[mundane]

well im bored here at work and thought i'd do some capping for a few props plays that might be available at my book for tomorrow's game 3.

i chose 4 lakers starters numbers. average numbers are below. numbers i considered are from games:

• home game 1 (nuggs)
• home game 1 (jazz)
• home game 1 (spurs)
• after a loss on the road, playing on the road (jazz)
• after a loss on the road, playing on the road (spurs)
• after a loss on the road, playing on the road (celtics)
• after a loss on the road, back to LA (jazz)

*POINTS *REBOUNDS *ASSISTS

Kobe averages 30.71 pts, 6 rebs & 6.14 assists

• 32 3 1
• 39 6 7
• 27 5 9
• 33 8 10
• 28 10 1
• 30 4 8
• 26 6 7

Gasol averages 20.57 pts, 9.86 rebs & 5.43 assists

• 36 16 8
• 18 10 5
• 19 7 3
• 23 10 4
• 10 10 6
• 17 10 4
• 21 6 8

Odom averages 16.43 pts, 10.29 rebs & 2.71 assists

• 17 14 6
• 16 9 3
• 8 8 2
• 26 13 2
• 16 9 3
• 10 8 2
• 22 11 1

Fisher averages 8.43 pts, 2.14 rebs & 2.71 assists

• 3 3 4
• 5 3 6
• 4 3 0
• 15 0 0
• 9 3 1
• 9 0 3
• 14 3 5

*just some numbers to think about before placing ur wagers. no way am i guaranteeing any wins even though we might see some edge on some numbers.

[mundane]

imo, i think the numbers coming from these two games carry more weight than the others:

• after a loss on the road, playing on the road (celtics)
• after a loss on the road, back to LA (jazz)

so from these 4 players, im leaning on gasol to go over on his props line. that is if it's still 25.5 pts + rebs

[mundane]

word of caution on playing odom, i think he really is hurting physically. i think he's just downplaying it.

game 1: 14 pts, 6 rebs and 1 assist
game 2: 10 pts, 8 rebs and 2 assists

excerpt from sportingnews

Is Lamar Odom hurting?

Odom's 14 points on 6-for-11 shooting were right at his playoff averages, but his assists and rebounds numbers were down. Is he hurting? He sat out much of the Lakers' practice on Saturday because, "I've got a couple parts of my body that just need to heal up a little bit." Such as? "I can't tell you. They might attack it." Pierce's knee will be the most closely watched injury on Sunday night, but keep at least one eye on how Odom is moving.

[FreeFall]

post your prop plays tom. mundane! I'd love to tail them.

[mundane]

i'll try to post them. i've been hitting them lately actually playing more units!

im biased though on this series as im only capping lakers players. i dont want to see any of the celtics players scoring so even though i think they might go over, i want them to go under! LOL!

we'll see tomorrow. hopefully ill get the props plays sheet early.

freefall u bet online right? so as long as i post them before gametime ull be able to bet them (if u really wanna tail me). but ill try my best to post them early. only one sportsbook here offering props plays. besides being late to post them, they are also limited. no parlays among other.

goodluck to my lakers tomorrow!

[FreeFall]

ya I bet online so it's easier for me. I still remember your NBA season days. Man did you get me a lot of extra cash.

[mundane]

really?? im glad then i made u some extra dough!

btw i stopped posting (on my own thread) coz it was affecting my money management. 3 or more consecutive days of posting losing picks in my thread affected me. ur under a lot of pressure showing a +unit day/s and that affected my betting strategy. i know it shldnt matter as everyone is really nice in this forum but it really did bother me - looking at my pathetic losing picks day in, day out. lol! ...now im more calm even on a losing day but deliberate whenever i see an edge on some of my (winning) picks. im still around 55-60% capper but the difference now is, i got the mental edge on how much i bet. if u remembered, i bet big (almost all in) on dat game 2 lakers vs jazz. that won and doubled+ my profits. and from the last 2 rounds, i just tripled+ it.

what's been working for me is:

dont bet if u dont see any edge. just pass. there are a lot more games to come and cap.

bet within ur normal size of bet. but if u really see an edge, go for it.

bet big if ur dat confident and u capped and analyzed it to the best of ur ability taking into consideration of course dat in the off-chance it loses, you'll still come out alive. losing big could be a big blow to ur confidence. losing smaller bets are easier to swallow. get it back and then some next time.

im a recreational bettor, if there ever is such a thing. im not as degenerate as everybody else here. LOL! JK! im still open for suggestions and loves tailing winners. just dont mess with my NBA capping! ...and yeah with my lakers too!

[mundane]

here's another number i came up with using some numbers (total pts by the team) from these 2008 playoff games by these 2 teams.

