHI is on the uptrend, but ATL was really sleepwalking until the 4th quarter last night. So, go all-in on MIA, right? NO! MIA is playing their 3rd game in 4 days and I'm not convinced they've got it together. Still, without Joe Johnson, ATL isn't complete. 0 units MIA.

Lovin ATL here, even without Johnson the Hawks are a class act, and with the Heat coming down after Thurdays high, the Hawks will cover +9 with ease....get some cash on it

OT - You got great thread going here mate, keep up the good work.....

[Deep_Rest]

Thanks for the accolades, GarbageMan

Still can't pull the trigger on ATL though I picked Miami, but since I have no money on it and I hate LBJ, I hope you win! ATL showed little energy last night, they'll have even less tonight since they're playing b2b games. Hope I'm wrong.

[Deep_Rest]

Did I really just bet 3 units on an 8-point away favorite? How newbish of me.

Tonight: 2-4 all games, 1-2 bet games for -1.3 units

Totals 12-6-0 for +11.8 units, all games 20-15-2.

This night could have been a lot worse. So I'll take it. Got some early games tomorrow so gotta get my research down tonight!

[JOHON8]

Really good write ups, keep up the good work.

[Deep_Rest]

Hmm...well I was hoping to get my money in on NJ if the line was 7.5 or greater, but it wasn't so I'm skipping NJ. The line is also not up...typical of Bodog. I'm leaning towards cashing out and going somewhere else.

BOS@NJ(+6.5): Well, I was disappointed in how low the line was this morning. Devin Harris is supposed to be back, but will he immediately produce? 6.5 seems about right to me. WAIT, the line is just back up on Bodog...it's +5.5 now...Seems to me like they're really teasing Boston . The proper +EV play is obvious to me now...NJ ML +200. I'm picking spreads in this thread though so in terms of spread, 0 units NJ. (Probably 1 unit NJ ML)

NY@TOR(-2): DON'T BET THIS GAME! Toronto has been insane at home while NY is dominating on the road. Amar'e is getting ridiculous, but so is Bargnani. I don't remember the last time TOR lost at home but I do remember how they ambushed BOS and OKC in recent weeks. Is TOR a playoff team? For that matter, are these both playoff teams? I'll side with the home team on this one. 0 units TOR.

I'll finish writing about the rest of the games coming up after I watch my Bengals lose, and before and my Chargers win! Good luck all!

[Deep_Rest]

Ok here's the rest of my picks for today:

CLE@DET(-5.5): The Cavs have been getting destroyed as of late. Dropping a 10+ win to BOS in CLE, the LeBron squashing of 20+ points, and yesterday losing to the freakin' T-Wolves by 30+ points! Man, oh man, how 1 person leaving shatters a team. If you said the T-Wolves were gonna beat Cleveland by 30+ points last year, you'd be committed to an insane asylum. So does that mean DET is going to win by 40+ points? Probably not. CLE is on a 3-game losing streak while DET is on a 4-game losing streak. CLE is on a 3-game No-cover streak, while DET is on a 2-game NC streak. This would have been a good game 5 years ago, but today it is easily the crummiest game in quite awhile. I'll take DET, but I'm not investing in a team on a 4-game losing streak being favored by 5. 0 units DET.

NO@SA(-7): OFF on Bodog, yet again. However, if this line re-opens at 7, I am all over it. The real question about this game is the health of David West, NO's top scorer. I'm not buying into him. The reason he scores so much is because of Chris Paul, who is gonna be suiting up tonight. The team will certainly be better off if West plays, but whoever his replacement is, as long as he gets around 12 points, I like NO covering. Of the two meetings these two teams have had this year, the away team has covered both times. Make money! 5 units NO only if the spread is 7 or better. I'll update if the line opens differently.

GS@OKC(-6): As a general principle, I don't like betting on inconsistent teams favored by 6 or greater...and in my book, OKC is pretty inconsistent. Are we going to see the OKC that beat Boston without Durant? Or the OKC that goes to triple OT vs the Nets without Devin Harris and gets stomped by TOR the next day. GS is 8-11, but they play better than their record indicates. However, they are 3-7 on the road, which I can't make an excuse for. I'll side with the dog on this one, but once again, no-Durant, no action. 0 units GS.

