[sweetjones55]

Celtics are favored by 3 tonight.

Boston allows 94 points, Memphis allows 106.

Boston has won 6 of the last 7 games including wins vs Miami, OKC, Chicago, and Milwaukee all playoff teams. Memphis is 2-4 last 6 games (one of the wins was to Sacramento, top 5 worst team in the NBA).

Boston has 6 hall of famers (Rondo, Shaq, Pierce, Allen, Garnett, and I think Rivers will make it one day as a coach). Memphis has zero, no one has a shot of even getting close.

Boston shoots 48% FG, 79% FT's, and and 39.3% 3PFG's. Memphis shoots signficantly lower in all 3 categories, 45% FG's, 73% FT's, and 35% 3PFG's.

Memphis is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games at home. Road team is 7-1 ATS last 8.

Boston has the edge in matchup at every position except C. Boston's power rating is -7 to -8 at every site.

92% of the public is taking Celtics and the line opened at -3 and has gone down to -2.5. Pinnacle giving Celtics -3 -101, Matchbook -3 +103.

Seriously, what in the world is going on with this game?

[sweetjones55]

Dexter, Lakerboy, Lyon. I would appreciate your comments in here.

[belvedere86]

Looks same situation like the lakers denver game. Dog won

[sweetjones55]

Looks same situation like the lakers denver game. Dog won

Completely different situation as Denver has always owned LA at home.

[Dexter]

Celtics are favored by 3 tonight.

Boston allows 94 points, Memphis allows 106.

Boston has won 6 of the last 7 games including wins vs Miami, OKC, Chicago, and Milwaukee all playoff teams. Memphis is 2-4 last 6 games (one of the wins was to Sacramento, top 5 worst team in the NBA).

Boston has 6 hall of famers (Rondo, Shaq, Pierce, Allen, Garnett, and I think Rivers will make it one day as a coach). Memphis has zero, no one has a shot of even getting close.

Boston shoots 48% FG, 79% FT's, and and 39.3% 3PFG's. Memphis shoots signficantly lower in all 3 categories, 45% FG's, 73% FT's, and 35% 3PFG's.

Memphis is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games at home. Road team is 7-1 ATS last 8.

Boston has the edge in matchup at every position except C. Boston's power rating is -7 to -8 at every site.

92% of the public is taking Celtics and the line opened at -3 and has gone down to -2.5. Pinnacle giving Celtics -3 -101, Matchbook -3 +103.

Seriously, what in the world is going on with this game?

im a huge grizzlies fan as i think they are loaded with talent. on paper the celts look like the play (which the public agrees with) but i circled this game on my calendar the other night when bos beat mia. i had cle over bos earlier in the season in the same situation. i actually thought this line would be around bos -3/4...but again, im biased towards the grizz..

im really starting to stray away from putting a lot of weight into h2h historicals - i look at it, but like situational betting much more.

classic RLM going on here....i would have went higher then 3x, but my 2 non autobet larger plays (5x each) lost this week....im really trying to rely on my autobets to make or break my season.

randolph, gay, gasol, conley and mayo are an uber talented starting 5. sat night home crowd should play a role in this game as well amping up the grizz a little more to spring the upset...

[sweetjones55]

im a huge grizzlies fan as i think they are loaded with talent. on paper the celts look like the play (which the public agrees with) but i circled this game on my calendar the other night when bos beat mia. i had cle over bos earlier in the season in the same situation. i actually thought this line would be around bos -3/4...but again, im biased towards the grizz..

im really starting to stray away from putting a lot of weight into h2h historicals - i look at it, but like situational betting much more.

classic RLM going on here....i would have went higher then 3x, but my 2 non autobet larger plays (5x each) lost this week....im really trying to rely on my autobets to make or break my season.

randolph, gay, gasol, conley and mayo are an uber talented starting 5. sat night home crowd should play a role in this game as well amping up the grizz a little more to spring the upset...

Don't let two prior losses determine the size of the play. If you think it is worth 5x then I think you should put 5x. Have confidence in yourself, you know what you are doing and you are very good capper.

[monkeyking]

remember memphis' bench sucks, so they might have more of an edge in the first quarter, and i think pinny agrees

[Dexter]

Don't let two prior losses determine the size of the play. If you think it is worth 5x then I think you should put 5x. Have confidence in yourself, you know what you are doing and you are very good capper.

not tonight....im dropping a dime on the bobcats. thx.

[Tennispro]

Hard one line is correct...would not touch this one...
Tough card tonight i only see one okeish game..

[ttwarrior1]

celtics all the way

[Snowball]

there's been a lot of upsets, look at Raptors beating Orlando last night.

Unless you're from Boston or following the Celtics religiously, it's hard to appreciate
them. The rest of the country doesn't appreciate them and has turned the two victories
over Miami to a nay vote on Miami but not a plus vote for the Celtics.
Utah also beat Miami, so the perception goes..

bottom line the C's will only get better, Delonte West plays next week.
Jermaine O'Neal is in Boston and Shaq won't see many minutes
Boston is the team to beat in the East every team at home it's a big draw on their schedule
every team gives it their best to beat the C's.