Lakers total points for game 3 = 102 +/-2

Celtics total points for game 3 = 88 +/-2

a slight edge for the under 196. also for the lakers -9.5 (i juzz checked thegreek line and theirs are down to 195.5)

*i used 8 lakers totals, only 6 on the celtics. so i feel more confident with my lakers total number here than my projection for the celtics total. celtics numbers are totally out of whack as they played 2 defensive oriented teams from the previous rounds. lakers numbers are more consistent imo sans totals from the nuggets series.

hmmm.. let's see how i feel about this by game/bet time as im actually leaning towards the over here esp in the first half.

[mundane]

*posting early for my buddy freefall!

using betgameday props lines and comparing them to my numbers here are my props picks for game 3.

pts scored by kobe over 30.5 (-145) *.5 unit
assists by gasol over 4 (-110) *1 unit
pts + rebs by gasol over 26.5 (-130) *1 unit

these juices are killers though! ..and yeah imo these lines are very sharp! i suggest a no-play if u were leaning on the under to begin with.

*ill post later what exact lines i'd get from by book.

[FreeFall]

Thank mundane I appreciate it!

and i still remember you nailing those 4 team RR's.

[mundane]

ur welcome. as always, no guarantees but a slight edge is an edge in my book.

btw, im not gonna go crazy amount-wise on my betting today. lakers have never been into this position before and i've never really followed celtics. so yeah, a no-play is almost the smart play here. but im not gonna have dat. cmon now, it's the finals and my lakers are playing. :P ...so yeah im going with some numbers i've crunched. gut is telling me dat lakers are gonna win but i think dat -9.5 is just too much to cover (half or a quarter unit play only on this 'forced' play being a lakers fan ). initial lean was also for the over but after looking at some numbers, i changed my mind and will be taking the under for the game. again, like i said, im lowering my betting amount on this game. prolly cut to more than half my normal.

goodluck bud! let's go lakers!

*dat assists props play on gasol may not be available at my book. but i really like dat line. hopefully u do too!

[mundane]

crap! available props at my book doesnt look too promising compared to my initial picks from betgameday lines!

Game 3 Props Plays (lines are -110 unless stated otherwise)

total 3pt fg's made both teams combined
o 13.5 -130
u 13.5 +110

first to score 10+ pts
lakers -140
celtics +120

first to score 25+ pts
lakers -210
celtics +180

total pts lakers
o/u 102.5

total pts celtics
o/u 93

pts k bryant
o/u 31

pts + rebs l odom
o/u 23.5

pts p gasol
o/u 17.5

pts + assists d fisher
o/u 14.5

pts s vujacic
o/u 10.5

pts k garnett
o/u 20.5

rebs k garnett
o/u 10.5

pts + rebs p pierce
o/u 25.5

pts r allen
o/u 17

pts + assists r rondo
o/u 16.5

[mundane]

oh well, here we go...

kobe pts over 31 *.5 unit ~ relying bigtime for kobe to have a monster game at home!
gasol pts over 17.5 *.5 unit
total pts scored by celtics under 93 *.5 unit

*i'd rather have ~ pts + rebs by gasol over 26.5 than gasol pts over 17.5. tsk!

wucha guyz like? thoughts?

[FreeFall]

I'm really liking

KG misses a FT -160

can someone convince me otherwise?

[mundane]

I'm really liking

KG misses a FT -160

can someone convince me otherwise?

he only went perfect on the line 2 out of 8 on road playoff games. odds are on ur favor that he'll miss one.

[Mattn3236]

I'm on Kobe ovr 30.5 pts -125. He explodes tonight. Probably at least 12 ft attempts for him!

[Rage1hp]

Could you give me a hand, please?

I have Gasol in my bookie (euro bookie so the odds probably are lower) 32.5 points total assists + points + rebounds @ -130. Anyone feel like its a good bet? He sure seems pretty hot last games.

I like the Kobe over 30.5 but my bookie only gives me over 31.5 at -140 wich doesn't look like a good offer to me.

[ryanXL977]

kobe over 1 steal -165

[mundane]

under looking good but gasol is having an offnight!
kobe better hit that over mark. 32+ pts.

let's go lakers! win this shit!

[mundane]

oh well, here we go...

kobe pts over 31 *.5 unit ~ relying bigtime for kobe to have a monster game at home!
gasol pts over 17.5 *.5 unit
total pts scored by celtics under 93 *.5 unit

*i'd rather have ~ pts + rebs by gasol over 26.5 than gasol pts over 17.5. tsk!

wucha guyz like? thoughts?

kobe pts over 31 *.5 unit
gasol pts over 17.5 *.5 unit
total pts scored by celtics under 93 *.5 unit

2-1 +unit day!

[gizmo2431]

Nice job on the props mundane... I myself took one prop bet and won with Gasol OVER 9.5 RBDS +125...

[gizmo2431]

Oh and btw... way to clean-up in the best bet thread on this game and last

[mundane]

sneaky move on dat over total rebs by gasol! i like ur style!
i knew dat pts by gasol was gonna comeback and bite me!

thanks for the props.. yeah since game 1, been on the plus side even though lakers havent covered and are down 1-2. oh well. u win some u lose some.