MEM@DEN(-6): These two teams have fallen under my radar as of late, but I do know that with that NO loss at home vs NY, DEN is now only tied with Boston as the best home record in the NBA. Memphis is a terrible 2-7 on the road so far. I like Denver in this spot, but if MEM plays to their potential, this can get really close. 0 units DEN.

WAS@PHX(-8): I like WAS in this position. Now if you've been following me, we've made a nice chunk of money off PHX but 8 is too high. WAS is also winless on the road. I think PHX is due for a letdown. It seems like every time they are favored by 5 or more, they blow it. Grant Hill seems to be shooting 90% from the floor...will that last? John Wall is getting back into the groove of things and I think he has a nice night. 1 unit WAS.

LAC@POR(-7.5): This is a based-on-principle bet. The principle being a team on a 6-game losing streak is coming home and suddenly they are enjoying a 7.5 cushion. I don't think so. In case you haven't noticed, LAC are on the uptrend. They took DEN neck and neck before collapsing late in the 4th and also took SA (the best team in the league statistically) to the wire. Kaman is back. Davis is back. Griffin is crazy. They're only going to get better. Yes, they are 0-9 on the road this year, but that was without several important people. There's a decent chance the Clipshow takes this one outright. 3 units LAC.

As always, good luck with your plays! Thanks to everybody for the praise I've been getting so far.

[GarbageMan]

Feelin that Clippers bet too, against a deflated Blazers and with the likes of Gordon and Griffin this could even be a SU win for the Clippers....

Good luck..........

[Deep_Rest]

Whoops. Today was dismal to say the least. Lost ALL my bets Gotta scale back the risky plays.

Tonight: 2-6 total, 0-3 betting for -9 units.

Totals: 12-9-0 +2.8 units, 22-21-2 total.

[Deep_Rest]

Hopefully I can recover from the last two losing days...

Betting summary: 1 unit IND, UTAH, 3 units MIA

TOR@IND(-7): I like Indiana to get back on track after getting smashed by UTAH and PHX back to back (both NC's). IND is coming off 2 days rest and will be ready for this one. TOR on the other hand is coming off a big loss to NY at home yesterday. In this series, the hometeam has covered 8 TIMES IN A ROW. That's crazy. TOR is a paltry 2-7 on the road while IND is an unimpressive 4-5. I expect lots of points in this one, but IND will pull away in the end. 1 unit IND.

ATL@ORL(-6.5): If anybody's been sick before, they know that one goes back to work before they are completely better. The NBA is no different. Reddick, Pietrus, and Howard might be back from "illness", but I'm hardly convinced they are 100%. Nelson is doubtful. Still, ATL is a shaky team and I'll have no part of it. 0 units ORL.

MIN@NY(-6.5): NY is definitely turning into a powerhouse. MIN on the other hand, is vastly improved, but bad nonetheless. It seems to me like NY is a younger version of the Spurs. Duncan::Stoudemire Parker::Felton Ginobili::Galinari Of course New York doesn't have the Pops running the show so that's a big negative. MIN also plays the Spurs very tight for some reason...so in accordance to my analogy, I like MIN to play NY tight. Still, this will be a wild game and I think the variance is too big for me. 0 units MIN.

MIA@MIL(+4): I put in this game last night, and it has since bubbled up to 5 (5.5 in some places) so I'm using 4 as the reference point. I think Bosh is coming around. He's been putting up some decent numbers ever since the Cleveland game so I think his slump is over. MIL is enjoying Bogut back and finally broke their terrible 9NC streak 2 days ago vs ORL. ORL is a defensively minded team, but all of their defenders were out. MIA is also defensively minded and they are 100%. I like the MIA defense to pick apart MIL and force boatloads of turnovers. There's an excellent chance MIL doesn't break 85 in this one and we all know MIA can put up points. 3 units MIA.

OKC@CHI(-4.5): Both these teams are too inconsistent. No action. 0 units OKC. I like the under though.