Go with your gut Nice post you made
Vegas gets a lot of games wrong. Their line is so off so often it's not even funny
yet we look at the lines as if they have any significance
the line is a head fake. Perception becomes reality..
if it's a low line bettors think Memphis has a chance to win or will keep it close.

3 points + 4 points home advantage = Boston -7 anyway

ask yourself this question.. following such a grand slam win
do you really think the Celtics want to return back home
with a letdown loss at the Grizzlies ? No way Jose.

[Dexter]

ask yourself this question.. following such a grand slam win
do you really think the Celtics want to return back home
with a letdown loss at the Grizzlies ? No way Jose.

do you think the players think that way? they dont want to lose, but letdowns do happen vs "bad" teams.

this is a veteran team who knows its all about the second season - they have played down to the level of competition a few times this year already (cle, ny, milw). fact is, the grizzlies are loaded with much more talent then any of those 3 teams - now make them a home dog and this game screams saturday night upset to me....

[Snowball]

do you think the players think that way? they dont want to lose, but letdowns do happen vs "bad" teams.

this is a veteran team who knows its all about the second season - they have played down to the level of competition a few times this year already (cle, ny, milw). fact is, the grizzlies are loaded with much more talent then any of those 3 teams - now make them a home dog and this game screams saturday night upset to me....

i know what you are saying.. took that into consideration..
good luck with your bet, if you make it on Grizzlies.. but with the
very light line they basically have to win, barring last-minute luck in a tight
cover situation.

[sweetjones55]

Go with your gut Nice post you made
Vegas gets a lot of games wrong. Their line is so off so often it's not even funny
yet we look at the lines as if they have any significance
the line is a head fake. Perception becomes reality..
if it's a low line bettors think Memphis has a chance to win or will keep it close.

3 points + 4 points home advantage = Boston -7 anyway

ask yourself this question.. following such a grand slam win
do you really think the Celtics want to return back home
with a letdown loss at the Grizzlies ? No way Jose.

Bottomline is that Vegas gets more games right than they get wrong. None of us hit games at a 100% but we all have to play the odds to try and be successful.

You have to give the oddsmakers more credit, they know more than you do. All the stats/info you brought up, they know and they know it well. Yet they still put out a line to entice as many Boston backers as possible.

[Snowball]

Bottomline is that Vegas gets more games right than they get wrong.

how is that so ? I meant that the lines are often not tight. We tend to remember the tight line games more so than the ones where the result if off by 5++.
Vegas isn't in the business of being right on anything except balancing the
sides of a wager.

[sweetjones55]

how is that so ? I meant that the lines are often not tight. We tend to remember the tight line games more so than the ones where the result if off by 5++.
Vegas isn't in the business of being right on anything except balancing the
sides of a wager.

You are dead wrong here and this Boston game is the perfect example of why you are wrong. Do you really think the linesmakers thought they were going to get equal action when they set the line at Boston -3 today @ Memphis? Answer yourself that question honestly.

[hels]

This is the case where you have to bet against what you believe should be the right bet (Boston-2.5) and realize that the bookmakers know soemthing we don't. Relevant story was last year when I was in Australia and started following the NBL. I saw what I thought were so many great spots just to continually lose each time and would just be left shaking my head. Then I started realizing maybe I should bet the opposite of what looks correct. Posted my plays in a thread and started 17-1 for spread/OU. Finished up at 23-4 (I think coulda been 24-5 or 24-4 or something).

Today I'm putting what I feel is stupid money on Memphis-2.5. The crazy thing is you win these stupid money bets more often than you lose and kinda feel a little bit of disbelief.

[Mthorn]

Going with the gut feeling. Go Celtics

[Snowball]

You are dead wrong here and this Boston game is the perfect example of why you are wrong. Do you really think the linesmakers thought they were going to get equal action when they set the line at Boston -3 today @ Memphis? Answer yourself that question honestly.

why don't you answer this question to yourself.. since you believe that
Vegas actually chooses sides on these bets. How does Vegas make money ?
They make money off the vig. When there is an imbalance they are overexposed to one side over another, oddsmakers start it, but then the action pushes the line. Just because you can't accurately see that action doesn't
mean it's not there. If Vegas was in the business of choosing sides on wagers
they would be no better at making money than handicappers. No, Vegas
is there to equalize the action and make money off the juice on the number of wagers only.

[Goat Milk]

what is all this talk about books know something we don't? based on the matchup analysis, memphis is fully capable of beating boston tonight.

snowball- what you think vegas doesn't chose sides? they pick their spots and they take chances too

[sweetjones55]

why don't you answer this question to yourself.. since you believe that
Vegas actually chooses sides on these bets. How does Vegas make money ?
They make money off the vig. When there is an imbalance they are overexposed to one side over another, oddsmakers start it, but then the action pushes the line. Just because you can't accurately see that action doesn't
mean it's not there. If Vegas was in the business of choosing sides on wagers
they would be no better at making money than handicappers. No, Vegas
is there to equalize the action and make money off the juice on the number of wagers only.