MEM@UTAH(-9.5): Contrary to the final score, DEN blew out MEM (Congrats George Karl on his 999th win). UTAH will not be so kind and let up in the 4th quarter. They are coming off a 4th quarter meltdown vs DAL and will be looking for blood. UTAH has covered at least their last 10 meetings vs MEM which means UTAH simply owns MEM. The SBR stats didn't even go far back enough to tell me when MEM last covered vs UTAH. I don't like putting more than 1 unit on a 9.5 favorite, though. 1 unit UTAH.

SAC@LAC(-4): Anytime the Clippers are favored, my automatic reflex is to pull the trigger on the other team. This isn't an exception, but both of these teams give me no confidence. I'll pass. 0 units SAC.

Good luck!

[chanellygurl]

gl 2 u....only thing is im on the bucks......hate being on opposite sides but gl.....like the jazz but have not made a play on it yet....best of luck........

[Deep_Rest]

Well today was interesting. Still came out ahead which is good.

Today: 2-1 +2.5 units bet games, 2-5 total

Totals: 14-10-0 +5.3 units, 24-26-2 all games.

[Deep_Rest]

Betting Summary: 1 unit PHI, PHX. 3 units DEN.

NJ@ATL(-6.5): slight lean towards ATL. They beat ORL yesterday, but how healthy was ORL to begin with? They did have their first good game without J. Johnson, though. It seems like the team has finally adjusted to his absence. They will be facing a NJ team that just got blown out by Boston 2 days ago. NJ is bad on the road...2-9 so far. Still don't want to be on a team without a key player. 0 units ATL.

DEN@CHA(+1.5): I was all over this game last night. The Nuggets are always a playoff team, are healthy for the most part, and they are taking on a losing franchise...and they're only favored by 1.5? Yes, please! Furthermore, sweetjones55 likes the play too! I suggest reading his synopsis of the game under his thread. If you don't want to read it, the main points are thus–G. Karl's 1000th win if he wins, the weak competition CHA has beaten during its home games, and the tough competition DEN has played during their away games. Most books have this game at 2 right now. Still worth it I think. 3 units DEN.

CLE@PHI(-6.5): Well I was wrong about the last time I bet against PHI. I thought they would just get a boost during Iguodala's return, now it seems they are a decent team (relatively speaking). They have covered 5 games in a row, while Cleveland is on a 4 NC streak. Cleveland is getting hammered, too. I'm talking losing by 30 to the T-Wolves, then a 10 point win by DET. At home, I'd say PHI is better than either of those teams. PHI actually has a winning record at home (5-4) while CLE is pretty bad on the road (3-7). After that loss to MIA, Cleveland is flat out depressed. I look for them to regroup for their next homegame, but until then, they're dogmeat. Still, 1 unit is the max for me on a 6-point or greater spread. 1 unit PHI.

DET@HOU(-7): Man, these 6.5 and 7 spreads are getting old! What happened to the 3 and 3.5's? Luis Scola is playing good ball right now and so are the rest of the Rockets. This is a first game of a road trip for DET so I think they'll come in focused though. HOU is on a 3-game cover streak. 0 units DET.

GS@DAL(-9): Dallas' nice covering streak came to an end after a near upset by SAC. They are still the hottest team in the league with a 9-game winning streak. GS has really cooled off since their back to back beating by SA and PHX. They are also a bad road team at 3-8. However, DAL is also a notoriously bad home team even though their record is 8-3. I tend to side with the underdogs on these huge spreads but I won't be betting it. GS always has that ability to put up majors points, even vs a good defensive team like DAL. 0 units GS.

PHX@POR(-2.5): PHX has built some strong momentum in their last few games. They are on a 3-game covering streak and show no signs of slowing down. POR, is always good at home, however. Andre Miller will be suspended today for his role in that scuffle vs the Clippers a few days ago. If there's a clutch player on the Blazers not named Brandon Roy, it's Miller. I think his absence will have a large impact on this game. I don't think the POR bench is deep enough to compensate for this loss. 1 unit PHX.