Just please answer the question and stop typing up generalizations about vig and action.

Do you think that the linesmakers believed they would get equal action setting the line at Boston -3? Yes or No?

[SolidDala]

with almost 85% on BOS and line haven't moved, sits even at -105 at Pinny.. I would not take BOS tonight thats for damn sure..

[Snowball]

what is all this talk about books know something we don't? based on the matchup analysis, memphis is fully capable of beating boston tonight.

snowball- what you think vegas doesn't chose sides? they pick their spots and they take chances too

this post proves the line is balanced.. because there are reasons to take
Memphis, Boston lost to them last year, I remember. Vegas will of course
allow some overexposure to one side, it's unavoidable, and evens out in
the course of the hundreds of events every day.. but no, Vegas does not
choose sides.

[lunchbawks]

Randolph?>??????????? Hello???

[sweetjones55]

this post proves the line is balanced.. because there are reasons to take
Memphis, Boston lost to them last year, I remember. Vegas will of course
allow some overexposure to one side, it's unavoidable, and evens out in
the course of the hundreds of events every day.. but no, Vegas does not
choose sides.

Do you think that the linesmakers believed they would get equal action setting the line at Boston -3? Yes or No?

Don't forget Goat Milk is pretty sharp and not everyone thinks like him, most don't realize that Memphis matches up half decent with Boston.

[lunchbawks]

Do you think that the linesmakers believed they would get equal action setting the line at Boston -3? Yes or No?

shut the f-ck up!

[Snowball]

Just please answer the question and stop typing up generalizations about vig and action.

Do you think that the linesmakers believed they would get equal action setting the line at Boston -3? Yes or No?

it's -3 because it's at Memphis and they are fresh. if it were at Boston, it would
have started around -6/-7.. i know you think they started at -2.5 to suck in all the early bettors on Boston, but if it doesn't move higher than -3, then yes
I believe Vegas achieved dollar volume equilibrium at -3 regardless of whatever
cheesy offshore numbers from these banana republic outfits display on their websites.

[sweetjones55]

it's -3 because it's at Memphis and they are fresh. if it were at Boston, it would
have started around -7/-8.. i know you think they started at -2.5 to suck in all the early bettors on Boston, but if it doesn't move higher than -3, then yes
I believe Vegas achieved dollar volume equilibrium at -3 regardless of whatever
cheesy offshore numbers from these banana republic outfits allow us to see on their websites.

So Memphis was an 11.5 dog @ Dallas like a week ago, don't forget Dallas was the worst team ATS last year at home.

And you are trying to tell me Memphis would be a 7 point dog @ Boston. You do not make sense, think about what you are saying here.

[BernardMadoff]

Do you think that the linesmakers believed they would get equal action setting the line at Boston -3? Yes or No?

Don't forget Goat Milk is pretty sharp and not everyone thinks like him, most don't realize that Memphis matches up half decent with Boston.

Somewhat in theory yes. Depends on what you mean by equal action, I assume you mean number of bets then of course not, but we know the money being wagered on either side is what matters. When they put out a number what I think they try to do is have in mind which way they think it will move, a line of -3 is good for them, because the thinking is it will move closer to -4, but we know 3 is a key number to cross, so now you got people buying a point and by that it starts to work in their favor again. Thats their gamble if anything, not picking sides.

[dreamcool]

Memphis should win this game.

[sweetjones55]

Somewhat in theory yes. Depends on what you mean by equal action, I assume you mean number of bets then of course not, but we know the money being wagered on either side is what matters. When they put out a number what I think they try to do is have in mind which way they think it will move, a line of -3 is good for them, because the thinking is it will move closer to -4, but we know 3 is a key number to cross, so now you got people buying a point and by that it starts to work in their favor again. Thats their gamble if anything, not picking sides.

No I don't mean number of bets, I mean $ wagered. I do not believe they thought they would get equal $ wagered at Boston -3. I think they are picking a side on this game, Memphis.

[sweetjones55]

Snowball, don't take any of this personal by the way. Just NBA conversation, not trying to criticize you here in the least bit. We all have our opinions.

[BernardMadoff]

No I don't mean number of bets, I mean $ wagered. I do not believe they thought they would get equal $ wagered at Boston -3. I think they are picking a side on this game, Memphis.

It does appear thats what their doing. Also remember the bigs that are out for Boston. They really do tinker with numbers, which some dont believe. Matchups.

[sweetjones55]

It does appear thats what their doing. Also remember the bigs that are out for Boston. They really do tinker with numbers, which some dont believe. Matchups.

At the end of the day all the linesmakers and sportsbook owners are inherit gamblers.

[ayuntalo]

SJ i just took Memphis..
dont know if this is a valid point for you but..
different variables in this game..at the end i picked memphis knowing that celtics frontline are banged up and memphis fronline offense is good..i think that will be a big factor