WAS@LAL(-13): Once again, I am a Lakers fan and as such can't bet on or against the Lakers. Washington is still winless on the road. The Lakers are one of the better home teams. After a recent string of embarrassing losses, the Lakers regrouped against the hapless SAC team in dominating fashion, winning by almost 30. I see a similar result here. 0 units LAL.

[chanellygurl]

would you consider betting the lakers in the first half???

[Deep_Rest]

I'm on Bodog, which doesn't offer halves or quarters I'm in the process of expanding to either Greek or Legends but need a few more paychecks before I can do that.

[Deep_Rest]

Well, it seems like I'm taking 1 step forward and 2 steps back. I was so confident about Denver too! I think the books made a killing on that game.

Today: 1-2 bet games for -3.1 units, 3-4 total.

Totals: 15-12-0 for +2.2 units, 27-30-2 NBA total.

I need to start getting my act together or I might have an early retirement from NBA betting!

[chanellygurl]

well i thought they would drop that game only because i think they want him to get that win at home........vest of luck to you today sir......

[Deep_Rest]

Busy today so here is a summary of all my picks

CHI@CLE(+8): CLE
DEN@BOS(-7): BOS
TOR@NY (-7): NY
DET@NO (-10): DET
IND@MIL (-1.5): MIL
OKC@MIN (+6): MIN
GS@SA (-10.5): SA
MIA@UTAH (+1.5): UTAH
MEM@PHX (-4): MEM
WAS@SAC (-4): WAS
LAL@LAC (+8): LAL

Betting summary: CLE, MIN, 1 unit, NY 3 units.

Good luck, all!

[Deep_Rest]

3 crappy days and I'm in the red. Thanks for the epic collapse, T-Wolves! I also hate Andrea Bargnani.

Yesterday: 1-2 bet games for -3.1 units, 5-6 total games

Totals: 16-14-0 for -.9 units, 32-36-2 total NBA

Today's betting summary: PHI 1 unit.

BOS@PHI(+5.5): PHI
NJ@DAL(-10.5): DAL
ORL@POR(+2.5): POR

[erkamatating]

man keep your head up and keep cappn the way you was...i loved your write ups and hey we all slump at one point....but gl to ya as i am also on philly...

[Deep_Rest]

Hey! What do you know! A winning day! It was just 1-unit but it's the confidence that counts. I have also tweaked my betting criteria so I will be betting a lot less. I have some free time tomorrow, so I'll try to go over every game like I used to.


Today: 1-0 bet games for +.9 units. 3-0 all games.

Totals: 17-14-0 bet games for 0 units. 35-36-2 NBA totals.

[Deep_Rest]

Betting summary for today: 1 unit IND, OKC 3 units TOR.

NY@WAS(+2.5): This smells like a trap game to me. NY has been on an absolute tear lately winning 6 in a row while covering 5 of their last 6 games. NY is 9-4 on the road and Amar'e is certainly making a case for MVP. We all know the Wizards are winless on the road, but they are actually a winning 6-3 at home. Both of these teams play very little defense, allowing over 106 points per game. The only difference is NY scores 108 points a game while WAS scores 10 fewer points per game. NY loves to drive the the hole, but also has a good 3-ball squad led by Galinari. The Wizards just shoot lots of jumpshots which leads to inconsistency. John Wall is still on the injury report with foot problems but I'm guessing he will play. I love betting home dogs in his position, but with John Wall's uncertainties and NY's hot streak I'll stay away. 0 units WAS.

DEN@TOR(+2): I got burned the other night for 3-units by taking DEN -1.5 @ CHA. I may be on tilt, but I absolutely love this matchup. Carmelo was sidelined with a sore knee 2 days ago vs Boston and he is still listed on the injury report. If he plays, I don't expect him to be 100%. Toronto is pretty good at home at 6-5 (they are better than their record indicates) while DEN is 3-7 on the road. Denver is currently on a 4-game NC streak. TOR was actually leading through most of their last away game @NY. Letting that game slip through their fingers and under the Friday Night Lights, I expect Bargnani and Co. to come out strong. It seems like George Karl wants to go back to Denver for that 1000th win. 3 units TOR.

CHA@IND(-6): The Pacers are good. They lost narrowly to the Bucks 2 days ago, but I think the Bucks are on the uptrend with Bogut and Maggette back. CHA had a nice home game vs the Nuggets, but they are 3-8 away. IND is 5-5 at home. I think IND will win this one by 15+. Still, I've been burned by CHA before, so I'm only going 1 unit. 1 unit IND.

OKC@NO(-3): I like OKC in this game. Durant is healthy and back to his scoring 25+ per game. OKC is also 8-4 on the road. NO is still sporting the best home record in the league (tied with Boston at 9-2). Even though they beat the weak Pistons by 10+ points, this is still a team with a lot of problems right now. Getting taken over by the NBA is surely looming over all the players as well as the coach. 1 unit OKC.

LAL@CHI(+1.5): If you haven't been reading the other entries, I am a Lakers fan and as such don't bet on or against the Lakers due to any biases I might have. That being said, I still have some opinions about this game. I like the Bulls in this spot. Carlos Boozer should run over Odom. It would usually be Bynum's job to handle a PF like Boozer but he's out so...Noah is a rebounding machine and Boozer is too strong. I see Pau and Odom getting outplayed by them. 0 units CHI.

HOU@MIL(-3.5): This might seem like a crummy matchup, but I think this is a serious heat check for both teams. HOU is on a 4-game covering streak, while MIL has put together a few wins after that huge collapse. As I mentioned earlier, Bogut and Maggette are back and have been putting up good numbers. Luis Scola is also on fire as of late. You can't really take MIL's statistics into consideration since 2 of their key players have been gone for most of the year...but trust me when I say the Bucks play well at home. That pesky .5 a point is sticking out at me though so I don't like this game. 0 units MIL.

ATL@SA(-8): Well I think its been a week since Joe Johnson got injured. As a rule, I try not to bet on a team who loses a key player until a week later, to give the team time to adjust. That grieving period is now over. ATL is still a playoff team, and when a playoff calibur team is an 8-point dog, it's hard not to side with them. SA is statistically the best team in the league, however. ATL is a good 8-3 on the road, but I don't recall any of those teams being good. ATL seems like a bully to me...they beat up the mid-card guys by 10+ points, but drop big ones against good teams. I think this is one of those situations. 0 units SA.

ORL@UTAH(-3): Man, what happened to ORL last night? They put up 80 points I think, and 38 of those were scored by Howard. The rest of the team didn't seem to show up. Now they face a tough UTAH team who was just embarrassed by the Heat at home. ORL is notorious for not covering the spread as an away team and I think this trend continues. Even if ORL regroups, UTAH is still pretty angry about that loss the other night. 0 units UTAH.

POR@PHX(-6): I don't understand how PHX is a 6 point favorite in this position. 2 days ago MEM was a 4-point dog and actually BEAT the Suns. So are they saying POR is 2-points WORSE than freakin' Memphis, the team that just beat PHX? There are a few more factors to consider: POR is playing back to back games (if you want to call that beatdown of ORL a game). And secondly, that terrible road trip POR just took back East. Still, this line doesn't make any sense to me, but it is suspicious. 0 units POR.

MIA@GS(+9): Anytime a home team is a 9-point dog, you have to take it...even if you know the Heat can blow away GS by 40-points. Oh, wait! Steph Curry is injured! And I can't bet on a team who has lost a key player until a week later! Man am I relieved. In all honesty though, I don't need to pepper you with stats, just stay away from this game. MIA is on fire right now, but 9 points is simply too much to give a home team...missing player and all. 0 units GS.

Well that's that. Enjoy the day, everybody and good luck tonight!

[BookiesBernanke]

Thanks, nice write-up

[Deep_Rest]

Well I pick 8-3 today and still manage to lose money...that just sucks. I bet 3 units on DEN to beat CHA, CHA covers, 3 units on NY to beat TOR, TOR covers, and tonight I bet on TOR to beat DEN and DEN covers. I just can't win.

Tonight: 2-1 bet games for -1.2 units, 8-3 all games.
Total: 19-15-0 bet games for -1.2 units, 43-39-2 all NBA.

I'd probably be up if I just bet 1 unit on all my bet games! No more 3-unit bets!